chances of north korea starting a war this year?

This is simply wrong. The desire for unification amongst younger Koreans is strong. They see one Korea. Cost Is immaterial.

Even if the ancient artillery the North has along the DMZ by, some miracle, is still operational, I’m reasonably certain that the Games (Foal Eagle) with the US and ROK forces have worked out exactly how to neutralize it.

The ROK (South) is so terribly afraid of these guns that Seoul has grown right up to the edge of the DMZ

Kim Jong Un was the thrid son of his father. Never expected to be ruler.
Then No.1 son caught trying to enter Disney Japan on a forged passport.
No.2, as near as I can tell, was regarded as “too feminine”, as the term was used.
Which left them with Idiot Son who needed to be groomed real fast.

Daddy left the Uncle as a guiding influence. Jong Un decided he didn’t want the Uncle.

The Uncle was the only remaining link between the PRC rulers and DPRK rulers.

You wouldn’t happen to have anything resembling a cite for your assertion that “the entire Korean peninsual is rightly to be governed by the Government [in] Seoul”, would you? I ask because AFAIK that’s not the US position at all.

Do you have some solid polling on those?

What SK political party has a two Korea policy in its platform? Do you not understand that there are thousands of separated families? This is just a silly debate.

So that’s a “no,” then?

I ask because the link I posted above suggests that young Koreans are feeling increasingly distant, ideologically and culturally, from the DPRK. I’ll grant that “The desire for unification amongst younger Koreans is strong”–per that source, 70% of Koreans in their 20s say they support reunification.

But you also asserted that “they see one Korea,” and that “cost [of reunification] is immaterial.” I was really hoping you could point me toward polling that supports those claims. It’s a fascinating topic, and I’d like to know more about how young Koreans feel.

On purpose? I’d say that the chances of that are pretty minimal…less than 1%. Doing it on accident while trying to do their usual posturing horseshit? I’d have to give that a 30-40% chance that they try another shelling or sinking of a SK naval vessel and completely misread the situation and response and start a war.

Yep…that’s the fear. Kim is not as in control as either his father or grandfather were, and the military elite as well as Kim et al don’t seem all that connected to reality. They might THINK they can just get some propaganda on the home front by sinking some SK warship or doing something along those lines, but it’s unclear that the SK government is prepared to put up with any more of that horseshit from the NKs. Any such attempt might just bring the peninsula to the brink of war.

An outbreak of war at this point would definitely help the Dems, at least IMHO…just the thought of any of the current Pubs, with the possible exception of Kasich in charge during a potential shooting war between SK and NK with us in the middle chills my blood. Can you imagine Trump or Cruz large and in charge during such an event?? :eek:!!

“Thousands of separated families?” The war ended over 60 years ago with the signing of the Korean Armistice Agreement in 1953.

Before long, there will not be anyone left alive who remembers any family members from before the war.

For me, the situation is somewhat like my great-aunt who moved from the midwest (along with her husband) to raise a family in Hawaii in the 1950s. That branch of the family may as well have dropped off the face of the earth, because I have never met any of them. You could say that our families were separated, but I certainly don’t miss them because I’ve never met any of them.

Even without a geographical separation, families naturally lose contact with each other after a few generations. I know all of my first cousins and a handful of second cousins, but not much beyond that.

Do any of the major parties have reunification in their platforms? I’m honestly asking here.

AFAICT it is sort of taken for granted. The dispute is how to bring it about, and when. SK has more or less ruled out doing with military force. Even NK says they want to re-unify, although no one doubts their idea of the end goal is radically different from that of SK (and any sane person).

The South Korean position is mostly ‘yes we would like to re-unite, but Kim is out of his tiny little mind so it may be difficult’. The North Korean position is ‘denounce the capitalist imperialist running dogs of the US and let us unite under the beneficient rule of the glorious People’s Revolutionary Leader’ etc. etc.

Regards,
Shodan

We are strongly limited by our (or perhaps my) inability to read Korean. My evidence is largely anecdotal. I live in LA and there are close to a million Koreans living here. I have yet to meet a single one who isn’t pro unification. Again, anecdotal, I know.

You understand that families aren’t allowed to unify or even speak unless they sneak out of the north, right?

I’m not an expert on Korean politics and am on my phone so I can’t find links but I agree with Shodan.

Yes. But after 63 years, how many estranged family members do you think are still alive today? (And by “estranged family members,” I mean people who actually knew each other before the war, not distant cousins who have never met.)

Before you respond that these distant cousins have never met solely because they were forcibly separated, I submit to you that most people, even without a forced separation, don’t personally know their distant cousins. They may as well be strangers, like the fourth cousin I discovered while doing some genealogy research years ago.

So basically, the South Koreans are in favor of unification, but not in favor of doing anything about it?

I’m sure they’d be in favor of doing any number of things. Further negotiations to improve relations are always welcomed by the South.

There just isn’t anything productive that can be done right now. The North is simply too damned crazy.

A google of “ROK reunification” produces the ROK Ministry of (re)unification as the 6th hit.
Both sides have Minitries of/for Unification.

If we take the German model is the baseline, then there is going to be a significant cost to be born. One can understand that they’d be willing to pay for it, but not go to war to allow it.

ROK keeps hoping that one of two things happen:

  1. Somebody named Kim will come to power and quietly make a deal. There was some early signs that this one might have turned out sane after all.
  2. The North Koreans and/or China will brush aside the Kim empire and make a deal whereby the 23 million starving Koreans stay on their side of the river, and the US pulls its troops out of the South.

Under either scenario, the deal will be announced well after it is sealed.

Right, that’s what I mean. They’ll deal with unification if it happens, but they won’t take any steps to initiate it.