All the evidence is circumstantial…afaik Taiwan has never come right out and admitted they have the things, even unofficially. However, its widely accepted that they have at least a few.
Motive and oppurtunity. They certainly have (and had) the motive to make them. And they had and have the oppurtunity to make them, if not test them. For all we know the US has given them some technology advice as well (only way to make the things smaller short of testing).
-XT
No offense guys, but none of that is evidence. And as we recently disovered in Iraq, saying “that’s just the kind of thing they would do” is not proof that a weapons progam exists. Any links to a cite saying Taiwan was found to be doing suspicious things with its nuclear energy program, or signs of nuclear bomb testing, or testimony for nuclear scientists who say they helped build bombs for Taiwan?
No offense Little Nemo, but you are asking an impossible question then if we can’t use inference and speculation…because Taiwan keeps it a secret. So, unless someone on this board is privy to super secret Taiwanese nuclear data there is no way to answer this question. If you want to think that absence of evidence is evidence of absence because the US was wrong about WMD in Iraq, well, you aren’t alone…officially the Chinese say Taiwan doesn’t have nukes either. In fact, the Taiwanese government agrees with you too…officially. THEY say they don’t have the things either. So, you are in good company.
-XT
Iran doesn’t admit to having nuclear weapons either, but there is plenty of evidence that they do. The same thing happened with Israel, South Africa, Pakistan, India, and North Korea - in all these cases there was evidence that was being publically discussed, in some cases for years, before these countries admitted they had bombs.
Can somebody point me to a headline that says something like:
“AEC says Taiwanese nuclear reactor program under suspicion of diverting fuel”
“Intelligence sources detect evidence of nuclear test in Yushan Mountains”
“A.Q. Khan says he sold nuclear bomb secrets to Taipei”
“Taiwanese President hints at ‘strategic capabilities’ in talks with mainland”
I mean if the bombs are supposed to be a deterrent, don’t you have to let someone know they exist?
The ambiguity allows Taiwan to benefit from the deterrent without provoking international condemnation by violating the non-proliferation treaty.[
Hinting at their possession would, it seems to me, unnecessarily complicate matters and be seen as them thumbing their nose at China. Better to just say “Oh, no, of course not, we’d never have any such things” and let China and the rest of the world deduce what China Guy wrote above.
I’m not, but if you want anecdotes, I used to know someone who knew someone who was in a position to know. While living in Taiwan, I had dinner at a students house whose dad had worked as an executive for a defense contractor. As we gradually became inebriated, (and I managed to impress him with not being a wholly ignorant waiguaren), he said that while he didn’t know anything for sure, he did not think that Taipei was not lying when they said they did not have active nuclear weapons. But he also said that there had been specifications on some of the weapons systems that he was familiar with that led him to conclude that they were being made compatible with warheads (does that make sense?). Actually, he didn’t say that; he just laughed and either nodded or shook his head as I asked questions. It’s entirely possible he was screwing with me; but I don’t think so.
Anyway, I walked away concluding that the ROC could assemble a warhead in days, perhaps hours if need be. Everything else I’ve read confirms that in my mind. FWIW.
Why would Taiwan tell anybody except China that they have nukes (or the ability to put one together in a matter of hours)? There is no advantage to being put on the nuclear pariah list and plenty of economic deterrents.
nope, I can’t give you a definative answer Little Nemo to something that if true would be the most closely guarded secret in Taiwan.
Google Taiwan Nuclear Bomb and you’ll get a couple of hundred thousand hits. Here’s one view purporting that such a program was thwarted : http://www.isis-online.org/publications/taiwan/pr121997.html
Now, here is a question: Since the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty allows a couple of nations to own nuclear weapons (including the PRC), and the People’s Republic adamantly claims that Taiwan is part of China, wouldn’t that mean Taiwan could own nuclear weapons legally under the treaty?