So after Nebraska fled the Big 12 for the Big Ten+2 and Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe managed to prevent a nationwide conference meltdown by keeping Texas in the fold, we all figured it was only a matter of time before another shoe dropped.
Seems like that time has come. Texas A&M, peeved at the sweetheart deal TEXAS (ALL CAPS for their opinion of themselves) has arranged for themselves and themselves alone with ESPN, has called a regents meeting for Monday with an agenda item about conference realignment, and it is a very poorly kept secret that they will be jumping to the SEC.
So what are the other dominoes out there? Are we seeing the dawn of age the Super Conference? Or will the SEC stand pat at 13 (seems unlikely, so who makes 14)? Will the Big 12/TEXAS Conference nab Houston and plug along…or will OU and OSU look for greener fields, leaving TEXAS to life as a probable Independent?
It seems to me that if aTm does go to the SEC, Oklahoma would be the next logical choice. However I don’t see OU going anywhere that doesn’t involve Okie Light, so, that would mean the Pac-12 eventually.
The SEC would probably want the likes of either Clemson or Florida State as their 1st choice. The rumor around these parts is that Arkansas and LSU are pushing hard for Missouri to be that second team.
Personally (as a Mizzou fan) I’d rather join the B1G, but if joining the SEC is the only other option, short of the MWC, I’ll take it.
This is the beginning of the end for the Big XII. The other conferences are going to pick it apart once A&M leaves. The prize football program is OU, but the academics are a problem, which means that the PAC 12 and the Big Ten are likely not destinations, especially if it has to be a package deal with OSU. The PAC 12 was willing to take them if the big prize, Texas, was a part of the deal, but not without UT.
Assuming Texas is going to go independent with the Texas Longhorn Network, Missouri is the school with the best combo of academics and athletics left. I expect they end up in the Big Ten, which they would love. My guess is that the Big Ten would also take Kansas and their basketball program, as they are a member of the Association of American Universities (AAU) along with Missou. The AAU is a group of the top research Universities in the country, and all of the Big Ten are members (except Nebraska, which got kicked out this year) as are all of the PAC 12 sans WSU, ASU, and OSU. Colorado and Utah are members.
No comment on OK, OKSt, but FSU is denying any intention to move (which makes me think they might ). However, given the history of the thing*, if it happens, it probably won’t be fast.
*IIRC, we asked to join in the late 70s or early 80s and got turned down, then they asked us to join just prior to (or maybe slightly after) us switching to the ACC and we turned them down - because Weatherell (former President and major power broker) is a fucking asshole who consistently put his own feelings ahead of what was good for the school.
My gut feeling short-term is that 1) Texas won’t be an independent (who would they play in any sport except football?) and 2) Oklahoma isn’t going anywhere. Maybe that’s wishful thinking, I dunno. I’ve heard some rumors that if the Big XII does fracture, Texas and Notre Dame have had talks about putting together a new conference. If football was the only factor, then sure, the Longhorns would be happy to go independent. But it’s not.
I also think the SEC is making the first move towards the 16-team superconference, which means the B1G 16 and PAC 16 won’t be far behind. Unfortunately that will leave out a lot of folks, including my poor Iowa State Cyclones, who are just “pawns in game of life.” Right now the rest of the Big XII-3 has desperate hopes of adding someone like BYU to replace the Aggies.
I do think TAMU might regret this move when they get their tails whipped year in and year out by their newfound SEC friends. Will that be worth them ridding themselves of the hated Longhorns?
Long term view … this is bad for college football. If you end up with four 16-team superconferences, and everybody else on the outside looking in, what you’ll probably have is a 64-school football “supergroup” basically seceding from the NCAA and writing their own rules. And I find two spots to place blame: big conference commissioners (especially the PAC-12 and SEC) and Texas. When the SEC and PAC-10 started sniffing around the Big XII last year, that got all the conferences dreaming of the dollar signs they might get from Fox/ESPN/ABC with more teams. Then Texas essentially held the Big XII hostage … getting their very own TV network in the bargain … with dollar signs in their eyes as well.
In my view, it’s pretty sad. When you get right down to it, this is college kids playing a game. It’s not their fault the “grownups” have started making some serious wads of cash in connection with it.
ESPN is reporting that Texas A/M is seriously considering joining the SEC and there is speculation that Missouri, FSU and Clemson are also going to jump ship to the SEC.
The SEC would become CFB’s first “Super-Conference” of 16 teams if these rumors are true.
As a CFB fan, I like it. As a Georgia Tech fan, I hate it. If this happens it is going to force the hand of the ACC to merge with the Big East/ACC with West Virginia, UConn, Louisville, South Florida, Cincinnati, and Syracuse joining the 10 left in the ACC.
