Canada and the Coronavirus

The article implies it, saying that trust is down 10%, and for the first time a majority distrust the government.

But I did a quick search, and it appears to be bullshit. Here’s an angus reid poll from June 2019:

And here’s one from 2016:

So even at the high point of trust (right after Trudeau’s election before he had a chance to screw things up), we couldn’t muster a majority. Here’s a nice chart:

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Screen-Shot-2016-04-17-at-1.22.42-PM.png

From that, it would appear that the last time a majority of Canadians trusted government to do the right thing was around 1972.

Also note how closely we track America, despite having very different governments at times.

I wouldn’t trust them if they imposed ‘No reproduction without permission’ either. How twisted - In The Handmaid’s Tale they were the good guys.

I have great faith in technology. It’s going to save us. But to do so, data reforms need to include limiting third parties - which are too much unknown - “truth in labelling” and putting privacy first (consent, limiting collection to specific and demonstrated needs, limiting distribution, length of time of record retention, accountability, accessibility, etc.)… Until technology appropriately prioritizes privacy (and the avoidance of neuromarketing gimmicks) - users are going to remain skeptical even when the uses and benefits are important, such as with pandemics.

The Canadian government is far from perfect but in the main is trustworthy and competent. Lots of people think the government isn’t telling us everything they know about aliens or specific terrorist events… but I’d prefer they focused on good government.

“And the Dopie for Biggest Understatement in a Thread goes to…”

It is becoming increasingly apparent that the government has REALLY screwed up vaccine acquisition and distribution (and is being very secretive about what’s actually going on.). Canada is among the worst countries in the developed world for vaccination rates. The USA will get rid of the pandemic before we do, by a very substantial margin.

I am starting to doubt I’ll be vaccinated in 2021.

I’ve never even heard an actual plan to vaccinate people aside from hospital workers and people in long term care homes.

I saw that, and made me very upset. My kids are there and it sucks when there is no end in sight.

Canada had the good sense to fund vaccine research, order different vaccines and get many doses per capita. There is probably a good reason these contracts are not being made public, though. Canadians can be too fair minded and even naive when it comes to assuming good will on the part of people or producers. These traits likely apply to some governments as well.

Some industries, even countries, are anything but naive and have been known to seek advantage. In a global world, having some strong domestic industries is clearly important and limits Canada’s negotiating power when production occurs in distant lands. This is regrettable, but one hopes the right lessons are learned. (Buy Canadian.)

I’m struggling to understand the point there. The bottom line is the government is failing at the most important thing it’s been asked to do in the last fifty years.

The vaccinations are very important and I wish the government was doing a much better job on this issue. I don’t think it’s for lack of desire - they know it’s important and invested in research. I don’t think it’s lack of effort - they spent a lot of money and political capital. I would not call it the biggest task in fifty years, but agree many would. I think everyone should be vaccinated, but the actual efficacy and long term value are still unknowns.

So what is the problem? The government says it thought Health Canada would take more time to approve vaccines. Perhaps, but they were aware of the pressures to do so quickly. Canada once had a thriving drug industry in Montreal, now it has shadows.

Singapore and New Zealand also have low vaccination rates, but are small places which have handled things better.

It is not impossible to conclude that the US or other countries are benefitting from drug company decisions to the detriment of Canadians. This view could be wrong, the government should publish details of its contracts - did Canada bargain badly? Or are they just simply a lower priority? The US is clearly a much larger player. Canada hits well above its weight, but has limited influence - some residual goodwill - and is probably willing to pay yet even more because of acute political concerns.

So what to do? This won’t be the last pandemic - it’s the fourth one here in 18 years. I can’t fault the government for trying to get doses from the programs and research it has funded even though I think poorer countries need and deserve urgent vaccination too. How should things change in the future to allow a better response, since we agree this one is suboptimal?

Let’s break this down.

The amounts spent were a miniscule fraction of the total amounts spent on the COVID-19 disaster, much of it wasn’t spent until just the last three months, and my honest impression of the scattering of money is that a lot of this spending was politically motivated, though it’ll take awhile to sort out the truth.

