Roadfood, I offer the following anecdotes from the inside. My information is about 12 years old and drawn from my time hanging around the wrong crowd in high school/college.
1) There are four basic types of car vandals:
a) Teenagers that break in for fun. They hit vehicles rumored to be easy marks for some reason or another (back then, usually Japanese cars). These thrill-seekers go out of their way NOT to get caught and are easily deterred by barking dogs, nearby traffic, people walking around in the distance – and anti-theft devices. This type of thief will occasionally attempt to take the entire vehicle if it is very easy pickings. These were the type of vandals my “friends” were.
b) People breaking in to find valuables to fence (often drug addicts). Stereos and ALARMS were common targets. Sometimes they will put a car up on cinder blocks, deflate the tires, and remove valuable rims because of their high resale value. These guys are neither discriminate about what they break into, nor how they break into your vehicle. They will do lots of damage, and are not particularly scared of getting caught. The bright side is that these guys rarely steal the whole vehicle. I ran into a few of these now & then, as a few of the thrill-seekers I knew graduated into this grade of thief.
c) Criminals fleeing the law (or fleeing another criminal). Experienced criminals who have car-stealing knowledge will sometimes attempt to score an easy getaway ride. They always steal the entire car, but rarely leave any valuables to recover later. They usually dump the car within 20 miles of the point of theft.
d) Professional thieves. These guys normally target only high-dollar or vintage cars. They are the “hackers” of the car-stealing underground. They aim to steal the entire vehicle and get that vehicle into the automobile black market. These guys are intelligent, well-organized, and have access to many specialty tools and detailed engineering info. They often work in teams.
2) Now, with that background info in mind, let me answer the OP.
As of the early 90s, yes, an alarm deters SOME car vandals/thieves. A blinking alarm deters the young thrill-seekers almost without fail. An alarm can make a petty thief pass your car, also, if there are easier marks nearby. They may have the knowledge to disable an alarm, but messing with an alarm can eat up valuable time if the entire car is not the target.
Now, criminals in flight or professional car thieves don’t even consider alarms. A fleeing criminal may just take his chances and drive with the alarm blaring – it always stops eventually. A professional thief, OTOH, will have on hand the knowledge to beat the alarm when performing the theft.
One thing that may have made alarms less popular over the last 5 or so years is that alarm-beating knowledge has spread to even the teenage thrill-seeking thieves. Therefore, I’d conjecture that they are LESS effective than they once were at preventing break-ins and stereo thefts. Of course, alarms still do great at preventing LOSS OF THE VEHICLE if you don’t have an expensive or rare car.