Their per capita case count is close to ours today with a lower positivity (higher testing rate), but the State is not publishing all of the data since it makes DeSantis look bad. They also have a significantly higher rate of recovered people.
Our hospitalization rate is significantly lower at 328 vs 1445. Ontario is 14M people vs 20M in Florida, so they are 3x per capita. Death rates are about 4x worse in Florida.
My mother is in Florida for the winter and I’ve got a trip down booked for February, so I keep a pretty close on their numbers.
The severity of Omicron is unclear
• Recent data from South Africa suggesting about 25% less severity cannot be extrapolated to northern high-income
countries due to differences in population age and degree of immunity/previous infection
• Early Danish data suggests the same severity as previous strains
We modelled two options: (i) the same as Delta and (ii) 25% less than Delta
Florida has a significantly older population. The median age in Ontario is 38.6. and over-65 makes up 14% of the population.
The median age in Florida is 42. But 21% of the people are over 65.
But the most critical age is 80 and above, which makes up the vast number of Covid deaths. In Ontario, 1.9% of the population is over 80. the death rate per case for over-80 is 22%, vs 4.1% for 65-79, 0.4% for 40-59, and negligible for ages under that.
In Florida, 4.9% of the population is over 80. So all else being equal, we would expect the death rate in Florida to be significantly higher just because of the large number of very vulnerable people who live there.
Given that the main determinant of covid outcomes is age, any regional comparisons have to take those differences into account.
It would be interesting to rank all the states and provinces by percentage of population over 80, then compare death rates between them. That would probably be a better measure of the effectiveness of policy than just using per-100,000 population rates, which is what I see being used for comparison almost all the time.
Maybe if I have some free time I’ll take a crack at that.
Have to admit I was 80 to 90% wrong. Important to admit when I am wrong. Have to demonstrate to myself and others that I can see I am wrong and self correct. I still do not consider the mRNA vaccines to be vaccines. But they are having very good effect in lowering hospital admissions. Wish they did not wain in efficiency. I was looking at the numbers wrong. As I kept looking at them I finally realized it. Still have major beefs with the mRNA vaccines. Wish Sputnik V would get approved. Glad that better hospital treatments are being adopted. Though they could do even better.
Overall I still believe we are not doing nearly as well as we can be. But some things are seeping in to make better outcomes.
Again. I was wrong. Thanks for replying to my posts, even if at the time I disagreed. I do come here to get information. And you folks as always did provide alternatives and info to me.
Thank you for posting this. The only criticism I have is your claim that mRNA vaccines are not vaccines. A vaccine is anything that stimulates the adaptive immune system to specifically target the causative agent of an infectious disease. It could be a live, attenuated virus, and inactivated virus, a part of a virus, a small bit of protein, or mRNA.
Thanks for taking the time to look and come back to tell us. I’ve been debating this with people who keep saying that because the vaccine isn’t perfect, it is useless. We all wish it was perfect, but it has prevented deaths in Canada.
I think it is fair to say that omicron will be contagious but not initially cause massive increases in hospitalization and ICU admission (since these have been modest).
I’m not much worried about omicron TBH. I worry about the next mutation which is as contagious as omicron but causing earlier and more severe pathophysiology. Vaccines never were a panacea but getting a booster makes sense for most people.
Gym was almost empty today. Probably holidays mixed with exams and odd weather, but maybe people are again worried by the 50% capacity constraints coming into effect.
Technically, yes they produce those effects. But due to their short time span of good effect, I would consider them more in the therapeutic category? Maybe also prophylactic? They are in an odd position really. The biggest contradiction for me of being a vaccine is their poor protection of getting and passing the virus. Pre charging the immune system is a benefit though.
Hopefully Omicron infection will cause mild effect, but give good immunity to it and other Covid variants. If it is not so mutated that the immune system treats it entirely separate from other variants.
That has nothing to do with the fact that they are mRNA vaccines. Flu vaccine immunity starts to wane at about six month too. However, by the time your vaccine starts to become less effective, your flu season is over.
Hepatitis vaccines are a three dose vaccine with second dose taken at 1 month and third dose taken at 6 months after the initial dose. The mRNA covid vaccines are turning out to have the same schedule. I suspect that another shot may be needed every year like the flu or maybe every two years.
The AZ and J&J are not mRNA vaccines and, in fact, are less effective at inducing high antibody levels which helps prevent infection all together. So, again, it has nothing to do with mRNA.
So after your regime of Hep vaccine do you still catch and spread Hepatitis. I hope not. Because I got that vaccine and others.
Because the other Covid vaccines are even less effective does not mean the mRNA are good. Better but not as good as most vaccines. 70 countries are using the Sputnik V and having better results for longevity and very high efficacy. Still not approved even though it has now been more thoroughly tested than the first emergency use ones were. Politics over human lives.
I do think mRNA technology will improve. But it may not be the best solution in this instance. It has a bright future for other things.
Here’s a 2019 article on the durability of vaccine protection in general. There’s a lot more attention paid to this issue nowadays since COVID hit, of course. Fundamentally, the reason there’s been so much public misunderstanding of how COVID vaccines work is because there’s a lot of public misunderstanding of how any vaccines work.
A lot of vaccine-misunderstanding people have been complaining about the less-than-100% effectiveness and durability of the COVID vaccines as though that somehow medically invalidates them. But what they don’t realize is that almost all vaccines have less than 100% effectiveness and durability, sometimes considerably less. It’s just that we generally don’t notice that because high vaccination levels mean that transmission becomes rare. So most of us never actually encounter, say, mumps or whooping cough or polio germs to test our immunity levels.
Couple that with most people being bad at math, error bars and basically treating technological marvels as embedded natural systems they can treat as magic and we’re where we are.
Legally that’s the case but the unvaxxed have functionally undermined it by unnecessarily hogging hospital space.
My wife, who is still alive, survived a brutal four-month cancer battle in the hospital the whole time, ten years ago. If the same thing had happened to her in Alberta a couple of months ago, she’d be dead.
Ontario is up to 3124 cases of Covid today, a significant jump. Not looked closely at the numbers but have heard the unverified claim cases may double every three days or less.
It is worth saying that ICU numbers despite this have remained stable in Ontario. At one point it was claimed catching Covid was inevitable. I support the new changes but not necessarily further lockdown if hospitalization and ICU admissions do not increase despite increasing cases and test positivity.
I think it is too early to tell which way Omicron is going. There will be a lot of data coming out. I held out getting vaccinated till I could see more data. Ended up getting Moderna just because it seemed to last longer at the time. Another one I wanted was not allowed.