I’m assuming Trump’s election means Ukraine is fucked. But what are the chances it emboldens China to invade Taiwan? How is America likely to respond in that scenario, and is there any chance Taiwan can defend itself without US help?
I’m assuming Trump’s election means Ukraine is fucked. But what are the chances it emboldens China to invade Taiwan? How is America likely to respond in that scenario, and is there any chance Taiwan can defend itself without US help?
Zero chance.
The likelihood is fairly high. Even before Trump was reelected, there had long been this theory that China would try to invade by 2027 because Xi Jinping’s term ends in that year and he wants to be the guy to get that achievement in his name; the feather to his cap. (Although that theory doesn’t seem to have all that much substance to it.) And although Trump has mocked ‘Kung Flu’ and hasn’t been as chummy with Xi as he has been with Putin, he still admires dictators and isn’t likely to intervene in a war.
Without the USA helping Taiwan, China would likely resort to blockade rather than invasion. It would be much less costly for China, inflict much less damage on Taiwan (the goal is to capture a target as intact as possible anyway,) etc. Having America out of the equation lets China do it slow. And a blockade looks less bad in international PR terms than an invasion.
The likelihood of US intervention was why China had to focus so much training on a blitzkrieg 100-hour assault on Taiwan, trying to capture the island as a fait accompli before America could intervene. But if China knew Trump would stay out, then there’s no need to lose 500,000 PLA lives (that was the estimated cited in one Newsweek article in 2005) and also deal with a much more embittered island populace.
The very geography of an island makes it resistant to invasion but vulnerable to blockade. The British Isles haven’t been successfully invaded since the Duke of Normandy in 1066 AD, tiny Pacific dots like Iwo Jima and Okinawa cost a terrible price in WWII, and modern technology favors the defender much more than the attacker in D-Day type landing scenarios. But with a blockade, China could easily choke off Taiwan (which is all-but-100%-dependent on foreign oil imports for fossil fuels and 70% dependent on foreign imports for food.)
Mainland China can take over Taiwan anytime it chooses, whether the US tries to help Taiwan or not. Whether Trump would lift a finger to help Taiwan is another question. There is currently no active defense treaty between Taiwan and the US, so Trump can simply sit back and watch.
Executing an amphibious invasion across 100 miles of water would be highly difficult for an invading force if there is strong allied (US) air/sea interdiction. That sort of D-Day operation is challenging to pull off even facing relatively weak resistance. If hundreds/thousands of antiship missiles and dozens of torpedoes are coming in to muck things up, it becomes far dicier.
The Chinese legislature abolished presidential term limits in 2018. Xi has been making noises for the last couple of years about a 2027 invasion. I would opine that this would be such a stupidly self-destructive, economically devastating move because even if the Chinese make a successful beachhead and occupy Taiwan, the Taiwanese will burn TSMC and all other strategic and economic assets to the ground rather than hand them over the PRC, but ever since Putin made the decision to repeatedly shoot himself in the foot by invading Ukraine I no longer have any faith in leaders—especially those like Putin and Xi who have eliminated anyone their circle of advisors who will tell them anything they don’t want to hear—will make decisions grounded in interest of their nation’s economic and long term
security.
There is no question; Trump will do nothing because there is no benefit to him personally, even if the result is that the US loses access to the manufacturer of the majority of the world’s high performance microprocessors. He certainly isn’t going to engage in an active naval conflict halfway around the world that the US Navy is currently ill-constituted to engage in just because its “the right thing to do”, and even if there were a security assurance treaty he would ignore it because the President can absolutely do that. The AI tech magnates depending on NVIDIA are going to be none too happy about that when they can’t buy video cards to power bigger computing clusters, but you get the horse you bet on, brah.
Stranger
All China would have to do is set up a blockade and make sure no planes or ships can get in or out. Also they would remind the good people of Taiwan that tactical nukes are ready to be deployed if needed. The US isn’t going to risk starting a nuclear war just to save Taiwan from the inevitable.
Just read up on Project 2025, it lays out the plan of prioritizing China as the enemy of the United States and the defense of Taiwan as key to establishing and maintaining American domance in the region militarily. They see control of the China Sea as one of the biggest threats to our economy. I expect to see our bases to return to the Philippines under Trump.
Yes, he going to screw Ukraine badly, but the logic there is that Europe needs to provide the support there since it directly impact them.
While I am not happy to see what is going to happen to Ukraine, I understand the reasoning. China is the bigger threat militarily and economically. It’s one of the few points I can accept in Project 2025, even if I don’t like the majority of it.
So that said, I don’t seeing China invading Taiwan and playing into Trumps hand.
Notwithstanding what it says in the Project 2025 document, I don’t think Trump likes foreign entanglements and I highly doubt he will return bases in the Philippines, especially because I don’t think they would be keen on it.
Trump spent two years on the campaign trail boasting that he was the only President not to go to war. He will need to be dragged kicking and screaming to send troops to help Taiwan.
The Project 2025 people will soon find that their plans are for everyone else but him.
The Phillipines are increasingly becoming more open to US presence in the China Sea due to the bullying by the Chinese navy. And reopening up bases doesn’t mean a war, just the opposite. It would prevent one.
Trump needs a bogeyman to play against, and China is the one he hates (along with Iran). It’s still necessary for him to have an enemy to rail against while he is taking rights away at home. Economicly, Trump is already at war with China through tariffs and his words.
I figure China has had a long term strategy.
They would develop their anti-ship missile systems so the United States Navy would be reduced as a credible threat. They would then make a move for legal recognition of the claims on the Paracel Islands, where the stakes are low and they already have de facto control. China would vaguely threaten military action and then agree to a diplomatic solution such as the issue being referred to a UN committee, where they would have pre-rigged the outcome.
The next step would be to push for the Spratley Islands, where the stakes are a little higher (there’s offshore oil involved) and their claim is more ambiguous.
Only after they had some momentum of getting the international diplomatic community to back down, would they make a play for Taiwan.
That said, China might see an unanticipated opportunity in the next four years if they feel American leadership is distracted.
Maybe. But maybe somebody will tell Trump that winning a war (and we all know Trump will believe he’s a military genius and would only experience success) will cement his position as greatest president ever.
I’ll have the best war, maybe the greatest war ever. People tell me it’s the best war. So many casualties.
The simple fact that Trump is so unstable, irrational and inconsistent may well convince them to not try anything. They don’t want Taiwan bad enough to eat a nuclear war because they poked a lunatic the wrong way.
Oh, gods, not the “Madman Theory” of international relations again. How well did that work out for Nixon?
Stranger
I didn’t say it was desirable or reliable (I recall reading how Reagan’s election made the Politburo of the USSR consider a nuclear first strike because they considered him a lunatic, which is the other half of the “Madman Theory”). I’m just saying that if everyone is lucky it might work out that way this time. If.
I agree with Stranger, Trump won’t intervene because he doesn’t personally benefit from it.
Do you think the populace that elected him wants to send our boys/girls over there to fight for some island that most Americans can’t find on a map? No way.
He’d just have FOX et.al spin any chip shortage and economic collapse; as something that is the Democrats and Biden’s fault…