Canada and the Coronavirus

I’m simply providing readers with information from original sources as opposed to someone on the internet who says they heard something on the radio.

There appears to be a benefit in having T cells available to attack the virus that is presenting spike proteins that the T cells recognize. However it is not immunization as it is commonly accepted. And it is proven and admitted that the benefits are waning quickly. It is unfortunate that the mRNA “vaccines” present the immune system with such a narrow target as just the spike protein. It will be easier for the virus to mutate just one aspect. Although. Maybe if it mutates that aspect, it may become less problematic. Hopefully.
I am a vaccine believer. I am more vaccinated than most people due to traveling and working all over the world. Vaccines are in the top two or three greatest health advances ever. But not everything works. Or works well enough. Evidence is adding up, that these particular mRNA vaccines are not the best solution. A somewhat helpful solution. But not the solution.
Even the more conventional Sputnik vaccine is showing better long term protection. But weird politics is holding back that option. And other options.

A wise man once said:

“The Ontario Science Table (q.v. today’s Globe ed.) states that unvaccinated people are five times more likely to be infected, eleven times more likely to be hospitalized and 26 times more likely to need intensive care.

In Quebec, the risk of infection is 4.7 times higher and risk of hospitalization 16.2 times higher.

In Alberta, just 12 of 262 people in their 50s admitted to ICUs (over the last four months) were fully vaccinated. Of 121 ICU admissions of people in their 30s just four were vaccinated.

Approximately 3.5m Canadians over twelve have not received any shots and are driving the pandemic. While this effect is clear (especially in cases per capita), I notice some government statistic sites breakdown vaccination status by number of cases, which is misleading since about 85% of Ontarians are vaccinated. The numbers above are clear and not easy to logically debate.

I also read an interesting piece on why health care workers are more reluctant than they should be. The reasons are not great, and reflect human logic, wrong thinking that can be explained - and is important to understand and address. We have had occasional doctors saying the evidence was not yet here. It is.”

We have been hearing that since the vaccines rolled out. No one doubts it’s true. Getting vaccinated vastly improves your odds, but there’s still odds.

Just back from reading latest covid stats on Alberta government web site. Case outcomes by vaccine status. last 120 days.
New cases show 58.54% percent are considered unvaccinated.
Active cases 56.81% considered unvaccinated.
Hospitalized 68.72% considered unvaccinated.
70.9% of population is fully vaccinated. 83.4% above age 12.
These figures do not show a very positive effect for the mRNA vaccines. If at all.
The hospitalized figure is sad. But comorbidity problems will increase these numbers, and skew the vaccinated versus unvaccinated ratio. Positive or no vaccine benefits can be overwhelmed. I suspect in worst case, a still effective vaccine response can help at least a bit.

I’m going to show simple back of the envelope math. Very few under 12 are hospitalized, so I’m going to use the over 12 vaccination of 83%.

hospitalization:

70%/17% vs 30%/83% = 4.1 vs .36 = 11x lower relative risk of hospitalization.

I guess this is where we fundamentally disagree. If the vaccine reduces infection by 5x, hospitalization by 12x, and death by 20x, how can you dispute the benefit?

OG Covid had an R0 (natural reproduction rate) of about 2, Alpha, and then Delta increased the R0 to about 4. The Re (effective reproduction rate) in Ontario today is under 1.1. Without the vaccines and with the late spring rise in Delta we would have seen people dead in piles as we did early in the pandemic in places like Italy and New York City.

Yes, the vaccine isn’t sterilizing and I wish it was. But it unquestionably works and the booster - or in reality the third dose of a three dose regime - just makes it better. I’m not sure who you are spiting by not getting it.

The mRNA vaccine production will also allow a very quick turn around if an Epsilon variant arises that is more virulent. I think the Noble Prize isn’t enough for the brilliant scientists who pioneered this.

I personally love the argument that we shouldn’t vaccinate so that those that actually survive have better immunity to the next wave. Because, for some reason, not having people die and having better immunity to the next wave is worse…or something.