Big 12 is going to be reeling even though it still has Oklahoma and Texas as their centerpieces. UT and OU will continue be coveted by the PAC-12, and probably Ok ST will draft behind those two schools. Baylor, KU, KSU, Iowa St will be looking for a place to play. And they don’t have to many bargaining chips as they do not bring a lot of exposure.
I can’t believe the “superconference” idea would be good for college football. It would be great for the 64 schools who get into those conferences … it would royally suck for everyone else. What’s this mania to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs, just because you think you personally aren’t getting enough of those eggs? I think there’s plenty to go around, if the big conferences can conquer their greed and resist the urge to totally outflank and discard the NCAA.
This is not the beginning of the end of the Conference that used to be the Big 12. The Beginning happened when Nebraska jumped ship and later Colorado. It just took a couple of years for the other dominoes to fall.
This is great news for the SEC. It gives them a footprint into Texas, and opens a big door for recruiting in the state of Texas for SEC teams. I doubt if many blue chip Texas kids would consider going to the SEC when they knew that that school would never play a regular season game in Texas. But if LSU or Auburn, or Bama is going to play a game every two years in College Station, it may be an incentive to go to one of those schools.
Oh, I know. The Beebe/Texas bargain to hold the conference together with school paste and masking tape was never going to last very long.
Heck, I miss the days of the SWAC and the Big 8, so … call me a sentimental old softie. But guess who I think ended the SWAC? Texas. Who put huge fault lines in the Big XII from the beginning … moving the headquarters and the championship game from KC to Dallas? Splitting up the longtime Big 8 Nebraska/Oklahoma rivalry? Yep … Texas. And now who’s using their newfound network to ruin what’s left of the Big XII?
I always thought it was the SMU death penalty that brought down the SWAC. And yes UT has a big swelled head, just like Notre Dame.
I think it is inevitable that UT/OU/OkSt enters the Pac 10+2(+4). And somehow there is a merge between the ACC and Big East. And the Big 10 will be left scrambling for leftovers if they want to be the fourth superconference.
IMO, some of the teams in the Big East are in a great bargaining position. The Big 10 network wants to enter the eastern market. 2 yrs ago, there was lot Rutgers/Big Ten speculation. I am sure those rumors will be re-igniting soon. (maybe I just did).
Texas has been bullying the other schools in the BXII since the beginning. However the straw which broke the back is the proposed Longhorn Network (especially the showing of highschool games) . This isn’t to say that any other school would do the same if in Texas’ place. But Texas has consistentlybeen on the wrong side of the rest of conference.
This shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anyone. The writing has been on the wall for the last decade.
On another board I look at (for Miami), it’s been suggested that UM be proactive in trying to get a conference of national teams, starting with Miami, Texas, and ND. Don’t be held back by geography, because the money would be insane to get those three. If there’s any doubt about what Miami brings, check out the list of ESPN’s all time to ratings for cfb. Miami always draws well. Add in Oklahoma, Duke, UNC, Kansas, and maybe Maryland, and you’ve got a killer conference for both football and basketball. Others like VPI, UVA, Georgia Tech, and one more, and you’ve got a really nice conference, one that probably beats the SEC and Big10 for money deals.
The only conference ND will join will be the B1G, or it will stay independent. ND gets a majority of its players from Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. These players want to play games against schools from those areas. Missouri is able to get a significant portion of their recruits from Texas by picking players who have been passed over by UT and would like to play 2-3 “home” games a year near family.
ND would also mess up their traditional schedule by joining any conference besides the B1G. By joining the B1G, ND would play Michigan and Mich State as conference games allowing them to keep USC and Navy. Joining the “super-conference” at least two of these games would have to be replaced with some cupcake teams.
There’s more to it than football; A&M’s other men’s sports and especially their women’s sports are very, very good. Strangely, football seems to be the weak sister these days.
And really… A&M’s a pre-season top 10 team this year. Hardly “tails whipped year in and year out by their newfound SEC friends” material, unlike UT’s 5-7 season, which sets them up so well to go be independent.
Personally, I think that’s a big piece of it- UT probably wants to go independent after their network hits big and they’re back having winning seasons, and A&M’s forcing their hand now that A&M’s a top 10 program, and UT’s coming off their worst season in a decade.
The move to 16 team superconferences seems almost an afterthought at this point… but does anyone else see a problem with determining the champion of a 16 team league? Teams will play only half the league each year. You won’t see some other teams for 2 or 3 years at a time. Isn’t the point of a league to actually play everyone (or most everyone)?
I would guess that the SEC would really covet Virginia Tech. Great Football program with an SEC type following. And an entrance into the Virginia Market and natural rival with Tennessee as they are only a few hours apart.
). However, given the history of the thing*, if it happens, it probably won’t be fast.