After the debacle of the 2000 election it seems like all the TV news networks are trying out chickenshit each other on when they’ll be calling results. They used to use exit polls and project state by results pretty early in the evening. This year they’re all saying they won’t call anything until the polls close in each state. This basically tells the audience that there isn’t any reason to watch them until the small hours (it also misses the point that the exit polls were RIGHT last time, that Gore DID win Florida and that the Republicans simply managed to get thousands of Gore votes thrown out by various, nefarious methods but that’s a different rant and I must move on, for God’s sake). So my intent with this thread is to mock and ridicule the tv networks for not having any fucking balls but I also have a real question.
Will there be any reliable source on the “internets” anywhere that it will be possible to follow exit polls and get some earlier projections. It seems to me like this would be a perfect time for some online sites to scoop the boob tube with an early call on the election. Does anyone have any suggestions?
The TV stations are missing a trick here. If somebody calls it early and gets it wrong because of subsequent legal wrangles, nobody will care because they’ll all be focussed on said wrangles. If they call it early and are right, they get great kudos
But more to answer the questions…what we’ll end up doing is what the guysint eh back room have had to do on every election - examine each set of results, ask about the demography, the processes used, etc, and finally extrapolate some data.
Now I think about it, this will be the Day of the Statisticians!!
Exit polls are accurate and they were accurate in 2000. There is no reason to fear them this year and I think what the TV nets are really doing is just posing, trying to project an air of restraint and rigor even though they’ll probably know who the winner is long before the polls close. They’ll be pretending not to know something that they will know. I find that very obnoxious.
Why does it matter what the media personalities say? Last I checked, television reporters weren’t the ones whose counts determined election results.
I personally support their decision to hold off their projections until all the polls in a state close. The early network calls of Florida for Gore discouraged many conservative voters from voting on the panhandle, whose polls closed an hour later than the rest of the state…
At least one network (IIRC it’s NBC) are insulating their analysts from all media sources, in the hope that giving them the figures they crave and nothing else might help them do a good job.
This is something I’ve never heard before. Have you any evidence that the panhandle could have made a serious difference?
Check out about halfway down the article. I make no claims for the accuracy of the impression, but seems to me to be as legitimate as still complaining about how the eeevil Republicans threw out thousands of Gore votes on no grounds but the state’s election laws.
It was brought up lots of times immediately after the election. The Florida panhandle is pretty Republican and it’s an hour behind the rest of Florida. The networks called Florida for Gore before the polls had closed in the panhandle, and I believe that turnout depressed after that. In a state that was decided by only a pretty small number of votes, I think it’s quite possible that it could have made a difference. But of course, it’s unprovable.
I hate to disagree with you, Dio (OK, no I don’t), but I’m with the networks on this one. Forget the exit polling and just shut up until everything’s counted. That way you don’t have voter turnout depressed in western states when the media declares a winner at 6:00 pm Pacific.
If that discourages people from voting, then quite frankly, they’re idiots, and fuck 'em. Not only was Florida close regardless of who won, they had to have plenty of local stuff too, the stuff that makes just as much difference in their lives as who the president is. Can’t be bothered to get off their ass? Don’t look for sympathy from me.
A four-letter word that doesn’t even belong in the Pit! I almost pushed the mod button on that one.
He. said. c h a d !
:eek:
FWIW, I don’t pay much attention to the exit polls. I’ll watch CNN for color and keep check on the internet(s) for facts, discounting most of it until its really over.
Why? Because more actors and musicians are urging people to vote?
I am going to go out on a limb, despite my silence on anything political for the past year.
Over the next week, pundits are going to be pontificating about the lower than expected voter turnout on Tuesday. American apathy is still strong, despite the amount of noise being created by talk radio and the blogosphere.
I’ve heard of one five hour wait. If there is a low voter turn out on Tuesday, it will be because they’ve already voted.
My 91 year old mother just voted in her 18th Presidential election. My 62 year old husband just voted in his first.
Finally, Bush has unified the country. He has made voters out of us.
I’m glad that the networks are going to wait until the polls have closed state-wide too. Tennessee may also have been affected by being called early. East Tennessee is on Eastern Time and they are highly Republican. Middle Tennessee is a mixture and is on Central time along with West Tennessee which is mostly Democratic.
I also remember that some Florida voters in the panhandle didn’t bother to vote after the state was called. It was discussed at the time – during the brouhaha after Election night.
I will go with MSNBC if my husband can tolerate Chris Matthews. It’s his voice that drives him nuts. I’ve gotten to where I kind of like it. Or possibly Brokaw for old times sake.
Oh, come on, everything in Florida 2000 is provable one way ore another …
But seriously, is there any evidence that there was anything that happened in the panhandle that would have affected things? (And particularly if they were pro-Gore, why did nobody mention them at the time?) (And if they were pro-Bush, stop your griping, he stole it anyway…)
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