Club For Growth: "Trump's A Liberal Politician"

[GIGObuster]

@Starving_Artist

I think we can agree that even with 25% or 31% approval ratings it could still be argued that Trump remains unpopular with minorities.

But the point remains that your claim that Trump only appeals to old white guys has been shown to be very much in error.

You might note also that the more time goes by the more his approval rating with each of the various groups goes up (barring debate screw-ups that is, a possibility that continues to concern me), so I expect his numbers among each of these groups to eventually be higher even than they are now.

Nope, in reality what you are doing is relying on one poll, and what you are doing is really just cherry picking.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/09/about-that-poll-showing-donald-trump-doing-well-with-black-voters/

In Quinnipiac’s poll, Trump gets 3 percent of the black vote. In Fox’s, 10 percent. In CNN/ORC’s, Trump gets 24 percent of the vote – among all non-white voters (Hispanics, for instance, lean Democratic but not nearly as much as African Americans). That poll is also about a month older than SurveyUSA’s. SurveyUSA is something of an outlier on this question, showing much more support for Trump among black voters than Quinnipiac or CNN.

Notice too that SurveyUSA has a much higher percentage of people who said that they didn’t know how they would vote – in other words, there’s a lot of empty space between the bars showing support for Trump and Clinton and 100 percent of respondents. This is likely a function of the methodology used by SurveyUSA.

@Starving_Artist

That’s fine. You keep comforting yourself with nonsense like low information voters (:rolleyes:) and ignoring what minorities themselves are saying, and I’ll continue believing what I believe, and we’ll let time tell which of us is right. But since this thread is once again becoming a case of me vs. your and iiandyiiii non sequiturs, I’m going to bow out until someone else posts something worth addressing.

The comforting thing is to know that the evidence already does show that indeed you are not well informed, no wonder you are going for Trump.

[Starving_Artist]

I’m afraid you’re the one doing the cherry picking. You’re trying to compare the Quinnipiac poll numbers which measured overall approval ratings (presumably including Democrats) with the poll I referenced which measured minority approval in a head-to-head against Hillary Clinton. Not the same thing at all.

[GIGObuster]

@Starving_Artist

I’m afraid you’re the one doing the cherry picking. You’re trying to compare the Quinnipiac poll numbers which measured overall approval ratings (presumably including Democrats) with the poll I referenced which measured minority approval in a head-to-head against Hillary Clinton. Not the same thing at all.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us08272015_Ueg38d.pdf

7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
   Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Quinnipiac actually does report that Blacks (Blk) will vote thus:

Clinton 91%

Trump 3%

Yes indeed, you are not even wrong on this one. But thank you for demonstrating the low levels of information a Trump follower has.

[iiandyiiii]

@Starving_Artist

I think we can agree that even with 25% or 31% approval ratings it could still be argued that Trump remains unpopular with minorities.

But the point remains that your claim that Trump only appeals to old white guys has been shown to be very much in error.

You might note also that the more time goes by the more his approval rating with each of the various groups goes up (barring debate screw-ups that is, a possibility that continues to concern me), so I expect his numbers among each of these groups to eventually be higher even than they are now.

Not only, just mostly. But I’ll believe that Trump has a serious chance to win when Nate Silver does, and not before. There are experts with good track records in this field, and they are neither Trump nor you nor I. But I know who they are, and I will stick with them.

[GIGObuster]

BTW we should not forget that the FOX poll (and FOX has been so biased in favor of Republicans) has Trump with a 10% support among blacks. Just about what a guy like Bush could expect to get from that minority group.

As I pointed before, it is likely that what we got from SurveyUSA was an outlier, and as other experts pointed this early polling does not mean much because as it happens to many Republicans candidates that do expect to do well with Blacks; they forget about what does happens later, because the Republicans themselves then make moves that continue to remind the minorities why they should not vote for Republicans anyway.

[elucidator]

@Starving_Artist

… and the singularity known as Donald Trump…

So, like a black hole, then? With a non-event horizon, sucking whole galaxies into his wormhole?

[foolsguinea]

The Club for Greed? They still exist?

[marshmallow]

I thought they already tried the “Trump’s a fake Dem working for Hillary” angle in the first debate.

[BigT]

@Starving_Artist

Would you guys please knock it off with the nuclear football/red button nonsense?

Trump has been in business for a long time and had who knows how many run-ins with opponents of all sorts, and yet there is no record I’m aware of where he’s ever assaulted anyone or threatened anyone or had the police called to settle a disturbance. He is nowhere near the loose cannon you think he is.

No, he just does it all verbally, which is the real fear. He won’t hit the button, but he will make an ass of himself to assert dominance. He will start the war by being an ass and not being able to negotiate.

Heck, I’m pretty sure the only reason the other Republicans haven’t used his narcissistic personality and inability not to lash out at people against him is that his followers would probably just agree with him. As you agreed, his followers don’t care about the content of what he says, just that he says it forcefully like a “leader.”

And besides, as was once said about why Russia wasn’t likely to start a nuclear war with the U.S.: “The Russians love their children too”.

I have no doubt Trump loves his kids (and grandkids) as much as anyone, not to mention his wife and his businesses and more of the populace than you probably think. The idea that as soon as some foreign leader pisses him off the missiles will start flying is nothing but hysteria based on ignorance. The same thing was claimed by the left when Ronald Reagan was running for the presidency. He was alleged to be a “shoot-from-the-hip” lunatic who made too many westerns and thinks he’s a real-life cowboy and that kind of nonsense, when in reality he was an astute and hard-nosed bargainer who drove Gorbachev to distraction and played a not insignificant role in bringing down the Berlin wall.

I very much do doubt it. Trump is not only a narcissist but a workaholic. I have seen no sign of basic empathy from the man. Everything is about him and how it affects him. So I don’t really think he’s capable of love.

That’s why I’ve been saying what I say about him. I genuinely think the guy lacks the basic humanity needed to govern. It’s a testament to how fucked up our business world is that someone like this man can thrive in it.

The guy is the antithesis of a decent human being, in pretty much all respects. Yes, he may have some liberal policy positions, but he’s the antithesis of a decent human being. There’s a reason why humility is valued, and Trump has none. That’s the sign of a horrible human being.

[Derleth]

@iiandyiiii

But I’ll believe that Trump has a serious chance to win when Nate Silver does, and not before.

Silver has a great track record, and he’s open about the fact he owes it to taking polls in general seriously, which extends to him comparing their predictions to the actual results and discounting or disregarding polling organizations which are consistently wrong.

In short, he’s good at what he does, but it isn’t magic, and a fair knowledge of mathematics, a statistics package such as R, and the raw data will enable you to do the same kind of things he does. (Not to his level, as he is an expert and you’re not, but my point is, this stuff can be learned, and even learning it at a basic level gives you a pretty powerful tool.)

So I’d make your statement a different way: I’ll believe Trump has a chance when other polls show the general population is moving his way on key issues, such as border walls and ground force commitment against ISIS. People who just support someone who’s Not The Other People in polls taken long before the election aren’t necessarily voters, and won’t necessarily vote for the people they say they support now even if they are.