Its obvious that the deal was souring due to how restrictive it was for Canadian businesses. However the inject of 11th hour poison pills were most likely a negotiating tactic that Carney’s team were expecting.
Trump’s strategy.
- Create a time crunch by dictating a wild 50% tariff and a artificial deadline (one month).
- Announce an early success to the agreement, to cement Canadian investment in finishing the deal
- Add last minute wild demands (veto power over third country trade deals, and French language carve outs) to offend the Canadians.
- Offer less extreme alternative demands once the extreme demands have moved the overton window.
Carney simply sidestepped step 4, and used the bait-n-switch of the step 3 as a rallying cry for why he walked away. “Trump’s team is not serious. They do not speak with one voice. They made unacceptable demands on our sovereignty. etc.”
I think the Carney’s team was expecting a last-minute bait and switch. Once Trump announced that a 3 day extension was given THEN an early press round cheering that a deal was made,… Carney was sharp in saying that “its not done yet”. He was not going to invest in ANY deal unless it was REALLY TRULY all on paper and signed.
Canadians are 76% in lockstep with Carney. Across the board support, coast-to-coast-to-coast. Carny planted his flag on a solid issue. Sovereignty. Its not economics which allows for folding. What will people do to remain sovereign from an offensive foreign orange fascist? The Ukrainians are bleeding. They have been for YEARS. Are Canadians willing to undergo relatively limited economic hardship? The polls say YES.