[QUOTE=Ravenman]
But the word “realistically” depends to a significant degree on how much we are willing to spend. Two examples. Let’s say we want to go to Mars. Fine, it’ll cost, say, $100 billion and 20 years. But if we want to go to Mars in 15 years, is it realistic? It can be if we’re willing to spend, say, $400 billion. If we want to go in 5 years, well, that’s just not possible at any price.
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I don’t think this is the case with solar. It’s like saying ‘well, we could build a bridge to the moon if we were just willing to spend enough’. True, it’s theoretically possible to build a bridge to the moon, but with current technology it’s not feasible either from an engineering or fiscal standpoint. It might as well be impossible, for all practical purposes.
Same with solar, given the state of the art today…with the caveat that we are talking about something far beyond just doubling our tripling the current amount of energy produced. If you mean ‘we could ramp up solar power to meet, say, 5% of our energy needs’, then I agree. That’s do-able and feasible, though it would cost a lot. If you mean ‘we could ramp up solar to meet, say, 20% or more of our energy needs in 2 decades’ then I’d say it’s in the realm of ‘we COULD build a bridge to the moon’.
As an example, and from memory (sorry, to lazy), Spain’s new solar plant cost something like $40 million Euro’s and puts out something like 11 MW. It’s damn big to, and the cost doesn’t include maintenance. It’s fairly impressive (I think it’s way cool, in fact), and they have a bigger one that does like 20 MW (costs more as well, of course). IIRC, 11 MW can produce enough energy for something like 6000 homes. You can do the math, but think about just trying to build enough plants to meet 20% of the needs of the US…that’s something like 20+ million houses. At 6000 homes (or even 12000 homes for the larger plants) that’s a boat load of solar plants, ehe?
And where would you put them all? And where would you get the materials for building them all? And the people to staff them all, maintain them all, etc etc? Then there would be the infrastructure need and probably a host of other things I’m not aware of. It’s not just a matter of cost, IMHO.
-XT