Now, if Amber was smart, she’d ally with Rodger & Elisabeth. Here’s why: If current trends continue, the Final Four will be all ex-Ogakor. Amber would definitely be the next one out after the Kuchas, because Colby, Tina and Keith are obviously so tight with each other (and NOT with her; they left her out of the Jerri decision).
If Amber allies with Rodger and Elisabeth, they can vote for either Colby or Keith, depending on immunity, and beat any tie. Then they can whittle away the remaining ex-Ogakors and Amber can be assured of being in the final three, which is much better than only the final four. I’m sure I don’t need to explain why.
But on last night’s show we learned why this probably won’t happen, and just how much of a dim bulb Amber is. She told us that “I’m not sure I can trust the ex-Ogakors, but if I joined with the ex-Kuchas I don’t know if I could trust them either.”
Let me spell it out for you, Miss Sherlock: you can trust the ex-Kuchas because they have no choice but to be faithful to you in an alliance. Like Obi-Wan Kenobi, you’re they’re only hope. And they’re yours.
That is clearly the best strategy to get Amber into the final three. On the other hand, she has no chance of winning the big pot with that strategy. There’s no way Amber wins a final vote against either Rodger or Elisabeth.
By turning on Keith, Tina and Colby, she likely loses three votes right there. Plus all of the ex-Kucha are likely to vote for one of their own.
On the other hand, if Amber sticks with Keith, Tina and Colby, that guarantees her only a trip to the final four. BUT, she will be in a final four against people she stands a chance of beating in a final vote. She will have to get very lucky with immunities, but it’s only in the all-Ogakor scenario that she has a shot at winning it all.
Amber should just pack her up backback and head out of the outback. If there’s anyone who doesn’t deserve to win, it’s her. She’s done nothing except shadow after Jerri and now that Jerri’s gone, she’s still boring. She won’t go over to the Kucha side since that requires a little bit of intelligence to engineer a move. She’ll just coast along and do whatever the Colby/Keith/Tina alliance tells her to do.
BTW, how much crap can you fit in a small backpack? My guess is not much. If I were a contestant, I wouldn’t lug my stuff to tribal council each week. The only thing Keith has of any value is his paella pan. All he has to do take (wear) the things he really wants to keep and let the remaining survivors have the rest of of his stuff.
Say, what if Amber just keeps switching back and forth?
This week, she could join ex-Kucha to take out Colby. The next week, she could switch back to ex-Ogakor to take out Rodger. Then she could ally with Elisabeth to take out Keith. Then she could join Tina to take out Elisabeth. Barring an untimely immunity, that gets her to the final two. Only trouble is, she would have probably angered too many people to win the final vote.
Maybe not, though, if she makes an effort to be diplomatic about it: “I don’t want to hurt any feelings, but I have to protect myself, y’all.” As long as she doesn’t make any promises to anyone beyond the vote at hand, she won’t have to lie to anyone.
Right now, Amber has a very very easy decision to make. She is almost perfectly safe from the vote for the next 2 weeks, so she needs not worry about making or maintaining friendships. Ogakor doesn’t need her as much, but they still will want her assistance until Kucha is completely gone. Kucha will realize before next week’s episode that without her, they’re done for.
If Amber sticks with Ogakor and votes out Liz and Rodger, she will undoubtedly make it to the final four, and almost definitely be voted out then. She is definitely at the bottom of the Ogakor food chain.
If Amber sides with Liz and Rodger, she will most definitely make it to the final 3. Amber is tougher than Rodger and Liz combined, and should have no trouble winning the immunity challenge and choosing who to go up against in the final 2 (I’d pick Elisabeth. Rodger is far too likable, and I think most people have a sneaking suspicion that Liz is strategizing)
The jury provides the real dilemma. All ex-kucha would take Elisabeth or Rodger over any Ogakor. Also, if Amber joins with the Kuchas, she’ll probably lose Ogakor support too. I can’t think of any way she can side with Kucha and still leave herself in a winning position in the final two.
However, second place is better than 4th, so if I were Amber, I’d team up with Elisabeth and Rodger, eliminate Colby, Keith, and Tina in that order, boot Rodger, go up against Liz in the final 2, and walk away happy with $100,000. I think that’s the only logical choice.
Well put, for the most part, Ooner, and your “second place is better than fourth” argument is why I agree with you and think spoke- is wrong: there is no foreseeable scenario in which Amber wins this thing, so the best strategy for her is the one that leaves her at 2nd or 3rd, and that strategy is the alliance with ex-Kucha.
But, Ooner, I admit to puzzlement at this statement:
I too like Ooner’s analysis. My only real objection is that I don’t think Amber is anywhere near smart enough to pull it off. That girl’s light bulb is dim, dim, dim.
Here’s how I see it at the moment. Ogakor obviously has the upper hand here. If they want to, they can become the final four as a block. But who the hell wants to be in the final four? The trick is to make the final three, since that’s the magical number that gives you a shot at getting in front of the jury. Anybody with half a brain will want to ensure that they make it past the round of four, and they have to lay the groundwork for it now.
