China mines over 95% of these minerals which just about creates a monopoly for them. (Not a good situation for the rest of the world).
Does this mean that these minerals are just about only found within the borders of China or that other locations that have these minerals haven’t started mining them yet for economic or other reasons. Granted China covers a large area of land, but it would seem unlikely that these minerals would pretty much only be found there. The earth is a big place.
They are found in many other countries: China has a near monopoly because it has the deposits that are cheapest to mine. However, if China continues to restrict sales of rare earths, those other countries will doubtless start (or resume) mining.
I saw a report from Japan that highlights the vulnerability of Japan’s manufacturing sector to restrictions in the supply of these metals. It referred to other potential sources including South America, USA and Africa.
Bokan Mountain on South Prince of Wales Island, Alaska, is thought to be the largest discovery of rare earth metals in US history. The project has been moving forward for some years now, but starting a mining operation takes some time.
I believe that congress has passed a resolution to try and speed up the process. Bokan is in the Tongass National Forest so it under federal environmental protections and all the NEPA work still has to done and a final finding issued prior to any real work being done.
I think one of the reasons that these deposits are cheapest to mine in China is that China is willing to do so with fewer pollution controls than other countries.
A couple months ago in the NYTimes there was an article about this. I don’t recall when exactly, but you could probably find it if you looked. Anyway, apparently the US was once upon a time the main (or maybe only) source of rare earths. Then China got into the business, undercut the US refiners who then went out of business. The article mentioned that China bought out the equipment of the American manufacturers. They bought at least one complete refinery. It’s called free enterprise. As I said on another thread, “Lie down with dogs. get uip with fleas.”
Even without China restricting the exports, evidence suggests the boom in China’s domestic manufacturing actually means they need a large portion of the rare earths they will be producing.
I’m usually not much of one for protectionism but it may have been a little short sighted that the United States didn’t take measures to at least keep a small portion of our rare earths industry up and running via subsidy or something of that nature.
As it stands eventually more countries will be producing and things will stabilize, but everything I’ve read strongly suggests rare earths are going to be in short supply for the medium term (5-15 years.) Most likely of course this isn’t doomsday, just means countries will have to recycle more and it also means some other third world countries with fewer environmental procedures than the United States may have some mines come online in the future as well.
I have read that many of these rare earths are also available in Africa (sometimes in war-torn regions), and that China is also investing heavily in those countries that have available minerals, for example contributing money to build infrastructure in those countries. Here is a sample article discussing it.
A late bump but how things change in less than two years. From China feeling the need to hoard to provide for their own needs, “short supply for … 5-15 years”, to
It’s just a typical supply-and-demand cycle. Prices were low, so low it wasn’t economical for most mines to be open. China supplied most of the demand at this low price. When they restricted supply, the price shot up (something like going from $6/ton to $400/ton). At those prices other mines suddenly became profitable, so they were opened. Manufacturers researched ways to make their products with fewer or no RREs.
So supply went up and demand went down. Prices naturally went down too. But are still above what they were before.
