I am too timid to put this in GD, but move it there if you must.
I watch Tony Blair’s war mongering and think to myself “this guy’s chances of winning the next election are slim to none”
I see Iain Duncan Smith talking on TV and think “this guy’s chances of winning the next election are slim to none”
Then just a few minutes ago I connected these two in my brain and thought “wait, if Blair has no chance, and Smith has no chance, does this mean Charles Kennedy has a chance of becoming the next PM?”
I know this is unlikely, but worth a moment’s thought at least.
Are the conservatives sooo pathetic, that Blair can become a hated puppet and war mongerer and still be likely to win the next election??
Thoughts…
My view: If the war is quick and with low UK/US casualties, Blair will survive - everyone likes a winner. If the war is messy, Blair will be replaced and the next Labor leader (Brown?) will be the next Prime Minister.
I can’t see a minor party suddenly winning an extra 300+ seats just because the electorate doesn’t like the leadership of the two main parties.
I think he’d be a great choice (if the rumours about his drinking habits prove unfounded - mind you, Churchill liked a bottle of champers for breakfast, and he didn’t do too badly). The chances of a sea-change in their favour would be better, but still a little far-fetched.
There’s no way the Tories can get back into power with IDS. Portillo would seem like a good choice to resurrect their fortunes, but he’d have to sort a few things out first, and I don’t think the grass-roots would elect him. Clarke’s too old and bogged down in the tobacco thing, so I don’t think they’ll be a viable opposition too soon.
As amarone says, if the war goes badly, Blair will be destroyed. However, I don’t think that would mess up Labour’s chances under a new leader.
From someone who has always voted Liberal (but may switch to Conservative next time) … no. I’d quite like it to happen though.
Blair is not as unpopular as you think. Not as many people disagree with the war as you think. For what it’s worth, the last poll I saw said that 40% were in favour even without UN approval. It’s possible that only Blair’s diplomacy has kept the peace up until now. I may be giving him more credit than he deserves, but in my view the best way for him to prevent war would, to outside observers, look exactly like it does. And it won’t make him less popular than IDS, because IDS is if anything even more hawkish.
IDS has two problems as I see it. Firstly, the behaviour of his defeated leadership rivals, especially Portillo and Clarke. Secondly the media’s strange disinclination to criticise this government’s failings while savaging the Conservatives over the tiniest internal disagreement. If the Conservatives criticise Labour, they are chided for trying to score ‘cheap political points’. I don’t think IDS can overcome Blair unless Blair really makes a mess of things. Then his policy of keeping quiet so as to annoy the minimum of people might pay off.
The Liberal party’s boast that they are the “real opposition” is pathetic. To be the opposition you have to oppose now and then, but in general they seem more interested in attacking the irrelevant Conservatives. (presumably in order to chase second place).
Kennedy has a very outside chance of being a cabinet minister in a coalition government, but as Labour have an enormous majority even that doesn’t seem likely in the near future.
Sorry to be boring, but I’m convinced the next PM will either be Gordon Brown or whoever is in charge of the Conservatives next time they win. And that isn’t likely to be IDS, because both main parties seem to only give the leader one chance to win an election.
I think it’ll depend on timing. If Blair takes Britain to war without a second UN resolution and it goes badly and leaves Iraq without a better regime, but tries to cling onto power the infighting within the Labour party will destroy it. The unions are seriously pissed off over the war issue and if the infighting that will happen happens close enough to the next election and IDS is still leader of the Conservatives, I predict a large swing to the Liberal Democrats and a hung parliament. If Blair stepped down swiftly after a bad war, I think Brown probably could unite the party again - he’s known to be more of a socialist than Blair but because of his links with Blair won’t alienate too many of the middle-class voters won round at the last election.
I think the Popularity of Labour may well depend upon the size of their next parliamentary rebellion.
The argument is not wether Saddam Hussain should be taken out, so much as should we be going ahead with this without a more positive international consensus.
Blair is increasingly being seen as authoritarian, and if the Labour rebellion is significantly greater than last time, it will only confirm this in the minds of the party activists, and will start a snowball rolling as more waverers join in, it could result in Blairs’ fall from power.
I don’t see how the international split over Iraq is going to help in the G7 and G9 talks, I fear the world may become more divided into trading blocs and this will affect world trade, shares and a big issue here is the effect on pensions funds.
If we go to war, no matter what the result, world powers might well sulk in their corners, the resulting recession might well damage governing political parties around the world.
The British public seem to be largely ignored at the moment by both the mainstream parties and this might well result in a protest vote and possibly extremists from the BNP getting elected, certainly in the upcoming local government elections.
I personally do not hate blair. I like him in fact. I like Charles Kennedy too (I did a political quiz once which put my political ideals very close to those of Kennedy)
I sympathise with him (blair), he has little choice but to go along with that illiterate idiot in the white house. He probably knew his future was doomed - go against America and be doomed, go with America and be doomed. I think blair is a human being with human limits, doing very well to make the best of a hopeless situation.
And I am sure this has been covered in-depth by people with far more political knowledge and understanding than me, so I would like not to be flamed, (but we can’t always have what we ask for)
Note: do not read that as anit-americanism. I like Americans, they are notoriously friendly people. I just have a problem with that stupid man you made president (or maybe you didn’t)