I have been reading on the net and newspapers, and have been watching CNN constantly to keep tabs on the situation we have going on here…but, I have yet to have read or heard ANYTHING about the possibility of a war coming from this situation…Now, I of course no that is basicly because we don’t want to even think of it or anything, untill we know for sure there is any other way to get this resolved…but, I’m now asking you all…Do you think a war with China will come from this? If so, how do u think it will begin, how it will be fought, how long it will last…who will win…let’s here your thoughts!!!
No, there will be no war. Neither the US and China are going to risk the lives of millions of people in order to rescue 24.
Since we are not ar war with China and our people are not being mistreated or are in any immediate physical danger, it is unlikely we would lauch a military rescue mission.
However, if I understand your question, you are asking about possible scenarios where a war might develop from this situation. Well, lets see if I can create one:
US or China loses patience and breaks off negotiations. US responds by launching a rescue mission to free our people.
China retaliates by attacking US fleet.
It is unlikely that China would defeat the US Navy, however political pressure could cause the US to pull out of the area.
China now has an opportunity to invade Taiwan leading to a reunification of the 2 Chinas.
Nuclear war - Unlikely. US arsenal is pretty big and China knows this.
US invasion of mainland China - Also unlikely. US public opinion wouldn’t allow this (unless all the lessons of Korea and Japan have been forgotten)
I’m not sure why so many people are even considering the possibility that war will spring out of this. The economic ties between the two countries are too strong right know. American corporations that have invested billions in China aren’t interested in seeing their hopes for profit vanish, and the Chinese plans for economic growth rest on continuing investment from the international community. Of course, certain Americans try to paint China as a totalitarian, hateful country that is just waiting for an opportunity to start violent conflict, but this view just doesn’t coincide with reality.
Also, I recall a Newsweek report that said that to launch an invasion of Taiwan, China would need to land five divisions simultaneously, and there just isn’t the necessary military capability. After all, that’s the same force that the Allies used in the Normandy invasion, which was the largest seaborn invasion of all times. I’m not even clear as to what China would supposedly gain from invading Taiwan at this point.
The only likely way that war can come from this is if the Chinese kill one (or all) of our men. And they may not exactly have the strongest economy, but they’re not nearly that stupid.
I think there are several factors that could arrive at approximately the same time and dramatically escalate tensions between China and the US. These events probably wouldn’t lead directly to war in and of themselves, but they’d be putting a lot more tinder in the tinderbox:
(1) China sets off a nuclear test in the midst of negotiations with the US over the 24 servicemen.
(3) The factions in China that are detaining the US crew remains utterly obstinate, leading to a full-blown “hostage crisis”. --or, alternatively . . .
(4) The Chinese leadership prevails upon the aforesaid factions to give up the crew, and popular outrage results . . .
(5) . . . in turn possibly leading to an ouster or outright coup against Jiang Zemin.
(6) Washington prevails upon the Olympic Committee to reject Beijing for the 2008 Games
(7) The US Congress goes off the deep end in selling arms to Taiwan, including the Aegis system, causing China to dramatically increase its own arms program and bring further political tension to bear against Taipei
(8) The US Congress votes down permanent MFN status for China and/or votes for trade sanctions . . .
(9) . . . leading to a dramatic economic downturn in China . . .
(10) . . . which again possibly results in popular unrest, ousters, and coups against the current regime in China.
I could see any or all of these points playing out before the summer is out. If they do, I’d say that some kind of military conflict is quite possible by the end of the year or sometime next year. A minor skirmish or World War III, who can say. What worries me is that the Chinese can see that the US is now serious about missile defense, and likely fear that their own nuclear arsenal will soon be rendered impotent. Will they think to themselves, “use it or lose it”?
I’m not necessarily arguing with you, SPOOFE, but which Chinese are you talking about? The President of China, who’s dancing the samba down in South America right now, or the same military nuts down in South China who sent up the late lamented Captain Wang Wei up to play bumpercars with a slow-moving propeller plane–and who still have our people in custody? I think there’s definitely a question here of who’s in charge–and if it is the PLA, I don’t know if I’d trust them to act in a completely rational manner (rational from our perspective).
I’m not exactly sure it matters. If word gets out that our men were killed while being held captive, it won’t matter who was truly responsible… people will be calling for Chinese blood.
Unless people have become far more apathetic about their country than even I estimate… if that were the case, if people don’t care about American soldiers getting killed in captivity overseas, then I weep for us all.
(Goddamn, gotta love that melodrama!)
SPOOFE: But the point you were making was that the Chinese wouldn’t be so stupid as to kill one of our people bcs it would ruin their economy; and I was saying that there are different factions in China that might see their country’s self-interest in different terms from one another.
Ay caramba!
I swear there is a faction of Americans who have some bizarre, deep-seated emotional need for this situation to escalate. Pipe down, ya war-mongers. This is just a little diplomatic dust-up that’ll be resolved calmly and peacefully as long as a bunch of hotheads don’t make it their mission to create open conflict with China.
