China Wants Aircraft Carriers-How Long To Develop Naval Air Arm?

It seems unlikely (I hope) that the major powers will fight in the near future. And in a nuclear missile exchange I doubt if a carrier task force would last long anyway. So our new friend Barndoor probably has a point (though I would ask him even if China destroyed all od the airbases in Taiwan how they will get their invading army ashore). That aside I believe the China’s will be reunited in my lifetime.

Why does China want a carrier? Hell if I know- seems like a very expensive toy that will be useless.

The U.S. has 11+1 in reserve and another 1 under construction. The U.K., Italy and France each has 2. Russia, India, Brazil and Thailand each has 1. Japan has 1 Hyuga Class helicopter carrier in service and another 1 will be ready in a couple of years. They are designed to be easily converted for F-35s. They are planning for even larger ones.

Now you are asking why China need to have a few of these toys?

The U.S. eliminated nearly all native Americans in the 19th century.

It also neutered Canada and Mexico.

The Monroe Doctrine and revolutions rendered all other American countries powerless.

The two wars castrated Germany, France, the U.K and Japan.

Then the Cold War sterilized the U.S.S.R.

Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf oil-producing countries are only taking U.S. dollars which may become useless someday.

Now what do you want if China is not allowed to have a certain degree of armed forces?

Give each Chinese man, women and children a smallpox-infested blanket so they will not pose a threat?

Lived and worked two years in beautiful 中国, where I sought to learn everything i could about the place. Also, I regularly troll the China Daily boards. Nothing is easier than getting a bunch of fenqing in a tizzy.

I’m just wondering if you can give us some clue about where your perspective is coming from. Chicken (or Kool-Aid) is beyond the scope of this thread.

Living and working in China for two years? Many Chinese have spend a lifetime living in the U.S. and they could not speak English.

So you don’t like Chinese carriers in the international waters? How about a round of arms limitation talks between Beijing and D.C. It has been done before between the White House and the Kremlin in the early 1970s. These talks were called SALT I and SALT II. If China really does not need even one carrier and China must stop building them, why not a talk?

Now, can you picture a “good China”? Or the mere existence of the Chinese people on earth is too unbearable? If China has to cut its already small navy, how many ships does the U.S. has to cut?

Thousands of China’s brightest students are currently living, studying and working in the U.S. How many of them dares to say: “我在美國待兩年了,有什麼不懂的都來問我”?

I’ve been in the U.S. for two years. If you have any question, ask me!

There are countless Japanese, Taiwanese, Korean, Vietnamese and Singaporeans living, studying and working in China. It bet very few of them dares to call themselves a China-know-it-all.

Sometimes, I must wonder aloud how could there be so many bright yankees who would put two years on his résumé. I love people who have the guts.

Well, yeah, we are. You spelled it out pretty clearly before all the reasons why China wouldn’t need such an expensive toy, and even went at length to explain why carrier-based aircraft are inferior to land-based ones.

I have already mentioned it in the very beginning. Today’s carriers are not used to fight another carrier. They are used to clean up scumbags. Pardon my French. The U.S. only uses carriers to threaten or eliminate these low-grade, z-class, stone-age failed states.

If China builds a carrier, it must be used to patrol south sea or Indian Ocean’s miserable neighborhoods. Two carriers only guarantees that China may have one carrier ready for one area at any moment.

Am I clear enough?

I’d say you’re being more than a little derogatory towards more than a few countries that the US has gone to war with, never mind the off-topic stuff you’ve been peppering the discussion with in regards to the US. You’ll find you’ll get a much better discussion going if you show a bit of respect towards others.

And the US has yet to burn down your strawman argument.

Look dude, people are curious as to why you’re so strongly defending an apparently very pro Chinese position in regards to this, now, there’s nothing wrong in that, however, you have to agree that in some people, myself included, it raises various questions as to why you are so adamantly defending this position.

