Had Jack Layton not died, the Conservatives would have feared the NDP. Should they still?
I don’t understand the trend of this thread. It is focusing on Harper vs the third party. Of course, living in the U.S., I am not up to date on the trends in Canada, but if Quebec stays NDP, Trudeau has no hope.
If the NDP holds solidly in PQ and Trudeau does well in the ROC, then Harper may lose to a coalition. If the left vote is split between the NDP and the Libs on a riding basis, then Harper may win a majority of seats despite not winning a majority of the popular vote.
Quebec turned to the NDP in the last federal election because the separatist movement is waning and they weren’t enamored by outsider Michael Ignatieff, whose French language skills are more European than Quebecois. Jack Layton was born in Montreal, and although his French wasn’t perfect, he knew the street vernacular.
Justin Trudeau will completely take Quebec back from the NDP, whose rise in the last election was an aberration. Trudeau is perfectly fluent in both languages, and that’s a huge selling point in Quebec, regardless of policy. Quebec is most definitely a socialist province and it’s anyone but the Conservatives. The separatist movement (Bloc Quebecois) appears to be dead now for the younger generation.
So, although the NDP are the opposition for now, they will return to third party status in the next election. It’s back to the Liberals and the Conservatives dueling for governance.
It’s going to be an interesting election. The left (Liberals and NDP) may be too split to defeat the right (Conservatives). Either way, I don’t think a majority government is in the cards for either the Liberals or the Conservatives.
ETA: I just saw your post Muffin: we don’t really do coalition governments in Canada, although it’s certainly within our constitutional rights.
I will respond further later (it actually seems you and I are on a similar page on most issues) but I had to address this. Those reports are not accurate. The Insite location is in the downtown East Side. It did not attract the drug dealers, addicts and prostitutes. They were already well established.
It was the coalition agreement in 2008 that forced Harper to prorogue the House, which in turn caused a WTF moment for the electorate concerning what Harper will do to hang on to power.
This is a one dimensional and unfair characterization of the 2011 election results in Quebec. The NDP also carved a huge chunk of votes off the Bloc Quebecois, which obviously cannot be explained by the language skills of their respective leaders.
Given that the majority of the populace was strongly opposed to the proposed coalition, I don’t think such an unpopular move would be anyone’s first choice.
First choice, certainly not, but something for Harper to consider when planning for the election, yes. I don’t think he wants to get caught with his pants down again in having to face a left that is somewhat united and getting into strategic voting during the election and voting as a block against following the election should Harper win a minority government. I expect that he will start running attack ads that poke away at both the Liberals and the NDP, and try to get those parties needling each other.
I like the way he has handled the economy over the years. I don’t like his social platform, but I’m not up in arms against it. So why am I scared of Harper? His war against science and his war against responsible government.
What deeply concerns me is that he is actively against protecting the environment. He has been cutting away at important long-term research projects, closed science libraries, and grossly weakened environmental legislation (including giving Minsters greater exemption discretion), e.g. the Experimental Lakes Area, several major research libraries, and the Navigable Waters Protection Act. Most egregiously, he has been gagging scientists (e.g. Canadian Ice Service briefings). In the last month I have had discussions with department heads of a med school and an engineering faculty, in which they were complaining about federal funding having to be tied to industry funding, which in turn severely restricted their ability to perform research. That’s not the direction I want Canada to go.
And Harper’s attacks on responsible government? Search Google Canada for “trained seals.” It’s tow the party line, or get out of the party, and Harper sets the party line. The sad thing is that this very serious problem exists in the other parties too. One of my friends left the NDP to sit as an independent when they insisted that he tow the party line on an issue that had nothing to do with a money or confidence vote. When Trudeau’s dad ran the Liberals, he considered back-benchers to be “nobodies.” This is not how I want democracy to work, but unfortunately all three major parties are not into government in which the elected MPs are responsible to the electorate of their riding, and instead require the MPs to be responsible to the party leader. Shame on all three parties for this.
In short, Harper has done well enough to get us though the day, but he will not take us into a good future, and that scares me. Will Trudeau do any better? I don’t know, but I expect that he will not do any worse, and at least he will be trying for a better future when it comes to the environment, so unlike Harper, Trudeau does not scare me.
"Are you scared of Justin Trudeau? " I guess it would depend on whether he has stopped beating his wife.
Now of course Trudeau does not beat his wife (unless he has a secret bigamous marriage to the Conservative Senator that was suspended from the Senate – oh, which one was that?). I only raise this to point out that the OP’s thread title is a loaded question that poison’s the well, and I applaud him for effectively illustrating that it is through this sort of technique that the Harpers are attacking Trudeau. I’d like to see strong policy debate, rather than attack ads.
Very true, although it was clear that a lot of voters in Quebec didn’t even know who their NDP candidate was, and although they may have been voting on NDP policy, I doubt it.
No, they liked jack and how he spoke and handled himself in the French language debate; that’s when the NDP ratings in Quebec really took off.
I say again, everyone wants the budget balanced, but no one wants their particular program or pet project cancelled or privatized. He’s not a slash and burn Thatcher Conservative, but he’s making small steps to reduce inefficiencies, sell off and privatize where possible, and get out of areas where he feels the government doesn’t belong.
