We have a Ben Carson thread but it’s not really the Ben Carson for President thread. I figured that with him now tied with Trump in Iowa and starting to look very strong that he probably now deserves a thread talking about his chances, and whatever weird things he’s saying or smart things he’s saying.
It does seem to me that he’s a much, much better candidates than he was last spring, although still not ready for prime time. But given how long a campaign is, he just might be smart enough to get over that learning curve by November. I believe he can win now based on five factors:
Republican voters, really all voters, desperately want an outsider.
Trump has more name recognition and support, but I still don’t think he’s all that serious and too many Republicans disapprove of him for him to get a majority of delegates.
Carson is now the most highly thought of candidate among Republicans, with an 81% approval rating.
His approval rating among the general electorate is the most positive, although there are still a lot of people who don’t know him yet. But he’s at +9, better than any other candidate in either party.
- Biography. No candidate has a more compelling story.
The downsides of course are obvious. His tax plan is even more nonsensical than Herman Cain’s. He still likes to think aloud about things he doesn’t yet know much about(drone strikes on drug smugglers, homosexuality in prison). And he has yet to stand before a liberal or mainstream media outlet. He’s limited himself to Fox. However, he has been willing to talk to the people, so that’s good. But until he can survive Katie Couric he’ll never make it. He’s got a long way to go, but he has the potential to get there.