As I see it, nobody in Ogakor is assured of making it to the round of three if Ogakor is all they’ve got. Nobody will want to go against Colby in the immunity challenges or the final vote, so they’ve got to want him gone, but he’s also got an excellent chance of taking immunity when there are only four left. Amber’s totally alienated from the others, so she’s got to feel awful about her chances. Tina and Keith have been aligned out of the self-interest that goes with being in weak positions, but I don’t see any kind of bond that would prevent them from turning on each other.
So if you’re in Ogakor, you’ve got to solidify your position now. To me, that spells K-U-C-H-A. So Elisabeth and Rodger are in the driver’s seat, so to speak. Who do they want to ally with to get to the final four and beyond? Colby’s got to be right out because he’d kick butt in immunity, and he seems unlikely to ally with Kuchas anyway. Amber’s a decent pick, but she’s dumb as a post, probably physically stronger than Liz and Rodger anyway, and alienated enough from everyone that she’d be untrustworthy. That leaves Tina and Keith, who are both potentially weaker than E & R, and have the potential of being split up so that E & R get into the final three.
Okay, that’s a really long-winded way of saying that Colby’s gone next week, followed by Amber, and who knows what happens next.
And if I may brag on myself a little bit, last night was my third straight week of nailing my SDMB Survivor prediction.
Yeah, but the strategy outlined in my last post guaratees that Amber would get to the final two. Plus, the beauty of that plan is that it preserves Amber’s status as the swing vote each week. Meaning that people will have to ally with her each week or risk getting voted off themselves.
If she is smart, Amber is actually in the driver’s seat. (Well, at least in getting to the final two. And barring interference from immunities.)
However, like minty green, I have some doubts about whether she is capable of complex strategy.
Aside from spending a lot of time looking at myself naked in a mirror, here’s what I’d do:[ul]
[li]Next week: Go to Elisabeth and Roger and say “Let’s take out Colby.” They have to agree. Their other option is to allow themselves to get picked off by Ogakor. Colby is gone. (He loses any tiebreaker.)[/li][li]The following week, go to Tina and Keith and say “Let’s get Rodger.” Now, Tina and Keith are vulnerable and have to agree, or they risk getting picked off by Elisabeth/Rodger/Amber. Rodger is gone.[/li][li]The next week, go to Elisabeth and say, “Let’s get Keith.” Elisabeth is on her own and has no choice but to agree. Keith is gone. (He loses a tiebreaker.) That takes it down to Amber, Elisabeth and Tina.[/li][li]The next week, go to Tina and say “Let’s get Elisabeth.” Tina would jump at that idea, since she would rather face Amber than Elisabeth in the final vote.[/li][li]Result: Tina vs. Amber in final vote.[/ul][/li]
Anyway, that’s the way Amber would play it if she were smart. Like I said, though, I’m not sure she has the firepower to figure this out.
I can’t believe that no one has ever heard of catching the turtles by hand. You can reach up under the banks and grab them by their back legs or tail and they can’t bite you. Choose wisely though and make sure you got the rear end instead of the head end cause they could bite your finger off if you choose poorly.
Yes, I was talking about the host. He started out with 4 chips and a little bowl of salsa, then the chocolate and PB. I knew the food choices had to get better and bigger. Elisabeth and Tina teamed up later on and got the chicken, potatoes, bread and green beans, and then Rodger got the cheesebuger. Amber got…what, Mountain Dew, the river water (was it drinkable or was that a joke?) and candy or something…nothing of any real nutritional value.
As for Keith not taking his stuff…my sister bought a copy of that People Magazine Survivor issue, and it listed what they were allowed to take. It wasn’t much; something like 2 shirts, 2 pairs of shoes, 1 pair of shorts, 1 pair of long pants, a sweater and two hats.
I guess he left more back at the place they stayed (hotel or whatever) and figured the heck with the rest. I’m guessing here, but since Alicia and Jerri had clean clothes on, I assume they all took more stuff, along with the stuff they intended to take to the Outback.
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by spoke- *
[H]ere’s what I’d do [as Amber]:[ul]
[li]Next week: Go to Elisabeth and Roger and say “Let’s take out Colby.” They have to agree. Their other option is to allow themselves to get picked off by Ogakor. Colby is gone. (He loses any tiebreaker.)[/ul][/li][/quote]
True enough, but don’t forget that E & R have voting possibilities in Keith and Tina, too.
[quote]
[ul][li]The following week, go to Tina and Keith and say “Let’s get Rodger.” Now, Tina and Keith are vulnerable and have to agree, or they risk getting picked off by Elisabeth/Rodger/Amber. Rodger is gone.[/ul][/li][/quote]
But if they’re pissed at Amber, they could easily cast their votes with E & R to get Amber booted.
