I think a Carson surge at this time is a bit of buyer’s remorse over Trump. I think Trump has peaked and Republicans are sobering up. Now are we going to see all the unTrumps come out of the clown car one by one just like all the unRomneys did in 2012? I don’t know. Maybe Trump himself is merely the first unBush to come out of the clown car.
I don’t give Carson a chance. Let’s face it, after 8 years of Republicans foaming at the mouth saying (under their breath) “Holy shit! There’s a black guy in the White House!” they aren’t about to nominate a black guy. You aren’t talking about a rational electorate on the R side. 54% of Republicans think Obama is Muslim, while 32% aren’t sure. 29% of them thought Obama was born in the US while 40% of them said Cruz (who wasn’t) was. Not your basic rocket scientists here. Now if you think this group of geniuses and unbigoted voters is going to nominate Carson, well maybe I can put you down for part ownership in the Brooklyn Bridge.
Sanders is an outsider in the sense of having unconventional views and self-identification. Carson is an outsider in the sense of being completely inexperienced and clueless about what he’s doing. There’s a world of difference between the two, and nobody wants someone who’s inexperienced.
I don’t know if Bush is the Romney of this cycle, but I think you’re right about the Carson surge. The Carson surge will take eyes off Trump. Trump is where he is because of media attention. Without media attention, Trump can’t win. So the rise of Carson might start the boom-bust cycle we saw in 2012 with the unRomneys.
Two caveats: Trump can always just do something outrageous and reclaim the spotlight. And I didn’t think he’d last this long, so I’m obviously just making shit up at this point.
This makes for a nice explanation but doesn’t seem to match the facts on the ground, in that Trump doesn’t seem to be losing support as Carson gains it. It seems more to be people who want to jump on the outsider band wagon but can’t stomach Trump.
In terms of Carson’s prospects, I see a lot of similarity with Herman Cain. Both are complete outsiders with no political or policy experience who find themselves in the temporary lime light, and have that “Look we’ve got a black guy too” that assumes that to putting up a black candidate is all that is needed to win the black vote. But I doubt he’ll last once people get to know him. Of course I thought the same thing about Trump so what do I know.
Carson knows ONE subject matter and is willfully ignorant of all others. Tyson’s knowledge is much more broad-based. Carson isn’t fit to carry Tyson’s books.
I’d love to see evidence of Tyson knowing much beyond his field. And Carson is learning. That’s part of why he’s rising in the polls.
But still, he’s not Herman Cain. Herman Cain is a guy that GOPers actively recruited because a black face for a Georgia race would be awesome. Carson is in politics totally on his own initiative. Plus again, he’s a LOT more accomplished than Cain. Did Cain have a Medal of Freedom?
I know, right? That’s why we have you to unskew polls for us. Damn that data.
Sanders isn’t an outsider, isn’t winning, and is largely drawing support based on policy prescriptions. Other than that, it’s just like what we’re seeing on the GOP side.
Huh, so you’re really going to try to push this Fiorina thing? She’s a failed executive who significantly damaged both the company she ran and its employees. She also ran a failed Senate race. Her entire platform is “Hillary bad.” She’s not a contender.
I took contender to mean something like “has a greater than 0.1% chance of winning the nomination,” which I don’t think is supportable based on current polling.
If it just means, “she will continue to draw some attention at least through the caucuses”, then I agree that is possible.
A sitting Senator for a few years. Unlike governors and mayors, Senators can actually do pretty much nothing at all other than cast votes and get away with it. Paul’s done a lot of good in the Senate, most notably on NSA spying, but I don’t know that he’s gained any more insight into government than he had before he was a Senator.
I’ll concede that Paul is more qualified, but not a heck of a lot more. I’ll also concede that of course no one has ever gone from being an entertainer, or a doctor, straight to the Presidency. Carson will only win if the voters are determined to vote in an outsider because of disgust with the system.
My preference is still John Kasich and I’m beginning to think that he’ll probably be the last man standing. But if the voters are rejecting experienced politicians, anything can happen. Even Donald Trump.