Yeah, pretty much. Trump is falling in Iowa right now because he’s not playing “Iowa nice”. They may like their rabid right wingers, but they have to be genteel rabid right wingers. It does give you some credibility if you do better than expected and it can wipe you out if you try and fail to do well. I think the skip it strategy isn’t terribly wise, just ask President Giuliani.
“Winning” a state is a relative term, since three of the four early states have proportional delegate awards. The only state that seems to really matter is South Carolina, which is the largest of the February 4, and is Winner Take All, although about half of its delegates are awarded based on congressional district votes.
The big early one might be Florida on 3/15; it has 99 delegates (Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada combined have 83), and it’s a “none of this district nonsense; whoever wins the statewide vote gets all of the delegates, including the three normally reserved for party bigwigs” state.
No.
But you hear what you want, or need, to hear.
Hahahaha. According to whom? You? According to what Trump actually said, it doesn’t appear that Trump attacked Carson’s religion. But you’re free to spin any comment any way you wish. Getting others to accept your authoritarian proclamations will be the tough part.
The Ides of March in general might be interesting. A couple weeks back Ohio finalized their rules - winner take all for their 66 delegates. That’s over 13% of the delegate total needed to win the nomination being awarded winner take all in states with candidates who’ve won statewide office. They’ll be some high stakes decisions for both the Trump and Carson campaigns related to the 15th.
When you preface your comments with the equivalent of “ignore everything I say here,” (LSM) you can’t complain that no one takes you seriously. The substance of any point you were attempting to make is completely lost. I didn’t even know you were discussing Trump.
This is why I think this was a big misstep for the Trump campaign. Carson’s been running a religious campaign and Trump’s been running a secular campaign. So a lot of religious conservatives - the people who believe there’s a war against Christianity - aren’t going to concern themselves over what Carson’s denomination is. They’re going to see this as Carson being attacked because of his Christianity. And Trump’s going to be cast as the anti-Christian secular humanist. Trump’s actual religious affiliation won’t matter any more than Barack Obama’s does.
Trump only said he was a Presbyterian and did NOT know anything about Seventh Day Adventist…I do NOT call that calling anyone’s religion into question??
That would be true but Trump is not calling his religion into question or saying anything negative about his religion. Trump was told he was not religious “enough” for Evangelical’s and he was basically saying his religion was middle of the road and did not know about Carson’s. I tend to somewhat agree with you… Trump should NOT take the bait on this! We do NOT want a President because he is of a certain religion, MOST want someone who is a Christian but the degree of Christianity matters LESS than the fact that they will be the President to ALL people of ALL religions and to have some staunch strict religious belief would NOT work. Trump should roll right past Iowa, give it his best and move on! He cannot and should not turn himself into Billy Graham to be President. Several Presidents DID NOT win Iowa.
'Hedonistic casino owner" You are kidding right? Anyone HEDONISTIC would NEVER run for President with a 250K salary and literally a world full of headaches!! Trump is a billionaire and lives like a KING and has no intention of accepting a salary. I guess for people who have a one track mind…there is no believing that someone can have everything and DECIDE they love the country they live in, watching it going to RUIN decide with all their experience they could BRING back the USA that we all wish we had!! Or at the very least make it better. Maybe you don’t? Maybe YOU think the USA today is great? I have lived in this country for 62 years and I feel sorry for young people today… because I grew up with NONE of the worries that kids have today… NONE! There is a LAW or a citation for everything! Kids are like specimens under a microscope. Personally I could care less about Donald Trump’s personality…but the most important things to me are IMMIGRATION, JOBS, and SECURITY. There is not one single candidate BUT Trump that will do anything about Illegal immigration, and they are all career politicians who have done NOTHING but tell lies and live off of the taxpayers. That will not change. Ben Carson while an outsider has never said the same thing twice? Every time I listen to him he changes his beliefs. And I have listened to all of them OVER AND OVER. He also sat on boards of companies and NEVER ran one…he is all ready being controlled by his political Pac’s and it will get three times worse when the DONORS call in those favors. WE have that now. I give none of them a free pass, but so far I can see someone who’s proven success in business is the one that needs to run the biggest business yet… the country. I respect your opinions and hope that you respect mine.
