It’s a self-selected sample, which can wildly throw off reliability.
I mean, that’s what I thought we were doing. I have my QR code on my phone. The vaccination rate was above 80 percent. But the government seems to have no confidence in it, because they gave up this week and went back to shutting things down.
The sample selection can throw things off, but a really big sample will throw things off far less. Since the testing itself is far from perfect, the positivity rate still provides a rough measure of the likelihood of symptomatic people having it given so many tests, especially if they consider self testing, even if it is unavailable. It’s just a pre-test probability, but it is still significant. But not necessarily reassuring.
Here are some good visualizations of Covid in Alberta:
So far, this wave looks very different than the others. For example, in the last wave we had about 1100 people in hospital at peak, and about 280 in ICU. Right now we have at least 50% more people infected, but only 470 in hospital, and more importantly, only around 60 in ICU. Almost all are unvaccinated.
Self-selection isn’t overcome by larger sample sizes.
The problem that I see now, and I’ve missed anyone talking about is effective hospitalization/ICU capacity. The first waves hit hard but we had sufficient staffing in hospitals to deal with it. This wave, with it’s rapid spread is degrading the ability to use existing infrastructure.
Sure, city X has 1000 beds and 100 ICUs and we’re only seeing 400 hospitalizations and 40 ICUs used up. But if staffing had degraded to 70% you really only have 700 and 70 beds. It’s much tighter than straight numbers would have you think.
This wave feels like it’s going to be about staff. You’d never leave soldiers in theater for 2 years with no relief but that seems to have been what we’ve done with nurses and doctors.
The first point is ICU length of stay, which was 13 days in December, is currently averaging 6 days in Ontario. In the first wave, nearly all of the ICU Covid patients were intubated and now about half of them are. The number of ICU patients was about 320 in Ontario today, and has doubled since mid-December - but these patients are less ill than previously and this is pretty significant. 60% of the ICU patients are in the 20% who are unvaccinated, making the risk of being in the ICU if you are unvaccinated much higher.
If I have symptoms bad enough that I want to get tested but cannot, is this similar to the population that is actually being tested? The population being tested includes people who have to do so for work and travel, the hospitalized and many more people with mild symptoms who are deciding whether to self-isolate. It’s not a perfect match. But since a lot of the tests are in mildly symptomatic people, the positivity rate can still be used as a rough proxy as to how prevalent the disease is in the community and to what percentage of symptomatic people may have Covid. It is not like it is a perfect test for Omicron, many test negative once or twice than have a positive PCR.
From The Globe:
“Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliott says of the 319 patients in intensive care, 232 of them are not fully immunized against COVID-19 or have an unknown status, while 87 are double-vaccinated.”
That’s my feeling also. VLTs represent revenue to the province, darts and billiards don’t. So, keep the VLTs, the slot machines, the crap tables, the blackjack games, the poker games, and the roulette wheels going in the casinos, but the guy who wants to hit the corner bar for a beer and a game of pool after work? Well, he can have a beer, but not play pool. Or, if he absolutely must play something, he can play the VLTs.
Interestingly, the local race book has a pool table, which has been shut down. But it also has maybe three dozen slot machines, all of which use buttons to activate the game. Horseplayers make their wagers through touchscreen machines (winning horse race wagers can be cashed at the cash cage). But somehow, playing pool is a health risk, in a place where everybody is touching anything that can possibly be played.
The thing is, “touching” really isn’t a major vector for COVID.
The big difference between slot machines and darts/pool, is that slots players can, at least in theory, sit by themselves, at proper social distancing and play the slots without a lot of moving around, mixing or interacting with other patrons.
Darts and pool, by their very nature, require players to be up and about a lot more. And often the culture at such places have players from different groups mixing and matching, so there’s far more opportunities for the one infected player to interact with multiple other players.
I suppose you could have a rule where only one person could play at a time, but who wants to play pool by themselves?
If it’s unsafe to sit at a slot machine all night, it’s not safe to sit at a table drinking all night, either. At that point, the question is moot - the whole bar should be closed down.
If in fact the Ontario health care system is failing due to volume, it’s the fault of antivaxxers, and triaging them to the back of the line is not something I’d oppose.
Quebec is looking into charging the unvaccinated a financial penalty if they end up hospitalized with Covid.
About 10 per cent of adult Quebecers aren’t vaccinated, but they represent about half of all patients in intensive care, Legault said, adding that the unvaccinated should be forced to pay for the extra burden they are placing on the health-care system.
Not sure how this will fly with the Canada Health Act. But I think it’s definitely something worth looking at.
Denying the unvaccinated medical treatment is an ethical no-go. Giving them lower priority for respirators in a hypothetical where all the ICU beds are full is still problematic. That said, I do not have a great deal of personal empathy left for the cohort that is deliberately misinterpreting available facts, accepting or spreading disinformation. being excessively selfish or self-righteous and purportedly defending bogus Constitutional rights while ignoring any responsibilities to their families and fellow Canadians.
So what’s the ethics of delaying cancer surgeries, with the result that treatable cancers become untreatable? I resent that we’ve been put into this position.
Sure. But asking the unvaxxinated to pay more Is OK by me.
Strangely, I was never able to book a booster at the local facility where I got my first two shots. Maybe they’re no longer operating a mass vaccination clinic there. Best I could do was rebook an out-of-town appointment to someplace closer. Just got it about an hour ago. Moderna this time (full dose); first two were Pfizer. I didn’t look at pharmacies, just the Ontario-operated places.
I don’t personally have a problem with possible increased payments if legal and if applicable, paying for testing or enhanced lockdown for those unvaccinated without good cause. Frankly, I see encouraged vaccinations as a better alternative. I do not want to criticize a government handling complex situations and do not fully agree with all of the restrictions currently in place, while recognizing that making good decisions is challenging.
Means test the portion they pay, and/or cap it, so no one is actually ruined. Call it a health safety violation, not a charge for service, copay or tax.
Give the money so generated straight to front line workers.
Welp, I’m headed your direction, I think. A space just opened up on a heli-ski trip starting Saturday with old friends I haven’t seen in 3 years due to Covid. I’ll do a PCR test here tomorrow (I hope), then drive Friday from Bozeman to Jasper AB, no stopping except bathroom breaks or take-out. Go to a hotel in Jasper and sit in my room and read, then right to the Lodge in Crescent Spur BC Saturday morning. They’re going to test everyone on arrival, and everyone including staff daily. Kind of crazy, I realize, but I’m vaxxed and boosted and starting to lose my mind sitting at home.
Make sure you download the ArriveCAN app and submit everything before you get to the border!
I sure will. I will try my damndest to not contribute to the pandemic! Trying to get a travel test tomorrow morning. Friday looks like a Cinderella day to travel from Banff to Jasper. that can be gnarly (or closed).