Political Pressure. From whom? The UN? Only if we’re in Chinese territorial waters. My best advice would be to put the Pacific Fleet about 200 miles off the coast. We already have people in Taiwan. We just set and wait. Their navy is laughable compared to ours. And our air force could put them down in a heart beat.
Why would you even mention that? You have to remember, at one time, we wanted seperation from a much larger power. The people of Taiwan have chosen to separate from the PRC. Why not support them. Don’t we want democracy all over the world?
Nuclear attack on us unlikely, however they do have them pointed at Taiwan too. Last time I checked, they didn’t like Taiwan.
We could invade china, you know, cause a civilian uprising, seeing as how the civilians have the army severly out numbered. We’ll fund them in a round about way if anything.
So i agree with you on that.
The key here is to expect the unexpected!!!
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[/QUOTE]
Immaturity.
*Originally posted by shagadelicmysteryman *
Depending on the situation, other powers. Japan, Korea, Europeans might or might not support escalation over an intervention/rescue mission. Too many variables to predict, but one should not assume everyone is going to be just happy about this.
You should remember that the official Taiwanes position is not in favor of independance. Within Taiwan itself, to my understanding, there is much division over separation. Further, insofar as the present situation largely gives Taiwan what it wants – de facto independance, democracy and a liberal economy, why rock the boat? The US stays carefully circuspect in this area because a precipitious “solution” to the ambiguity is likely to be a lose-lose situation.
Ergo, let’s forget simplistic and misplaced analogies to the 18th century.
China wants to “recover” Taiwan as an intact province, not a slag heap. The PRC government doesn’t “like” the government or independance of Taiwan, it bloody well wants Taiwan whole and intact however.
Oh yes, “cause a civilian uprising” – is this like the civilian uprising in Iraq against Saddam Hussein. Listen kid, other countries have nationalist feelings too. “Uprisings” sponsored from the outside are hard to pull off. All the more so when the sponsoring power is apparently, per recent reports, widely percieved in the country to be ‘fucking’ with one’s home country.
As per Tiannamen…
Spoke-, I with you on this.
The general agreement among the “experts” is that China is no real threat to us militarily. But lately it has made me wonder with all of our “reconnaisance”, trade agreements and diplomacy with China how this incident seems to have blind-sided us. I am sure that within China among the business communtiy there is pressure to settle this thing. There is similar pressure here of course. I believe like usual that economic interests will prevail here.
Needs2know
Keep this in mind. If we actually go to war with China, our soldiers will have to go in without any hats. All the Army’s new black berets are ‘Made in China’ and are sitting in a Chineses warehouse somewhere.
Grab a copy of “The Bear and the Dragon” by Tom Clancy. It will give you tons of scenario material for this type of pondering.
Yeah, and think about this:
What if the Chinese showed up at the war with our hats on? Could we bear the humiliation?
I can’t see a “real” war developing from this. Even if we examine an extreme contingency such as China going completely nuts and executing the “guests”, declaring war on China would be a possibility, but taking over China wouldn’t be a realistic goal. If we wanted to, we could completely deny China access to the ocean, forcing them to rely solely on land transportation as well as destroying the fishing industry. Combined with an embargo, even if it is unilateral, we could make China pay billions of dollars for these 24 people, all without any significant risk to our armed forces. I don’t see any need to actually engage China’s armed forces, unless they want to send their ships and planes to certain death.
Things to ponder:
1 - Any violence against China may lead to the spawning of yet another bunch of terrorists bent on revenge for whatever happens.
2 - Economic sanctions in this situation might, maybe, be a lot more effective than any of us are thinking right now. The Chinese make way more off of us than we do from them, and I’m sure as a percentage of their economy it’s quite a bit more too. For us, the impact would be, quite frankly, derisory. China as an economic power is way overrated.
The problem is that economic sanctions would take a loong time to become effective, if ever, given that Europe and most of Asia would rush in to fill whatever gap we leave.
From what I read, the Chinese take a while in negotiations where they think they have all the cards. So the best thing for us is patience, followed, once we have our people back, by a turning of the screws in some area that would get the attention of the Chinese and enrage them. Options here would be selling advanced arms to Taiwan, or delaying indefinitely their entry into the WTO, or raising tariffs against some of their imports on some allegedly unrelated grounds.
Right, and we’ll have 'Nam paved over with parking stripes by Christmas. How could those gooks in black pajamas be any match for our boys?
BTW, you are aware that China has at least 20 nuclear bombs and missiles capable of reaching California?
It’s true that China is our military inferior, but that doesn’t mean that we can necessarily walk all over them. Of course, as I stated earlier, I’m confident that there won’t be any war. However, as a general policy issue, we should not be so arrogant when considering the possibility of fighting with another country, especially when it’s China. Last I heard, China had a military of 3,000,000 while the United States had only 100,000 personnel in Asia and the West Pacific.
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That’s cute. Do you think their Navy is a match for ours and if so, why? I don’t think the Chinese our idiots but I bet we’d be able to destroy most of what they threw at us and if not we’d probably be able to out produce them anyway.
And you’re aware that we have many more missiles to use on their entire country? A country that isn’t much bigger then ours but has a higher population density.
Marc