Hey Fins and Gorsnak, my sincere apologies if my previous post came out as angry and snarky. I think it did but it wasn’t my intent; I just get really pissed off seeing the mouth only masters or, yesterday, a group of about 15 hikers at Mt Royal with no masks and no distancing, or seeing crappy, indifferent behaviour on the news most nights.
I was being an asshole.
No worries. You didn’t seem snarky or assholish to me. Frustrated, sure, but then that’s hardly an uncommon (or unjustified) feeling these days. As for me, it’s not so much that I’m depending on a vaccine in the near future as that I think we’re really seriously fucked if one doesn’t show up, regardless of how well governments plan.
Also, modern medical science is really, really amazing, and I don’t think the comparison to HIV is valid given the way HIV mutates all over the place. We know SARS-CoV-2 isn’t mutating at that sort of rate. We have vaccines for other similar coronaviruses, albeit those specific viruses infect dogs and cows, not humans. There are huge numbers of really smart, really motivated people working on this problem using methods that have worked in the past. The sheer scope of the effort is staggering. Over 200 vaccines are under development. 60 are already in human trials, though half of those are only phase 1. It’s true they’re not guaranteed to succeed, and it’s true that it’s prudent to plan for worst-case scenarios. But I don’t think it’s pollyannaish to be optimistic about the likelihood of an effective vaccine in widespread distribution within 12 months.
First of all, more emphasis on fast, available testing. The fact that they’re REDUCING testing now is a disgrace, and it’s going to kill people.
Then a massive, massive increase in contact tracing, across the board. Billions needs to be put into this. Every single confirmed case must be traced and a database needs to be put together that can provide epidemiologists and planners with information, as real time as possible, as to where infections are spreading. Provinces can then base their decisions based on faster, more accurate info.
The feds have now approved and purchased millions of rapid tests, but I have not heard of deployment plans yet. This definitely should have been done sooner. I think Ontario rationing testing like they have been to be bizarre and it will be Ford’s downfall.
I’m all for contact tracing, my issue is that it’s closing the barn door after the chickens have caught on fire. If I’m a super spreader and take a bus for 60 minutes to get to work, my trail is going to get cold very quickly vs the automated testing channels. It will help with known groups - restaurants, bars, schools, fitness classes - where contacts have left real names and numbers.
@RickJay I hope that they are listening to all of these ideas. We need to pursue all options.
To both of you, tensions are high and sometimes intensity can be seen that way, and I can be seen the same way. As long as everyone is trying to be helpful and not being a maskhole, it’s all we can ask. I’m positive we will get through this as long as we work together as a society.
Being able to hash things out on the SDMB is cathartic, and I thank all of you for the opportunity.
Here’s a Canadian guy who is going against the grain.
The harm caused by lockdowns is much worse than the disease of COVID-19. That’s the argument from numerous public health officials and economists around the world, including an Alberta expert in infectious disease and critical care, Dr. Ari Joffe of the Stollery Children’s Hospital and the University of Alberta.
“I’m truly worried the (lockdown) approach is going to devastate economies and the future for our children and our grandchildren,” says Joffe, who has practised at the Stollery for 25 years and has now written a review paper on the impacts of the lockdown.
The cost of lockdowns in Canada is at least 10 times higher than the benefit in terms of population health and well-being, he estimates, at least if you account for numerous variables such as economic recession, social isolation and impacts on life expectancy, education and the full gamut of health-care priorities.
If you look at the issue worldwide, lockdowns will cause at least five times and, more likely, as much as 50 times more harm than benefit.
The article goes on to say that the guy was on board with the measures in the early days, when he feared the IFR might be two to three percent.
The Edmonton Journal appears to come down on his side:
The risk to children from influenza each year is greater than the risk of COVID-19, he says. If an individual is less than 65 and has no co-morbidities their COVID risk is also low. The focus should be on protecting people over the age of 65, he says, while also respecting their right to live as they choose.
In speaking out, Joffe will no doubt get some anxious and angry blowback, but he’s making a significant contribution.
More facts, and less fear, will assist us in this debate. More focus on all the impacts of public health policies, not a myopic obsession with one single factor such as case counts, is also well advised. Joffe and others are leading us in that direction, which is the sanest way out of the COVID-19 crises.
