chances of north korea starting a war this year?

[John_Mace]

@Alessan

Right, that’s what I mean. They’ll deal with unification if it happens, but they won’t take any steps to initiate it.

I’d say that they recognize forcing it would not be worth it. Sometimes wars can be bad.

[Alessan]

@John_Mace

I’d say that they recognize forcing it would not be worth it. Sometimes wars can be bad.

But are any politicians saying that they’d take some other proactive measure - not necessarily war - to unify the peninsula? Or are they just in favor of unification in principle? Because saying you’re in favor of something “in principle” doesn’t actually mean anything.

[Shodan]

@Alessan

But are any politicians saying that they’d take some other proactive measure - not necessarily war - to unify the peninsula? Or are they just in favor of unification in principle? Because saying you’re in favor of something “in principle” doesn’t actually mean anything.

North Korea and South Korea signed a treaty in 2000agreeing that they wanted to re-unify, in principle. The two governments also said much the same thing in 1972, including steps they would both take towards re-unification. The difficulty with the process comes mostly from the fact, as mentioned, that the NK government leaders are what they are and do what they do.

But yes, SK politicians are doing various things in preparation for re-unification.

On January 1, 2011, a group of twelve lawmakers from the ruling and opposition parties introduced a bill into the South Korean National Assembly to allow for the establishment of a “unification tax”. The bill called for businesses to pay 0.5 percent of corporate tax, individuals to pay 5 percent of inheritance or gift taxes, and both individuals and companies to pay two percent of their income tax towards the cost of unification. The bill initiated legislative debate on practical measures to prepare for unification, as proposed by President Lee Myung-bak in his Liberation Day speech the previous year. The proposal for a unification tax was not warmly welcomed at the time. Lee has since reiterated concerns regarding the imminence of unification, which, combined with North Korean behavior, led to the tax proposal gaining wider acceptance. Practical measures to prepare for unification are becoming an increasingly frequent aspect of political debate, as concern regarding imminent and abrupt unification increases.

IIRC you are Israeli. As such, I expect you recognize the difficulties involved in negotiating with people who want to kill and/or conquer you and take over your country for their own purposes. IYSWIM.

Regards,
Shodan

[John_Mace]

@Alessan

But are any politicians saying that they’d take some other proactive measure - not necessarily war - to unify the peninsula? Or are they just in favor of unification in principle? Because saying you’re in favor of something “in principle” doesn’t actually mean anything.

I don’t know that any such measures are possible given the leadership of NK. Maybe I’m reading too much into your posts, but you seem to be poo-hooing their desire for re-unification because they aren’t doing anything about it, but in my mind, there just isn’t anything they CAN do. And I can imagine that lots of things they might attempt to do could make things worse.

[spifflog]

I tend to agree with Alessan here. It’s one thing to want to something if asked in a poll with no cost or consequences.
Q: Do you support universal health care?

A: Sure

Q: Do you support universal health care for $25,000 are year per individual?

A: Ahhh, not so much.
So I’m not sure if unification is a passionate issue to South Koreans, or just a sure, why not? It’s hard to know what the price the average Korean is will to pay. I agree with many. At some point, it’s just the way it is. And being separated from a second cousin that I wouldn’t know from a hole in the ground doesn’t see all that motivating.

[madsircool]

@spifflog

I tend to agree with Alessan here. It’s one thing to want to something if asked in a poll with no cost or consequences.
Q: Do you support universal health care?

A: Sure

Q: Do you support universal health care for $25,000 are year per individual?

A: Ahhh, not so much.
So I’m not sure if unification is a passionate issue to South Koreans, or just a sure, why not? It’s hard to know what the price the average Korean is will to pay. I agree with many. At some point, it’s just the way it is. And being separated from a second cousin that I wouldn’t know from a hole in the ground doesn’t see all that motivating.

You also don’t understand the history of Korea and the importance of family. They aren’t white middle class Americans. They have their own priorities. They also have a centuries old history as a unified country.

[spifflog]

@madsircool

You also don’t understand the history of Korea and the importance of family. They aren’t white middle class Americans. They have their own priorities. They also have a centuries old history as a unified country.