The difference is actually even greater than that if you control for age. Even among the adult population, the unvaccinated portion skews significantly younger than the vaccinated. When you compare within age demographics, the difference in relative risk of hospitalization across most age groups is closer to 30x lower for vaccinated. Really old vaccinated people (and really old people have a super high vax rate) are still significantly vulnerable, and so skew the numbers a bit when viewing the population as a whole.

For a detailed breakdown of numbers across age demographics, this CBC story using Alberta stats from September gives a good picture:

TL:DR
Someone my age (50’s) in Alberta in September who was fully vaccinated was 33X less likely to be hospitalized, 50X less likely to go into ICU, and 31X less likely to die.

Another way to think of this is that the vaccine shifts your risk profile to look like that of a person several decades younger. The idea that the vaccines aren’t helping much is so very, very wrong.

Anyone who can post these two lines one right after the other:

and then conclude that vaccinations are “useless” is simply incapable of doing, or understanding, the math involved in controlling for age.

This is why I’ve pretty much given up trying to convince these people, and am now in favor of just coercing them.

They can’t understand, they won’t just go along, they must be made to comply, or simply be shunned by society.

As a wise man once said “fighting ignorance is taking a lot longer than we thought”.

You point to a peer-reviewed study…it’s wrong
You point to government stats…they’re lies

I’m still trying to reason with the unreasonable.

As soon as I try to explain this, I get accused of “moving the goalposts”.

True.
For many folks, they really cannot understand the math. They’re just not good at it. Math was, is and always will be a confusing jumble of numbers for them.

You cannot use math to convince them of anything when they simply cannot even grasp a concept like percentage.

A wise man once said;

These very recent numbers quoted in the Globe and Mail seem relevant, and though separated by age are different from those others quote for some reason.

Chapman’s Ice Cream has instituted a policy of paying for tests for unvaccinated employees, and also paying vaccinated employees, who don’t need tests, $1 / hour more than the unvaxxed employees.

Their position is that way, the unvaxxed don’t lose their jobs, but the vaxxed get a bonus for not needing the expense of tests.

They have taken a tremendous amount of abuse, but also are receiving support.

If they can positively identify who sent abusive comments, they shout take out a full page newspaper ad and publish the comments, along with the name and address of these fine folks.

I notice that it is not specified that any of these people were in ICU for Covid. I was in ICU twice in the last 8 months. Not for Covid. At those times I was not vaccinated. It made no difference to my medical issue at those times I was in ICU. These numbers are meaningless as to vaccine effectiveness, unless they are specifically related to Covid cases as the reason for being in ICU.

However these numbers do specify that Covid is the reason. They diverge greatly from the non specific numbers cited by Dr. Paprika.

The article implies it is due to Covid, q.v.

Federal government introduces a bill to make it a crime to harass health care workers, plus mandate 10 days paid sick leave for employees in federally regulated workplaces (banks, airlines, federal gov’t, etc.)

There’s this article from September that makes it clear they’re comparing ICU admission for COVID.

Just seven fully vaccinated Albertans in their 50s have been admitted to an intensive care unit with COVID-19 since mid-May.

That compares to 181 unvaccinated people of the same age — despite the fact that there are far fewer of them.

Fully vaccinated 50-somethings were admitted to ICU at a rate of less than 3 per 100,000.

The rate among the unvaccinated, by comparison, was 139 per 100,000.

Claiming they’re discussing anything else in these comparisons is nothing more than Conspiracy Theorist style nonsense. Why would anyone compare the vaccination status of all ICU admissions? That only makes sense if you’re already committed to the narrative that The Powers That Be are deliberately faking the numbers for some nefarious reason.

This made even more clear when you look at this chart:

For the age range of 12-39, it shows zero ICU admissions* for the previous 120 days. If they were counting every ICU admission rather than just COVID admissions, this means no one between the ages of 12-39 needed an ICU for any reason in 4 months. That’s just not credible.

ETA: and I just re-read the title of that chart, which explicitly references it being COVID admissions. :smiley:

ETA2: *for fully vaccinated people. I’m off my game today!