My own crown corporation is being privatized and I actually understand the rationale. Governments cannot afford to be all things to everyone and if we’re going to survive beyond the next century then we need less government. Pension plans alone are killing us, especially provincial ones in Ontario, between teachers, OPG, and various government levels the little guy is paying the pensions of the elite. Not good. And that’s coming from a (for now) government employee!
The Conservative message playing up Harper’s experience and political effectiveness vs. Trudeau’s inexperience and supposed political ineffectiveness just makes me more likely to support Trudeau.
Why should I vote to support someone who is very good at doing things I don’t like, rather than someone who may not be as good at getting things done, but at least I can expect that what does get done will be something I like or can live with?
Bumping my old thread because Justin is back in the news today, probably providing fodder for some new Conservative attack ads.
Justin Trudeau is going to stop bombing ISIS and will restore relations with Iran.
ISIS? Not scared of them here. Our “terrorists” tend to be mental health cases that ISIS would probably reject for that exact reason. The only reason a shooter got all the way into the Parliament block is because there was too much radio traffic for the police to know what was going on. Taking advantage of chaos is a good strategy if you have some planes and are over the busiest air traffic corridor in the world. On the other hand, one man with a rifle wanders into a hallway and gets shot fifty times. It’s doubtful he ever would have found the closet Stephen Harper was hiding in.
Iran? Canada doesn’t have the history with Iran that the US has. If they do manage to build a nuke they’re certainly not going to use it on us. Canada could do some real good in this part of the world, providing a moderate voice in delicate negotiations. I don’t see a downside to talking to Iran.
However, I have a feeling this is already being spun in Conservative circles as some high octane fear mongering fuel. I have recently heard a radio ad about how anxious JT is to legalize marijuana (which is pretty much legal now anyhow) and how he’s not going to protect us from the menace of ISIS. Still not scared.
They’re running a rather inane attack ad on TV about how he’s “just not ready.”
I see no reason to assume that Justin Trudeau is anything like Pierre Trudeau.
I have no fear of Justin Trudeau, but I prefer the NDP and will vote accordingly.
It sounds like a lot of Canadians are willing to support the NDP. I’m not sure exactly why, but that’s how it’s appearing.
Trudeau really is young and inexperienced, though basically an honest idealist I think, while Harper is a right-wing loon – that’s pretty much it. Harper coming across as mild-mannered and moderate in public is a carefully cultivated scam. The guy still belongs to the same young-earth creationist fundamentalist church, last I heard, and his killing of science and research in Canada and ruthless muzzling of scientists’ ability to communicate with the public is now legendary. The only reason things like abortion and gay marriage are not being tabled in Parliament and banned is that Harper is also a political realist who knows he’d never be elected again – otherwise we’d be living in a place that seemed oddly like Texas, but colder.
The fact is that when the main parties piss off the voters long enough – even those that trusted Harper are finding him unpalatable, while the Liberals in recent years can’t seem to find a qualified leader to save their souls – then the NDP starts looking pretty good, especially when they have flag-bearers like Notley in Alberta who seems pretty sharp. Mulcair is a pretty smart guy, and he’s getting a boost from that rather miraculous NDP win Alberta. If only Jack Layton had lived, the NDP roll might be almost unstoppable.
ETA: To answer the OP, no, not scared of Justin. He seems harmless enough. Needs to grow old enough to shave before becoming PM. 
I also have the sneaking suspicion that Trudeau was chosen for party leadership more for his high name-recognition (and perhaps cross-linguistic appeal) than for anything substantive.
Well, I completely disagree with all of this. Labeling someone a “right wing loon” while keeping Canada at the top of the G8 countries’ list is incompatible.
Scientists work for the government. They are paid by the government. Are you allowed to speak publicly on behalf of your company? I know I’m not and I’m reminded every few months that if the press or public is asking questions then I need to direct them to the public relations department of my company. This argument about muzzling scientists is preposterous and completely incorrect.
And what the fuck do you know about the Prime Minister’s private views on abortion, gay marriage and anything else for that matter.
Go crawl back under your left-wing media rock.
ETA: I think you read too many many Facebook posts from ill-informed morons. Or maybe the Toronto Star.
How is it “incompatible”? Harper is politically astute, to the level of being conniving. Domestically, he’s also an information control freak. He has done good things for Canada. He’s also done some very bad things for Canada. He’s a mixed bag of political pragmatism surrounding a pretty extremist core. I still have a copy of the fundraising letter he wrote on behalf of the then Canadian Alliance (in 2002, IIRC) blasting climate science as “tentative and contradictory” and wrongly focused on CO2 “which is essential to life” and condemning the Kyoto Accord as a killer of jobs and entire economies. He could have been running for Republican governor of Texas with lines like that.
Nope. Companies have proprietary interests that belong to their owners and shareholders.
But the government, in case you never took a civics course, represents the public that elects it. The public also pays for everything it does. Government scientists informing the public is the whole reason we fund public science programs in the first place. Not to have their findings censored on issues that the ruling party wants to politicize. George Bush’s White House did the same damn thing to NRC reports on climate, but when it was exposed, the perp responsible had his ass kicked out and went to work for Exxon Mobil. But in this case the perp responsible seems to be Harper himself.
Priceless read here on Harper’s evangelicalism.
And who but Harper could possibly appoint a creationist as science minister! 
Charming. You right-wing types should learn to take criticism of your political heroes more calmly.
Bit too much. Rein that in, please.
No warning.