I think you see where I’m going with this. Amber-as-swing-vote works well, but only if she’s the crucial vote. With six people left, anyone who doesn’t have a dependable ally is in trouble. Sayonara, Colby and Amber.
I just had to say that the first half of this week episode was hilarious. Colby’s comment about having Keith teach him how to wrestle grasshoppers, followed by the auction and the resulting poop jokes - truly monumental TV.
There have been a lot of well-thought-out devious strategies layed out here that make a lot of sense, but I’m wondering if anyone left has enough brain power to think them up. I don’t mean that as an insult, but a comment on the food situation. I agree that there didn’t seem to be much strategy this week, and I can only assume that they’re just not mentally all there at the moment. It will be interesting to see what happens.
Maybe I’m wrong (and this might have been mentioned in another thread), but the whole CBS and Survivor thing has an endorsement deal with Reebok, right? Well I thought I noticed Colby wearing Nike sunglasses. If he is wearing Nikes, then I wonder how that’s going over with Reebok.
Also, it would’ve been a clever tie in for a Visa debit card or something (or whichever credit card company is sponsoring the show) used as the money, instead of Austrailian $.
I just wanted to add that I’m in love with Elisabeth. She’s dreamy. I hope she lasts til the end, or I won’t make it a point to watch the show, like I do now. I don’t see how any one could vote her off. I’d keep her around just for motivation!
Right now, I see Amber as the third most likely to win immunities, either mental or physical. Colby is still the strongest, and his previous toughest competition, Nick, is gone. Now Keith is number 2, and Amber isn’t far behind at 3.
Tina is a older and weaker, and even though she doesn’t show it, she’s fading fast. Rodger is a similar case. He has never been strong in the physical competitions, and he’s not too bright either. Elisabeth is most comparable to Amber, but she’s been weaker from the beginning, and is really weak with the lack of food. I don’t think a couple bags of rice will change that.
If Amber does team with Rodger and Elisabeth, Colby and Keith will go first, and she will therefore be the strongest.
Amber is in that position now, but it can’t be guaranteed unless she sticks with one group. If she starts playing back and forth between teams, they will not hesitate to eliminate her, then continue as they were before. She was close with Jerri, so she has already lost almost all support from Ogakor. If she jumps to Kucha, she has to jump for good, cause there is no going back. I think if next week, Amber were to get sneaky (as suggested) and vote with Kucha against Colby, then try to side with Ogakor against Rodger, the other 4 would not hesitate to boot her and turn it into an even game once again.
This would be suicide for Keith, as he has the most votes against him, but I think if it came down to it, he would make a temporary agreement with Kucha to prevent Amber from running the show. Also, he would be most likely to win immunity afterwards, very possibly getting a place in the final 2.
So, here’s a new analysis:
IF Amber sticks with Ogakor completely, THEN she will be booted at #4, Colby will win immunity, go against Tina (or maybe Keith… who’s disliked more?) and win the million.
IF Amber goes with Kucha completely, THEN she will make the final 3, win immunity, go against Liz, and lose.
IF Amber goes with Kucha to eliminate Colby, then tries to go back to Ogakor, she will be voted off. From there…
Keith could win immunity and make it to final 3, or be voted out.
In case #1, I think he and Tina would get rid of Elisabeth, as she is more a threat in physical immunity challenges. From there, it’s anyone’s game. It just depends on who wins the final immunity challenge, and who they choose to go up against.
In case #2, The final 3 are Liz, Rodger, and Tina. Liz would probably win the challenge, and have one hell of a dilemma about who to go up against. If she chose Tina, she would probably get votes from Rodger, Alicia, Nick (her former tribemates) and Jerri. That’s a win. However, Jerri might forgive Tina and side with her old tribe. That’s a Tina win.
If Elisabeth chose to go up against Rodger, she would split her own tribe’s votes, but she might also manage to get a couple Ogakors that wouldn’t have voted her way. In Liz vs. Rodger: It’s anyone’s guess. They’re both likable, neither have made any real enemies, and it could go either way.
In conclusion, I can’t believe I wrote all that crap. This is just a dumb TV show, and I must be the biggest dork in the universe.
Amber could be the key player in Colby’s strategy. The way things are going, Elisabeth and Rodger are the next two off. Amber is the most likely of the final four to get voted off first, which leaves Colby, Keith, and Tina as the last three. Colby has to realize that neither Keith or Tina wants to face him in the final vote, so they’ll vote him off and take their chances against each other.
The alternative is for Colby to wait until Elisabeth and Rodger are gone and then approach Amber. Realizing she’d be the next to go, she’ll be willing to listen. The two of them vote against Keith, who already is six votes down. Even if Keith and Tina see it coming, they won’t be able to outvote the other two. Then, with Tina and Amber unlikely to form a last minute alliance against Colby, he’s guaranteed a shot in the final two. He’d probably even be able to choose who his opponent will be in the final.
