Cold Reading at The Straight Dope?

Princhester responds to my earlier post:
"I think you are failing to see the wood for the trees. There is in fact a perfectly good theory as to how and why “psychic phenomena” behave as they do. And there are no indications that there is any difficulty at all with the question of experimental design.

The theory to which I refer is the theory that postulates that humans are fallible and that there are certain categories of belief that people often have despite those beliefs not having any objective foundation. This theory fits all the facts and is bourne out by experiment…

The phenomena may exist in the classic sense. Or the phenomena may be your perception that the phenomena exist.

I’m sure you’ve seen one of those little optical illusions in which two lines are drawn in a way that makes them appear to be converging, and yet if you measure their separation with a ruler, they are parallel.

One can form two theories about this. Firstly, that the lines are in fact converging: that the ruler is wrong, and what is needed is to develop “a new theoretical mechanism and an adequate and accurate experimental design” on the assumption that since the lines do converge, your current experimental design must perforce be wrong since it does not support your perceptions.

Or secondly that your perceptions are wrong.

I know which theory I’m going with."

One could easily make this argument about virtually any new field of experimental study…for example, in the early 20th century, physicists relying stringly on classic Newtonian models could (and did) certainly attack theories of particle behavior and relativity as being “outside the realm” of the experimental evidence. According to the classical view, certainly all of these particle physicists might merely be deluded and seeing only optical illusions, they claimed.

Let’s take a more recent example. Thirty years ago, most U.S. doctors dismissed acupuncture as outright quackery. According to classical Chinese medicine, acupuncture works by redirecting the unseen “life-force” or ch’i, in the body. Utilizing the type of American scientific arrogance that, in my opinion, borders on racism, the AMA and Western doctors said, in effect, “you people are idiots. Even though you claim to have been successfully using these medical treatments for 3000 years, we’re here to tell you that they don’t work and are quackery.” Why? Because we have no reference point in Western medicine to explain acupuncture. Therefore, 30 years ago, we simply dismissed it as quackery. We told the Chinese that they were mistaken; for 3000 years, in fact, they had been sadly mistaken. Now, a reasonably person might ask what would prompt Chinese doctors to practice medicine for thousands of years that didn’t work.

Thirty years later, acupuncture is hardly considered radical; it’s considered a adjunct to standard Western medical practice. Partly because some open-minded doctors stopped worrying about HOW it works and merely accepted the fact that it DOES work, many people have been relieved of serious, chronic and often painful conditions.

Dear Princhester, your argument succeeds on the grounds you have stated–i.e. that a more REASONABLE explanation fits the facts–only if you can tell me (with a straight face) that I am delusional, or that anyone else who has had a psychic experience is being fooled and is equally delusional. Naturally, we are not predisposed to accept this as a “reasonable” argument since we know very well that we are not delusional. For the same reason that Chinese doctors resented the fact that they were considered by Western doctors to have been delusional for thousands of years, those of us who have had personal experience with psychic phenomena find it equally appalling to be labeled as delusional fools. We might regret that you have not personally experienced such phenomena, and we recognize that those who have not experienced them can’t really understand the basis for our belifs. But on the face of it, your argument could just as easily be applied to you: in other words, you could also be missing the boat here–your (understandable) lack of experience is deluding you into believing that these phenomena do not exist.

I believe that the phenomena exist. I believe that they are (under certain conditions) reproducible. I believe that they represent a type of energy that is simply outside the bounds of our current models, but which is more closely related to quantum mechanics than to, say, the action of catecholamines or various neurotransmitters (I do have some background in neurophysiology and naturally, given my interests, I have spent many years considering physiological explanations). I simply believe that we need to exert more effort in developing a reasonable theory.

So, Princhester, to be fair I suppose I should also ask if you believe that doctors who practice acupuncture are also being fooled, since I used that as an analogy. If not, can you explain how it works?