No, Trump has a church where they worship him. 
In the last ten elections, The GOP Iowa caucuses have only been really wrong twice, and correct seven times.
You can’t stump the Trump!!! Right Cheryl???!!!
Well, ok. So, why do you think he said it? Why’d he even bring up Presbytarianism and Seventh Day Adventism at all?
OK, but they were wrong in 2012 and wrong in 2008. In 2004 there was an incumbent Republican. In 2000 and 1996, Bush and Dole (respectively) had a huge lead in endorsements going in to the Iowa caucuses.
So there’s not really any evidence from the last 20 years that suggests Iowa can pick the eventual nominee in a close race. There’s also not much evidence that they can’t - Presidential elections just don’t come around very often.
Well, obviously The Donald just wanted to highlight the fact that he simply “didn’t know” about Seventh Day Adventism, and was hoping someone would enlighten him, so he could understand whether it was a nice normal religion like his own or maybe (he doesn’t know) something completely dangerously insane. Just like he “didn’t know” whether Obama was born in the USA and was merely pursuing the time-honored tradition of “just asking questions”.
The Donald asks a lot of questions like that. He “didn’t know” what particular body part Megyn Kelly had blood coming out of when she asked him some questions he didn’t like, so he needed to ask about that, too. I believe the same parties that are defending The Donald now were defending him then, because the man certainly means no harm. The Donald honestly “doesn’t know” whether women are “fat pigs, dogs, slobs, and disgusting animals”, so that question needs to be asked, too. Come on. It’s not like The Donald has ever insulted anyone. The man just doesn’t know things, and he is anxious to learn.
Actually according to you or according to me does not matter … what will matter is how that is heard according to Iowa fundamentalists and how they respond to what they heard.
I am not a Christian fundamentalist/Evangelical so my thoughts are of only so much value … but my WAG is that they will hear a man expressing membership in a denomination that they understand rejects most tenets near and dear to the hearts of most of them (rejection of Biblical inerrancy and rejection of a potentially imminent literal Second Coming), who could not name one Bible verse that meant something to him, implying that fundamentalist/evangelical beliefs are not middle of the road, and that they will respond with stronger rejection of him.
Most Evangelical leaders believe in Rapture, in an imminent Second Coming, in Biblical inerrancy, and see secularism as a bigger threat than even Islam.
Evangelicals were half of all GOP primary voters in 2012. Not everywhere as solidly so as Iowa caucus goers mind you …
Trump has, IMHO, now solidified the Evangelical operation against him; for a GOP primary contender that is the bigger enemy than the Club for Growth taking aim at you. New Hampshire has relatively fewer Evangelicals than most GOP primary states so he might still poll well there for a while, but otherwise expect to see his polling drop off more rapidly from here. Carson will be this cycle’s Santorum with the difference that Bush is no Romney so the shaking out may take longer … Rubio? Cruz? Or Bush finally getting voter support? Don’t know.
AAUI, Seventh Day Adventists are biblical literalists. They go to church on Saturday, the seventh day (on which Og rested). Presumably, that also makes them YECs, which is nonsensical in this day and age. Impractical, even.
So, if Carson ends up in a one-on-one situation, perhaps he will throw rocks and bricks at Trump.
As mentioned on another thread, there are a lot of reasons to worry then:
That BTW was reported by the then French president as one of the points Dubya used with the French president to try to convince him that France should join the “coalition of the willing”. The then French president Chirac was flabbergasted at the ignorance. Chirac said no to Bush.
And now we are considering to have even worse biblical end of time candidates (Carson) and hot headed ones (Trump) that could get a hold of the biggest military in history?
Heck no.
Well, I’m a really nice guy, and also very intelligent. doorhinge, I don’t know about.