  1. Canada has a thriving drug industry. I know there are some players in politics and the media who like to claim we don’t; it’s not true. There is literally an area of Mississauga called “Pill Hill” because there are so many pharma companies there.

  2. It i clearly the case that lack of domestic production of vaccines hasn’t prevented a lot of countries from getting their citizens vaccinated.

Handling lockdowns and whatnot (rather clearly wayyyy easier for an isolated island nation like NZ) is a different matter from vaccinations. And actually, there is already some justifiable anger in NZ over the vaccine rollout being too slow.

Huh? And so why is Spain ahead of us? Israel?

The buck stops with the government, and the results aren’t there. If every country was in the same boat, that would be one thing. They aren’t. Let’s call this for what it is.

I’ve done consulting work for at least 5 Pharma companies on Pill Hill over the last 25 years. Glaxo was the only one with manufacturing facilities, sold to Bora last year.

Most Canadian Pharma companies are subsidiaries of foreign companies and perform marketing, sales, and wholesaling only. There are some R&D based companies, but they are in the minority.

Canada does seem slow compared to its peers but asking why Israel is doing better shows you haven’t really looked into it. Besides their impressive electronic medical records system, they are in a specific deal with Pfizer for vaccine supply in exchange for patient data. Israel basically agreed to be the mass rollout trial.

Israel is of ciourse the most extreme example, but Canada couldn’t have inked a similar deal? If were a TENTH as far along wed be in twice as good a state.

We might never know, since the government won’t release much information.

I’m going to go ahead and say no, they couldn’t have. Canada couldn’t have offered the rapid vaccination program Pfizer required nor legally allowed to hand over the patient data.

I think the initial reaction of the government to Covid was quite reasonable given what was known at the time and the difficulties involved. I think the manner in which money was later distributed had many problems. Political motivations account for at least a few of them. I can think of at least two easy changes that would have helped me much more.

Vaccines are popularly portrayed as a panacea. They are not. It is still very impressive a viable mRNA vaccine was produced in record time, and this will help us in the future. Most people think new science leads to rapid change in medical practice - but the average time between research idea and widespread adoption actually tends to be about fourteen years.

Canada markets and sells drugs but no longer produces very many. Pharmacologists have told me we could not currently mass produce a vaccine here. Manufacturing has long been sent to countries with lower costs in a very cost conscious and competitive industry.

I agree the situation is more difficult to manage in Canada than New Zealand. I would suggest Spain might have more influence over a manufacturing company located in Belgium than Canada does. But they also had an earlier and more severe outbreak. I would imagine there is a lot of complexity around these sorts of deals.

Also agree many countries without domestic production are doing far better. But why?

A note on vaccine efficacy.

Gonna keep the candles lit for our Canadian friends. Looks like the apocalypse could be just around the corner.

Imgur

OTTAWA – With COVID-19 variants of concern continuing to spread across Canada, new national modelling shows that even the current level of public health measures will not be enough to prevent a resurgence of the virus nationwide.

The dire warning comes as part of the Public Health Agency of Canada’s (PHAC) new pandemic projections.

Looking at only non-variant COVID-19 spread, if Canadians maintain their current number of contacts the epidemic will continue to come under control. Factoring in the more contagious variants, the trajectory changes considerably and cases will spike again under Canadians’ current level of precautions and restrictions.

Based on the current projections, the current pandemic controls may not be enough to fully control the variants. The long-range forecast predicts a “strong resurgence” in March and April in all provinces.

Accordingly, if people let their guards down and if public health measures are lifted the variants are forecasted to send infection rates spiking to levels far past what was seen in either the first or second waves.

This could result in up to 20,000 new daily cases by the spring. Currently the average daily case count is approximately 2,900 new cases a day across the country, which is an improvement from last month when some provinces were reporting nearly that many new infections in a day.

That is such a frightening shape to that curve.