538 has an interesting data visualization up, showing where the various candidates have the most Facebook likes. Nationally, Ben Carson is in the lead. I guess every Adventist in America has liked his page.
Obviously, he’s not going to win the nomination that way, but it’s an insight into why he hasn’t dropped out of the race yet. He still has his very passionate supporters, and he probably hears lots of positive things from them.
Earlier in the race, Carson and Trump were seen as similar candidates: outsiders with intense “tribal” support. And that is still true, but the tribe that’s backing Trump — the white working class, basically — happens to be enormous.
538 said Rick Santorum had the same chance of winning the primaries as Donald Trump, and consistently ignored Trump’s 30% national polling until last month. I should know, because I check it out many times a week. 538 will disappear just like Grantland next year. And good riddance, Nate Silver has been a Hillary boi for years. I’ve followed him when he started with baseball, and was not impressed. Bill James he is not.
You may have checked the page, but it seems you didn’t read the articles.
The editors believe that national poll numbers months out from the primaries were not especially predictive. Because they aren’t. And they weren’t even in this case, with Trump having lost Iowa to Cruz, something quite contrary to the national polls.
Calling Silver a “Hillary boi” is bizarre. If anything, he was biased toward Obama in 2008 (and IIRC openly for him).