Clinton "realists" vs. Sanders "idealists"

One scenario strikes me as much more commonplace than the other. I feel like the percentage of Americans who are marginal Greens who might sometimes vote for the right Democrat is much lower than the percentage who are marginal Democrats who might sometimes vote for the right Republican. But I admit that I don’t actually have data to back up that feeling.

Note: I don’t think this is an argument for Hillary or anything like it. And I agree that neither Sanders nor Clinton voters need to be especially concerned about defections. I just think there are probably more Clinton voters claiming that sincerely than there are Sanders ones.

Yes, exactly. This is particularly true of the kinds of voters who don’t consider themselves Democrats, and wouldn’t vote in a closed primary but might vote in an open one.

I really doubt that. Anyone who’s witnessed Republican antics this century so far (and even back during Clinton’s terms) knows that just about any Democrat is better than just about any Republican. And most of us oldsters do have that long a memory. (Hey, I remember Nixon & Reagan!)

Look into the policies of even the relatively sane Republicans (not Cruz or Trump, that is) & you realize that they just won’t do.

Tell me guys in one short sentence, what Hillarys message is? Why should she be president?

She doesn’t have a bumpersticker message, but I respect that. Here’s a pretty short NPR story that illustrates what I heart about her.

Well, I’m not going to say that’s a bad thing, unless it leads to Republicans making judicial (particularly SCOTUS) appointments.

What, as opposed to a Republican? She’s on the correct side of various issues, and would presumably be checked from doing anything too silly by a GOP House and a GOP Senate that’d presumably wreak havoc with a GOP President.

As opposed to Bernie, she – appears to be more moderate and thus more electable, and thus more likely to check said GOP House and GOP Senate.

Try Vermontpudlians.

I think it’s useful to separate two groups: swing voters, on the one hand, and the kind of people who are now threatening not to vote for the other potential Democratic nominee. They are very different.

Swing voters are the millions of Americans who know fuck-all about political history or the positions of the respective parties. They are low-information voters who have no coherent political ideology but do have strong feelings about a handful of political issues. Often their handful of chosen issues cross party lines. Maybe they are against coal regulation and pro-union. Maybe they are pro-choice and want to ban all Muslims from entering the US. These people really do swing their vote from election to election. And there’s really no amount of “look what [party] did last time” that will change it.

They are a different group from the defection-threateners. Almost by definition, the defection-threateners are high-information voters because they are following the process at this stage and having political conversations with other people. They are not the swing voters whose number are legion. They are, in fact, a fairly tiny population who either genuinely fall right in the sweet spot between candidates (say, Bricker in 2008), or vote for high-minded reasons other than policy preferences (LHoD’s example of the voter who usually wastes a vote by voting Green but makes an exception for Sanders).

I don’t think either candidate has a good claim to swing voters, because swing voters vote for stupid reasons. They don’t respond to information about a candidate’s relative political positioning. And I think neither candidate has a strong claim to defectioners, because they are quite rare and often insincere, but to the extent one has a better claim than the other it is Hillary.

Hilary Clinton should be president because she is not a Republican.

Short enough? I can edit it down if not.

I’m a realist in all things, but that isn’t why I support Hillary over Bernie (and I’m a lifelong Republican and have no designs on changing that, but I’ve voted Democrat before and will this year, and probably few a few more years until the party has worked the crazy out of itself). I think it’s because I’m one who views the Presidency not as a “box to be filled with ideals” but an administrative role, the Chief Magistrate of the country, the commander in chief, the chief diplomat and the holder of a “sacred trust” to execute the laws and work vigorously for the American interest.

To be frank, the ideals a President holds are important–but most of his/her job isn’t about ideals, it’s about execution. That doesn’t mean I’d vote for a crazy monster who had really good management chops, but it does mean that the President’s most important role aren’t the policy positions he holds, but how he runs the country. Now, those policy positions are important because they can inform a voter as to how the President will run the country. For example is this President a foreign policy interventionist or an isolationist? Somewhere in between?

How often have Obama’s “policy positions” been the most important thing going on? To be frank, pretty rarely. Especially domestic policy. The President’s role is constitutionally limited in domestic policy. Because domestic policy requires work with Congress. Further, to be frank, domestic policy almost always changes gradually and incrementally. I think Hillary has said some smart stuff on reform of the healthcare system that sounds a lot more to me like how our country works–and that shows me she’s more knowledgeable about just that thing, how the country works, and more suited to run it.

Plus, I’m not liberal, I’m centrist/conservative generally, so I don’t necessarily want the same things Bernie does. I do agree with more overhaul of the healthcare system, but I think Obamacare has started us along the path to the “German style” of healthcare, which works great. Bernie is advocating for more of an NHS style system, which is fine–but it’s not the only system they use in Bernie’s beloved Europe and it isn’t the only system that works, either. I don’t share Bernie’s issues with Wall Street at all.

Bernie wants to come in as a revolutionary–but revolutionary Presidents have no power without Congressional support. So that leaves him in the Obama role–a President who promised dramatic changes and then couldn’t do much (and he’ll do less than Obama because he won’t have a two year honeymoon period where the Democrats control both houses of Congress) and Obama to be frank has always been a lackluster administrator. Obama was an ideology President, that I think on some levels was frankly depressed when he learned that without a compliant Congress most of those ideologies aren’t going to be much reflected in legislation, so he was left running the country–a task I don’t feel Obama ever approached with vigor.