Hey if the Chinese choose to come to this country and not bother to apply themselves then whose fault is that?
even sven went to China applied themselves and learned at least some Chinese. BTW I don’t see where es claimed to be an expert after 2 years, perhaps you could point it out.

It’s pretty obvious why China would want its own carriers - to secure oil, for one thing. China is increasingly dependent on foreign energy - energy which is getting in ever-shorter supply. You can imagine a world in the medium-distance future (say, 20-50 years out) in which there is real contention for oil and other resources, and the countries that can project force can impose blockades (or break them), promise security to nations in exchange for mineral rights, etc.

For example, there is going to be increasing tension over northern waters above Canada. As the ice melts, it exposes new areas for deep-water drilling, creates shipping lanes, and in general becomes a new source of untapped wealth. Russia and Canada are already staking claim over it - Canada is building new military vessels to defend those claims, and so is Russia.

Plus, a carrier group is kind of an ante you have to play if you want to be considered a superpower. China has ambitions to be a superpower. Superpowers build alliances around the world, and then are expected to defend them. That requires power projection. It’s why the U.S. has ten carrier battle groups.

All that said, I think China will find it a lot harder to float a viable CBG that it imagines. As others have pointed out, carriers go to sea with a whole flotilla of support ships including cruisers and destroyers. That in turn creates big logistical problems (you’re moving a LOT of fuel across oceans constantly). The logistic tail has to be protected as well. So then you need subs. And since the Americans have hunter-killer subs, you need your own defenses against those. And so it goes. Carriers are just one part of an extremely expensive, high tech infrastructure. The U.S. has been building on and perfecting its carrier strategy for seventy years. It has a huge head start over anyone else who would try.

In addition, what makes the U.S. so effective is its overwhelming advantage in organization and communication. AWACS, satellites, computing power, and advanced military networks that are hardened and tie it all together. Hell, America has the ability to launch drone bombers or surveillance craft from American soil, fly them over conflicts almost anywhere in the world, and fly them home without landing anywhere else.

China currently has so many holes in its military technology that it couldn’t hope to field a battle group of any kind of effectiveness for a long, long time. But then China tends to think in the long term.

Then there’s the cost. A carrier can cost $5 billion or more to build. An entire carrier battle group could cost $20 billion including support, aircraft, etc. And a CBG can cost several billion dollars per year to operate. China’s GDP is still only about a third of the U.S.'s, so a carrier would cost China three times as much in terms of percentage of GDP. Carrier Battle Groups are barely affordable for the U.S., so it’s hard to see China being able to afford to do it right.
Because carriers take a LONG time to build, test, float, and equip, countries who want them have to plan for the world that may exist 30 years from now, not the world that exists today. So it’s no surprise that China might be thinking about carriers. And maybe they can get away with more limited support on the theory that the U.S. isn’t about to attack Chinese carriers, and no one else has the capability. If you just want to project power to defend, say Venezuela in exchange for oil rights, and you’re really just playing a big game of chicken, maybe you can cut some corners and get away with it. For that purpose your defenses don’t have to be impregnable, they just have to be reasonably credible.

I was thinking wu mao dang 五毛党 myself. They are all over the place. Just a matter of time before this place picked one up.

That comment regarding Chinese and small-pox blankets was very poor taste in what was civil discussion. Personally, I expect that kind of drivel-logic on a China-related forum, but not here.

I’m expecting a flame for my accusation, which is characteristic of uber-nationalists.

puts on flame-retardant suit

More likely, a blue-water navy is something a Great Power has to have in order to think of itself as one. Carriers are the most prestigious symbols of blue-water navies. Ergo, they want one.

A most amusing fantasy there, Sam. One in which China would feel the need to fight World War III against countries it already holds by the financial balls, and which constitute most of its export markets. Been reading Tom Clancy again, have you?

Well, you get someone to churn out these A++ grade replies for 50 cents each.

