Let me ask you: when it really comes down to it, is there that much of a difference between a bookie and a broker? I mean, with a bookie you bet on a horse, the bookie takes a cut off the top, and if the horse does as well as you thought it would, you get back more money than what you put it. But isn’t it the same thing with stocks? You give the money to your broker, he takes some off the top, and you hope the stock goes up. And the casinos, they always keep their eyes on you, making sure you don’t have an unfair[sup]1[/sup] advantage, while the SEC makes sure no one is trading with insider information. And sometimes, when you really screw up, they bring in the heavy hitters, right? Does that make the IRS kind of like the mafia?[sup]2,3[/sup]
And what does that mean for the habitual daytrader? Are there some folks sitting in a circle in some counselor’s office, with a guy named Jerry sobbing about shorting Microsoft while investing in Enron?
"...but, I've been clean for 6 weeks, 3 days and I'm really proud about myself for that."
Not that Jerry shouldn’t be proud of that. It can be really kind of thrilling riding on that roller coaster. You get out of it, and you want to run really quick from the exit back to the turnstile to go again. Ups and downs and loops and your stomach about 5 inches too high one moment, with you plastered into your seat a few seconds later. And people think of gambling as a similar thing. Yeah, it can look a bit scary at times, but things are going to get better, of course. Better for you, at least, because you have that edge.
You’ve got a system, or you have that intuition, or you can see details that others can’t. Yeah, there you are, surrounded by idiots, but you’re better than them. Who knows how they got where they are today. There are a few, a select few, who are like you, and they’re moving up in the world. And you’ll be moving up like them, too, right? Just as soon as you clear up a few little details.
But, you know what? There was a little survey done of workers in various positions. They were asked how competent their coworkers were, and asked about how good they were. When the numbers were in, here’s how they fell out: those who were judged incompetent by their coworkers had some of the highest opinions of themselves. Those who were judged to be the most talented, often had opinions that they were mediocre, and had criticisms of their own performance, and ideas how they could improve it.
It seems that those folks who are least competent at a given job, have the most difficulty recognizing those details that make people competent at that job. That’s why they’re incompetent. That’s why you’re incompetent, too. But don’t worry too much about it. Because everyone else is, too. I’m incompetent. The President is incompetent. Your fourth-grade PE coach was incompetent. The guy who fixes your car is incompetent. Your dog is incompetent, too. But you knew that last one, right?
That’s the theory espoused by Scott Adams, at least. He calls it the Dilbert Principle, named after his character Dilbert, the main character in the eponymous comic strip. And I haven’t seen much evidence to contradict him. I mean, sure, there are those up-and-comers. Those bright shining stars roaring into the heavens above. But are they really the exception to the rule? Or are they just better at hiding their incompetencies than most other folks?
[sup]1[/sup] I.e., have a better than 50% chance of keeping your money.
[sup]2[/sup] If my auditor is reading this, please note that I did not say that the IRS is actually like the mob. I merely drew a parallel between the two, and allowed the reader to reach their own conclusion.
[sup]3[/sup] If my loan shark is reading this, please note that I did not say that the IRS is actually like the mob. I merely drew a parallel between the two, and allowed the reader to reach their own conclusion.