Now, I don’t buy into HRC being able to work any better with Congress than Obama or Sanders. I do think she is probably a better negotiator, but negotiating takes two sides, and even though Ryan has done a little better at getting bills to the floor than Boehner, I still think there just isn’t any real negotiation to be had with the current crop of Republicans who run Congress, regardless of which Democrat is in the White House. But again–most of a President’s job is not passing legislation, a President’s job is administrative, diplomatic, and military first and foremost. On all those fronts I have little faith in Sanders interest in, or ability to, execute those roles successfully.

Revolutionary candidates like Sanders can work, but they require grave conditions in the country that allow for dramatic changes in Congress. We’ve arguably had three such revolutionary candidates–FDR who obviously was elected during the Great Depression and had a Congress and a people demanding bold and unprecedented action, Lincoln who came to office right after the Southern states had seceded and who was largely given a blank check of authority to do any thing and everything to preserve the Union (and when Congress was sometimes hesitant with the blank check he largely ignored Congress, and the Supreme Court, for that matter–Lincoln was at times a necessary tyrant), and Andrew Jackson, the first “populist” President, who came to office in a wave of discontent with the established system of the day and responses to various structural issues that had been plaguing early America.

We don’t sit before an election like that. While unfortunately a portion of Americans have seen wage stagnation and poor economic prospects, the economy as a whole is strong. Unemployment is low, GDP growth isn’t great, but it’s not recessionary yet and certainly not depression levels. We don’t have any existential foreign policy or military threats. There is thus no reason to expect Sanders represents the tip of a time of revolutionary change, and thus there is no real place for him in the White House. Revolutionary Presidents elected in mundane times don’t have a lot of levers to pull and don’t usually do very well.

Martin, I found your analysis interesting and well considered. But I’m wondering about your last sentence:

Did you mean this more in a theoretical sense, or do you actually have examples to name of “revolutionary presidents elected in mundane times”?

I would say both Bush and Obama fit that mold, of recent Presidents. Bush didn’t run as one in 2000, he ran as a conservative with a “heart” who supported some types of entitlements for the poor. After 9/11 he pretty dramatically changed the power/scope of the Presidency, law enforcement, the intelligence services and additionally the American use of force doctrine. People use the term some now but it’ll eventually be old hat in foreign policy / PoliSci courses “Bush Doctrine”, namely that America reserves the right to wage pre-emptive war to support its interests.

America has certainly waged non-defensive “covert”/quasi-wars in the past, but nothing like Iraq II and Afghanistan (albeit Afghanistan wasn’t really pre-emptive, but Iraq clearly was.) Before America usually was very strict doctrinally about only getting involved in wars in defense of self or in defense of allies (this even holds true in the controversial Vietnam War and the then-controversial, now less so Korean War.) Even going back to the Spanish-American War we essentially went to war in response to a “perceived” attack (the Spanish mining of the U.S.S. Maine, later proven to be a boiler explosion that had nothing to do with the Spanish.)

I’m not 100% anti-Bush, and I supported him more vigorously during his time in office, but I do think particularly with civil liberties, intelligence agencies, law enforcement and the surveillance state he was responding essentially with a grave overreaction. We’ve subsequently lost much of our privacy rights and some of our liberty, for threats that were vastly exaggerated. The Bush Doctrine may or may not have a place in the world, but it undoubtedly has made the world more dangerous and less stable.

Obama basically campaigned as a revolutionary, promising to ban lobbyists from the White House and to fundamentally alter how “Washington works.” He did really neither of those things, and he did not change how Washington worked .Then he spent most of his Presidency doing a middling to sometimes sub-par administrative job. He passed some good legislation, some decent executive orders, but his Presidency is largely positive only because it prevented worse ideas from being in the White House.

Going way back John Adams also fits this mold–he was gravely undemocratic in several ways (although I do like John Adams in general) in response to (like Bush) vastly exaggerated threats.

It’s generally bad in my opinion to have people with revolutionary thoughts in power as they can often over-react to things. Fortunately Obama’s reaction to realizing his revolutionary ideas couldn’t work was to largely go turtle mode for 8 years, but Bush had a compliant Congress and that was what made it dangerous. Sometimes a revolutionary President like Lincoln or FDR is President, but I think only when the Republic is in grave peril. The Republic has not been in grave peril for 70 years.

Not even during the Cuban missile crisis, or Watergate?

I wouldn’t consider either to be ‘grave peril’, FWIW.

Also, I think the one short sentence that describes Hillary Clinton the best is: Left-leaning wonk-in-chief (or as she would put it “A Progressive who gets things done”).

She’s “a progressive who gets things done.”

That sounds about right to me, with the caveat that “progressive” is very relative. She’s pretty rightwing from my position, given her support for various pretty terrible policies in the past. Part of why I think supporting Sanders is so important right now is that she’s using the word “progressive” to describe herself. Maybe I’m misremembering things, but I don’t recall that being a part, much less a significant part, of her self-description prior to 2015.

I mean she was advocating universal health care “Hillary Care” over 20 years ago. I don’t know if she was using progressive back then, a term that mostly came in vogue in the past five years (well–for modern times, it’s a term that was used more in the past and recently resurrected as a desirable descriptive term among the left), but being out on UHC 20 years ago is pretty progressive by anyone’s measure.

BTW, has Senator Al Franken made an endorsement? You’d think Sanders would be his guy, but you never know.

He’s endorsed Clinton.