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No one couldn’t because all the weird and wonderful advances in actual science can be experimentally proven, in a repeatable way.

You have accepted in earlier posts that psychic phenomena are not bourne out by reproducible objective testing.

The extent to which evidence based medical opinion accepts acupuncture co-incides with the extent to which it can provide repeatable objective evidence of benefit.

The extent to which acupuncturists make wild unproven claims co-incides with the extent to which evidence based medical thought regards it as a load of hooey.

Right. And when someone comes up with an example of a psychic phenomenon that DOES work under controlled conditions, I’ll consider myself relieved of my present serious chronic doubts about the existence of psychic phenomena.

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If you think that I did not have a straight face when I made my last post, you are very much mistaken. “Delusional” is a strong word, and I did not use it. “Delusional” suggests mental illness, which I certainly am not advocating as the cause of people perceiving that they have experienced psychic phenomena. I simply think that the human brain is an imperfect instrument, and there are certain well known circumstances in which we tend to perceive things that are not true. I think that to be a more likely explanation of people’s belief in psychic phenomena than that psychic phenomena exist in an objective sense.

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Just as I know that the lines in my optical illusion example are converging. Rulers be damned.

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Both of us belief in the existence of things that can be objectively proven to be true. Only one of us believes in things that cannot. Our positions are not equal and opposite.

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You should do it then. There’s a Nobel waiting. What are you sitting about for? Get on with it.

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Theory, schmeery. Stop worrying about HOW it works and get on with showing the fact that it DOES work, and then many people (including me) can be relieved of serious, chronic and often painful ignorance.

Not if their patients can be objectively proven to get better faster or more completely than those not treated with acupuncture.

When you can show likewise in relation to psychic phenomena, I will accept that you are not being fooled.

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Who cares? If it does, it does. You are now going to show the world psychic phenomena working. I’m waiting with baited breath.

The mind is a marvellous thing. We know for a fact that the placebo effect does have a small impact. If the mind believes that drinking a glass of water with red food coloring in it will cure the common cold, there is a small percentage of cases in which that will actually work. It doesn’t mean that water is a cure for runny noses, it means that there are physical symptoms that can (in a small percentage of cases) be relieved by mind-set.

This makes it very difficult to deal with something like acupuncture. Or psychics. All you need is a small percentage of success, and the proponents yell up and down about the narrow-minded establishment. In fact, the establishment is only narrow-minded in one way: the requirement of reproducible results under controlled conditions.

With psychics, it is very clear that people who want to believe find that a cold reading provides incredible successes. People who know how cold reading works know exactly how the process provides successes, and it has nothing to do with voices from beyond.

I suggest the following experiment: tape one of the shows of the TV psychics. Then play back the tape slowly, taking notes on exactly what the psychic says and to whom. Make a transcript. Then read Ian’s book (or even our short summary) and ask yourself whether the process of cold reading can explain almost everything that happened. (And remember TV editing – watch for cuts!)

I’d just like to say how much I admired Princhester’s most recent post, especially this kind of thing:

"The extent to which evidence based medical opinion accepts acupuncture co-incides with the extent to which it can provide repeatable objective evidence of benefit.

The extent to which acupuncturists make wild unproven claims co-incides with the extent to which evidence based medical thought regards it as a load of hooey."

A more succinct, fair, accurate, well-expressed summary based on familiarity with the subject matter would be hard to find. Okay, so Prin is obviously fighting far below his/her weight here, but even so posts like this are the reason I signed up to the Board in the first place.

BTW, Prin, I could be wrong but I think it’s ‘bated breath’ not ‘baited’. It’s from ‘abate’, not from ‘bait’ as in lure.

“Bated” is correct. Old-fashioned way of saying “holding one’s breath”.

And “believe” rather than “belief” would have been good. Thanks Ian.

I thought I should provide an example of the the type of optical illusions I am talking about just to show how powerful they are, and how hard it is to stop yourself from perceiving something that is not actually true.