Thanks for being so cock sure about my lack of historical knowledge and understanding of Asian culture. And while it’s true that I don’t live near a million Koreans, with all the intellectual advantages that gives you, I am well traveled and well read.

I’ll maintain that while they’d like to have unification, it’s difficult to know the “what are you prepared to do” aspect of it. There will be a significant cost in both blood and treasure for unification and I’d guess over time the South Koreans will be less eager to pay that.

Let’s hope we don’t have an answer to the blood portion of that equation any time soon.

[Magiver]

@coremelt

China has little or no influence over North Korea anymore. Kim did a purge and executed all the pro china members of his inner clique a while back, including the widely reported uncle that was executed by an anti-aircraft gun. The north won’t wait for China’s approval to do an attack if they are weeks away from collapsing due to the effects of the Sanctions.

For everyone saying they just bluster and never deliver, they’ve never had sanctions on them like this supported by both China and Russia before. This is a unique situation.

When you think everybody is out to get you you’re bound to be right at least once. Dear liter is a quart low on sanity and someone will eventually cash him out.

[Clark_Cello]

@The_Stainless_Steel_Rat

Chances?

• For N. Korea launching some type of Military incursion into S. Korea? About 5% chance, same as since 1954. Something smaller (i.e., sabotage/terrorist type) I’ll give a 10% chance to.

If I am remembering how to do probabilities correctly (and there is certainly a chance I am not), if there were a 5% chance of them launching a military incursion every year since 1954, there would be a 96% chance that one would have happened by now, so either that number is a bit too high, or we have been lucky.

(I also admit that I may just be being pedantic here, and your 5% may just mean “a very small, but non-zero number.”)

[The_Stainless_Steel_Rat]

@Clark_Cello

If I am remembering how to do probabilities correctly (and there is certainly a chance I am not), if there were a 5% chance of them launching a military incursion every year since 1954, there would be a 96% chance that one would have happened by now, so either that number is a bit too high, or we have been lucky.

(I also admit that I may just be being pedantic here, and your 5% may just mean “a very small, but non-zero number.”)

Yes, you are being pedantic here…:p;)

Truthfully, I never took a stats course, but I accept your figures as being correct. What I was trying to get across was while we can’t eliminate a chance of it happening, it hasn’t happened to date since 1954 (0% for 1954-2015) and while each year we can evaluate and estimate that there is a small chance, it remains unlikely. IMHO as always.

And since I’m here…

China. I don’t think their influence is quite as muted as coremelt seems to think…they are the only real support on the world state the N. Koreans can depend on, and China has it’s own interests in not having a unified Korea on it’s borders, which makes them players even if they find the People’s Republic a pain to deal with.

That said, I think China could be brought into a…call it a coalition if you will…if the N. Koreans ever launched a major attack on the South, or launched nukes at any of it’s neighbors (including Japan), well, N. Korea is going to go away. The difference between now and the 1950’s is that China is more settled, less paranoid, and tied much closer to the world economy and in direct communication with those it would have considered it’s “ideological” enemies in the 1950’s.

Note, this only applies if the DPRK is foolish enough to go full-bore crazy and attack. Our attacking them first will be quite a different pot of kimchee…

as always, IMHO. YMMV.

[watchwolf49]

Huh?

I’m going with 0% any war will be starting on the Korean peninsula.

It’s a subtle point, I agree, but technically there is only a cease fire in place … no peace treaty … therefore a state of war exists between the North and South and has been all these decades. So we start with the extremely unlikely case where the North and South finally sit down, talk things out and come to a peace agreement by the end of the year. That won’t leave either side enough time to violate the peace agreement and return to a state of war.

The cease fire is violated around every 5 or 10 years, so that would give us a 10% to 20% chance in this year. Anything more than a short little incursion or incident would depend on how many bullets the North has, and that ain’t many.

There is no chance the current war ends and a new one started this year.

[Bruce_Wayne]

Do people of South Korea want to be unified with North Korea?

I don’t know how reliable this link above is, but it says two thirds of South Koreans support reinification even though they know there will be negative economic consequences. I too have always assumed a unified Korea under a more South Korean style government was always the logical endgame.