You’re asking us to ask The Master? Why, is Cecil no longer speaking to you? 
I’m pretty sure the tract-level data is out. That’s what was in the Tribune graphic. Bring lunch and we’ll put it up on the GIS.
I would dearly love to get into the census tract data, but all I can find on the U.S. Census website are county and city-level aggregates. Searching for census tract data with their American Fact Finder tool pulls up only 2000 data. The Trib map sure looks like census tracts, though. Am I looking in the wrong place?
I think Chicago is clearly changing but a 200,00 loss isn’t that much. There is a much larger and wealthier upper-middle class then there has ever been. The city is changing for the better in my opinion.
I’ve been in Chicago, and I’d be getting the fuck out, if I was black, white, or green. I don’t see anything unusual, here. If you don’t like it, you can get the fuck out, if you like. If you won’t, then you complain about how sucky it’'s become, no-one cares. People who see themselves as “unable to leave”, won’t leave. People who can, will. People who stay can just suck it up, and stop complaining. Or change things, their choice. I do not see any grounds for your complaint. All I can say is “suck it up”, you wanted to live there, deal with it! Don’t like it? Leave! Or change it, and stop bothering the rest of us. Your choice, make it, or STFU. Don’t bother the rest of us with your issues, because we don’t care.
I’m confused…about exactly the relevance this post has to the thread?
Look in Tinley Park.
Well, and the surrounding areas, of course. I grew up there, and we had two or three black students at Andrew high school the whole time I went there (two of whom were adopted as infants by white families). There really wasn’t a black face in the whole dang neighborhood for most of my childhood. Now it’s as integrated as you could wish for. They must have come from somewhere, and I suspect the increase in black people in Tinley Park, Orland Park, Oak Forest, Crestwood, Worth, et al would correlate nicely with the exodus from Chicago.
The exodus from Chicago, I believe, would likely have been triggered by two things: the tearing down of the public housing and the gentrification of neighborhoods like Logan Square and Wicker Park. Section 8 spread into the burbs at the same time as housing prices went up in formerly black neighborhoods, and people followed the cheaper rents.
Honestly, if there had been that kind of diversity down there in 1998, I probably wouldn’t have come north in the first place.
Sigh… “Hey Cecil! What’s with the 200,000-person drop in the population of Chicago? Is it really mostly African-Americans who are leaving? Is there really a ‘great reverse migration to the South,’ like the Wall Street Journal says?”
I think this is the best explanation that I have read. Was at a conference with Jim Rogers, Soros’ old partner and he w bugging up Chicago and the Midwest saying farm land prices will rise (they have) and that with abundant water and a great transport exchange Chicago is a good long term bet.
Now we’re talking. The boss was confident the Teeming Millions would come through and says to express his thanks.
Anecdotally, I’ve seen the same thing here in Brookfield. When we moved here in '96, the town was very white. In the intervening 15 years, it’s become noticeably more integrated (both by blacks and Hispanics).
Everyone has noticed the 200,000 overall drop in Chicago population and the Black flight from Chicago, but no one has remarked on another startling statistic: the 100% drop in the Chicago DuPage County population. (Yes, the Northeast corner of DuPage County is within the Chicago city limits.)
The 2000 census showed that exactly two people lived in the DuPage portion of Chicago. The 2010 census shows zero people live there (even though the DuPage area grew with the 2010 annexation).
I never figured out where these two people might have lived. St. Johannes cemetery? Lake O’Hare? I also never saw voting statistics broken out that listed the Chicago vote for DuPage County offices or the DuPage vote for mayor of Chicago. (And would the Chicago Board of Elections or the DuPage County BofE have administered the elections?)
Why the black flight and where are they going?
In the other discussion, several of us have hypothesized that they’re going to suburbs. A number of Chicago Housing Authority high-rises have been razed over the past decade, which may be a factor.
Are they largely middle-class blacks now joining their white fellows in the suburbs or are they working-class?
The whites are leaving too. It’s just that they’re being offset by other, younger whites crowding into Loop/North Side high-rises. Look at this Tribune map:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-met-0220-census-follow-gfx.eps-20110218,0,5740685.graphic
Looks an awful lot like white flight on the Southwest Side, doesn’t it?
The Census also attempts to count squatters and homeless people. It is possible that the two people in that little slice in 2000 that were gone in 2010 were either:
-
Stubbornly refusing to move to make way for O’Hare expansion
-
Squatting in a structure since demolished
-
Homeless people camping out there.
The St. Johannes caretaker and his family did, indeed, live in the City of Chicago, DuPage County. The Board of Elections had to prepare special ballots for them. There was a Tribune story a few years back.
That could easily explain it.
Here are some figures on population gains and losses in the municipal core and the suburbs between 2000 and 2010. Chicago lost 200,000 in the city and gained 546,000 in the suburbs.
Here a USC professor opines that urban redevelopment can reduce density. “Gentrification often means that wealthy households rehabilitate mult-family properties into single family homes. This can lead to an increase in wealth in cities, but does not necessary translate into a relative increase in population.”