As to the holes in Chinese military technologies:

Everyone knows something about the Phalanx CIWS. I guess very few people really understand that in a real all-out war, the multi-barreled gun will eat up all the rounds in just a few seconds and then a number of brave sailors have to go there and reload the magazine. It’s not like reload your M-16. It may take several minutes and they will be exposed to enemy fire or very rough sea conditions.

There are more than ten ships in a CSG carrying the Phalanx. You probably won’t see the carrier’s one being reloaded very often. However if you are on an Aegis boat that’s on the outskirt of the fleet facing enemy fire, you may have a good rock-and-roll time reloading these magazines.

Is that a hole? Possibly not. It’s a hole if it gets you killed.

People here seem to be sure there will be an all-out war between the U.S. and China in the whatever future. Nothing is impossible. And the Chinese navy will surely learn a lesson. Now, there are about a dozen non-U.S. carriers floating on the water any time of the year. Why don’t you think that the U.S. will one day teach Brazil or Thailand a hard lesson?

They are allies?

And Chinese are enemies?

Needless to say it you send today’s U.S. navy to fight today’s PLAN, the latter could be history before the day is over.

How about 10 years later or 20?

No bucks no Buck Rogers. How much money are you willing to pay to guarantee U.S. supremacy for decades to come?

I don’t think there will be another Vietnam-like conscription in the states. I know you will all get your deferral. So don’t worry. There will be army-going kids.

When will China invade Hawaii (formerly an independent kingdom) or Los Angeles?

Or do you want to make up an excuse so you can launch a preemptive strike just like Iraq 2003?

And then what’s the TRUE reason why China cannot have a fleet?

How many land neighbors does the U.S. have?

Did the U.S. invade Canada in 1812?

And how many times did you fight Mexico and take their northern lands? TX, NM, AZ, CA, …

Will the future conflict between U.S. and China a war really needed?

Or you just want to prove that two kings cannot co-exist on a piece of chess board. There must be one loser.

We needn’t bother.

Given the way they interact with their animals, we can just wait for them to produce it on their own – like SARS, swine flue, H1N1 bird flu, etc. We just have to take precautions to prevent them from spreading it to us.

It was Spanish flu first. Before Spanish flu, there was the French disease. Are you gonna be Dirty Harry? China is a disease and you’re the cure?

I wonder how “Fighting Ignorance Since 1973” means …

Got a cite for that? Because I can’t recall any of us saying that the US and the PRC will fight a war.

You totally lost me here. Could you rephrase this part?

Two, as a matter of act, why do you ask?

Sure, and the British invaded the US, and interfered with our shipping and conscripted sailors off of American ships into the Royal Navy. There was a whole lot of stuff going on in both directions before and during the War of 1812. Not really sure what that has to do with the PLAN and aircraft carriers (although it was pretty much the first time an American navy was able to fight the Royal Navy and achieve something like parity, winning as many fights as we lost. A pretty big deal for us considering that in the American Revolution, the primary duty of the Continental Navy was to supply the British with gunnery targets.

Just the once for NM, AZ, CA (and Nevada, if you’re curious). The Republic of Texas joined the United States voluntarily by treaty.

Well, one certainly hopes that war doesn’t happen between the US and China, obviously. We’re talking about practical uses for the Chinese to have an aircraft carrier, and you seem to be stuck on a scenario where the PLAN and the USN go up against each other, which nobody else is talking about. Why are you so stuck on this topic?

Also, as I’m sure you know in regards to Chess, you can have two Kings on a chessboard, as one possible ending is a stalemate (Or, as I learned in a classic Matthew Broderick movie, you could always just choose not to play)

Fun fact, Spain was actually not where Spanish Flu came from, it was just the only major country that didn’t censor news reports about the disease (most of the other major powers were tied up in fighting World War I, and didn’t want the morale hit to destroy their war efforts)

Well, we keep going 12 rounds with you, don’t we? :rolleyes: