If China is really, honestly, truly ramping up to fight the United States for international superpower relevance, they’re not going to try to actually battle it out, not unless they think they can win with a crushing victory.
This isn’t just “Sun Tsu says” stuff either. This is just plain practical politics.
A carrier is the nation equivalent of a Ferrari–a status symbol. China wants to be one of the Big Boys, so of course they want the Toys that go with it. This (temporarily) placates the more hawkish folk, who are at least semi-serious about taking over Asia, but at the same time doesn’t present an overly aggressive stance towards the rest of the world. After all, it’s just one lousy obsolete aircraft carrier.
Come back in fifty years and talk to me about Chinese superpower status. (One wonders what’ll happen if the Christians become a numerical majority by then…)
If only students in the U.S. spend a little more time on the books …
There have been a number of conquerers in history. China had been the top dog for at least several hundred years. I don’t recall any Chinese emperor had the idea of moving out the motherland and rule the whole world. The Chinese land was the whole world.
Darius I of Persia, Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, … Adolf Hitler, George W. Bush … None of them was Chinese. You may count Genghis Khan. But he was Mongolian.
If you admit the fact that China had been a world power throughout much of the world’s known history, you will notice that the expansion of China was quite sluggish for European and Mid-Eastern standards.
Now you may say China conquered whole China. Certainly. How about the English invasions of Scotland, Wales and Ireland?
The current Chinese territory including Xizhang (Tibet) was under a significant amount of Chinese cultural influence. It was much much much more than John Tyler’s application of the Monroe Doctrine to Hawaii (1842). Then why did people talk about Xizhang as if it is not a part of China? Did you know about the British occupation of India?
China has always been naturally contained. And the U.S. has a long history of taking other people’s lands and seas. I think this is the only problem here.
Again, with the random off-topic stuff. I just want to address a couple of things you say that contradict each other:
You state that China has historically not had any designs on “The Whole World”, and that China has generally stayed “in China”.
You state that China was a world power. Which goes against 1). Either they kept to themselves or they were a world power, you can’t have it both ways.
And no, I’d have to say that China was certainly never a world power before the 20th century, and even now it’s open to debate. A world economic power perhaps, politically much less so. A great regional power, certainly.
Sorry that you don’t see my sarcasm. Maybe there will be more straight talk.
During the glorious days of British supremacy, many Brits settled in foreign countries. They went to India, Hong Kong, African colonies … I have read some 19th century British magazines such as Nature (1869-). It was much different from today’s Nature. They talked about the Franco-Prussian War and Livingston expeditions and the global observation of solar eclipse.
English people always go to the places where they have conquered.
Then how about today’s U.S.?
You don’t go out. You think you have already know it all.
Two years in China means you are already one of these alpha monkeys.
Ha!
There are Chinese people who knows just a handful of alphabets living in the U.S.
There are even more U.S. alpha monkeys (by percentage) who have been in China for years but still can’t ask for directions. (Well, sometimes its useless to ask anyway. Many cities are changing so rapidly that even locals may not know either.)
On the other hand, there are many Chinese people living, working or studying in the U.S. Maybe very few of them could learn anything about western culture, but there are thousands of them. There are very few alpha monkeys like you who would brag two years.
What’s really funny is that the American “alpha monkey” he’s going on about is even sven, who isn’t an American, and doesn’t live in the US. Maybe finding out a little about the people one is talking with, before talking, would help as much as actually trying to talk to them, rather than at them, hmmm?
With the dirty harry and other far outdated references, this guy’s paid shilling reads a lot like that purported North Korean twitter account. I’m thoroughly enjoying this.
Really, really cannot understand the relevance of some of his points though.
[nitpick] even sven is indeed an American.
[/nitpick]
Nobody in the US wants to fight China.
However, the idea that the PRC has that Taiwan is part of them that they must have back will eventually force that issue, one way or another.
The United States of America is bound by treaty to defend Taiwan and the Republic of China in the event of an attack by the PRC.
We don’t want to, but when folks start talking about how Taiwan is part of China, and lobbing unguided missles and killing millions of civilians to retake it, we begin to understand why it may be necessary…
Of all the arguments about China, their (alleged) desire to invade Taiwan makes no sense to me. First, China absorbed Hong Kong-and kept it going essentailly the same way the British did…why? Because it is good for business. The Chinese are extremely pragmatic-Deng Shao Ping essentially said-what ever works, we’ll call it “communism”-he didn’t let ideology get in the way of profits.
So the idea that China would expend billions and thousands of lives to forcibly absorb Taiwan, is absolutely senseless to me. Taiwan already is a huge investor in China, and Taiwan businessmen regulalry travel to their factories on the mainland. Why upset the applecart?
I can see a Chinese government essentially saying: “we will integrate your economy with ours (common currency)-you keep your government, don’t criticize us, and we let you carry on as before”. Perfect solution-and no lives lost, no money wasted.
A very Chinese solution.
That will work as long as the economy remains rosy. Unfortunately, beyond “we’ll make you rich,” the CCP has very little to rely on to unite the country. Their only fall back is the Chinese National Myth that goes along the lines of “China is the oldest, most sophisticated culture in the world. Then the uncivilized but brutal foreigners, out of jealousy and spite, subjected China to her ‘century of humiliation.’ Now the CCP will return China to her former glory and rightful place in the world.”
Taiwan has evolved to be the capstone of that return to glory. It has been positioned as the final sign that the century of humiliation is over and China is whole, strong, and respected.The CCP itself may be willing to say “Hey, no biggie, it’s just an island” but the people won’t. Its symbolic value is too entrenched. It is THE final sign that China has risen.
So while things are good and people are happy, there isn’t much to worry about. But if the economy sours, people are going to start becoming really restless, really quickly. The Party will be left grasping at straws to remain in power. With nothing much to lose, a patriotic war on Taiwan might be their last-ditch gambit to keep the people behind them.
Colonization and cultural assimilation isn’t just the purvey of the Evil Westerners, either. Just ask all of those extinct peoples that the “Han” ran over in order to take over the Middle Kingdom.
The Silk Road wasn’t just built on the Roman side, either. There used to be Caucasians living in Western China. Where’d they all go?
The only reason China hasn’t expanded very far beyond its greatest empire size is that it’s very geographically prohibitive to go invading India and Russia, and little things like natural disasters and everybody in charge getting killed and replaced with a new set of relatives tends to put a hamper on international aspirations.
The Chinese attitude towards the “barbarian”, like all other “civilized” cultures, has been one of two reactions:
They’re too beneath our notice to warrant ANY response. Live and let live.
They clearly need to be brought into the fold of the Great Kingdom so that they, too, can know how wonderful it is to be like us. And if they don’t want to be like us, tough shit.
If you’d like me to repeat all of that in Mandarin for you, I’ll gladly do so.
Ah yes, the Chakri Naruebet, the smallest aircraft carrier in the world. It’s generally regarded here as a white elephant. Dreadfully expensive to maintain, absolutely no need for it beyond prestige value. Almost never taken out anywhere, but rather seems to serve as a tourist site where families can go have their photos taken.
From the link: “A lack of funding brought on by the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis means that the carrier has spent much of her career docked at the Sattahip naval base. The carrier has been deployed on several disaster relief operations, although her other departures from port consist primarily of a single training day per month, and transportation of the Royal Family of Thailand, leading to claims that the ship is merely an oversized royal yacht.”
The fact that they want a carrier of their own sort of puts into perspective how dangerous THEY think their sooper dooper carrier killer missiles are. I’m with Sam…I think that they are going to find it a lot harder to put it into operation than they think it is (and certainly harder than most non-military people seem to assume they are). It will be interesting to see how it works out for them, and how they are able to use it to build up their navy in the future (I figure that it’s main purpose is really as a training platform to work out doctrine and logistics for future carriers).
I think that by the time the Chinese have a naval air arm, the US Navy is likely to have abandoned human piloted planes (in favor of drones).
It is getting hard to justify the huge cost of piloted fighter planes, plus a drone has much longer endurance.
In any case, the Chinese carrier can only handle STOL/Jmpjet fighter planes-which are very limited in range and capabilities.
I’m with Sam…I think that they are going to find it a lot harder to put it into operation than they think it is (and certainly harder than most non-military people seem to assume they are). It will be interesting to see how it works out for them, and how they are able to use it to build up their navy in the future (I figure that it’s main purpose is really as a training platform to work out doctrine and logistics for future carriers).