I wonder if there has been, or is now developing, a divide in thinking between regions in Canada? I’m afraid I don’t know much about public affairs there, but I imagine there is no reason to believe things would be different there in that regard than, say, in the US.
never mind, old post
I completely understand why some people believe that lockdowns do more damage than the actual disease.
The thing is, I don’t know if we have enough information yet to accurately assess that.
Every such person that I’ve seen talks ONLY about the actual deaths from COVID. But the death count may – potentially – turn out to be a significantly smaller part of the overall damage than most people realize. There are already reports that some survivors have heart damage from the disease, including people who were young, athletic, and healthy before.
Obviously it’s too early to tell how many people will have such issues, or whether such issues will be permanent. But it very well may be years, if not a few decades, before we can fully calculate the overall health damage from COVID.
This one of the two big X factors, the other being that we’ve no idea if or when a vaccine will be available.
It’s worth having this discussion, though - or, more precisely, it’s worth listening to epidemiologists and statisticians who can estimate and project what different scenarios will do, given the best information available, rather than the two approaches of “lock everything down and send everyone a CERB check” and the Trumpist approach of pretending there’s no virus at all.
There will never be complete medical consensus. Plenty of paediatric experts are against making kids wear masks at school. The costs of the lockdown are high and hard to truly measure. So is the long term cost of a new and novel illness. Saving lives is not worth any cost but strong public health measures were the correct strategy for Covid.
It is foolish to think regions or countries exist in isolation. Sweden did not close businesses. I sympathize with this approach. They have a largely compliant, conformist, well-informed and homogenous population (compared to other countries). They had a much higher death rate per capita than neighbours (but it is rarely pointed out they still did better than many regions), mainly in the elderly. It is worth pointing out businesses and the Swedish economy still suffered greatly despite more open policies. This is the nature of globalized news and economies and incorporates how many Swedes decided to reduce visits. And this process is playing out in States which initially eschewed restrictions.
The important thing is to draw the correct lessons for how to do better should this happen again. China does need to shutter its wet markets. It hasn’t. Canada needs to monitor the global situation and cannot always trust foreign governments to do as good a job. Contact tracing showed great worth in South Korea, who perhaps did among the best. Having PPE is important. So is enough honesty, competency and transparency that when you offer reassurance, people are generally reassured.
Today’s paper said Quebec has had more deaths per capita than the US! Most were in the elderly - another reason to eschew nursing homes in la belle province.
Things aren’t looking so good:
Covid tracker:
Just curious: how many Canadopers have downloaded the Covid trackers/alert app?
Nope, no desire to download the app.
Things are a little worse, but only that. I think things are going to turn out okay.
At the end of October, it was around 5 million. At that point, only about 2,800 people had input a one-time key (designating that they were diagnosed with COVID-19), so they definitely want more widespread usage and key entries. Unfortunately, there appear to be widespread misunderstandings related to the privacy mechanisms in place in the app.
We don’t know how many people who were in contact with those 2,800 based on the chosen criteria because of the privacy restrictions. While we don’t know, it’s safe to assume that they many of them had contacts and that some of those contacts got tested due to the alert. For the minimal cost involved, I’d call it a win even if it doesn’t grow in usage, but there is no good reason that it shouldn’t.
I can’t see a single reason not to download it and will do so if Georgia ever gets its shit together and leverages the Apple/Google framework. It’s not a cure for COVID-19, but a tool that can find connections that manual contact-tracing, even when done exceptionally, can not.
Uhh, he asked about Canadian members of this board, if I understand correctly. So what 5 million are you talking about? Then you start talking about Georgia?
I won’t download it. I am not trusting Bluetooth distance guesswork to decide whether I go to work tomorrow.
We are going into a new 28 day lock down in Toronto starting tomorrow…
I have not, but only because I do not carry my cellphone with me regularly enough for the app to be useful. I am strict in my mask-wearing, social distancing and hand sanitation, but only have my cellphone on my person about 5% of the times that I would be interacting with others.
Most of my younger friends/colleagues/acquaintances have the app.
I installed the app on all of our phones the day it was released. I see no reason for not installing it. I believe privacy is preserved completely and it identifies the need to get tested if there is an exposure.
Is there a good reason why schools are still partially in-person? This decision doesn’t make sense to me, unless it is politically motivated.
It’s scientifically motivated. Schools being open is very important and don’t seem to be much of a vector for covid