Common Ground

(I’m not sure if there’s really a debate here; it’s more of a political musing. But since it’s politics, I figured GD was the place to put it.)

I don’t think many people around here would disagree with the notion that there is at least some common ground between the two parties. It may not be much, but there’s always some.

By ‘common ground’, I mean where both parties agree that X needs to be done, and (maybe) they even agree on how X should be done.

An example: providing prescription drug coverage for seniors on Medicare. Thanks to public pressure, both parties now agree that it needs doing; however, there’s a deep divide, still, on how such a benefit should be provided. So it’s in common ground as far as the ‘what’, but not the ‘how’.

My sense is that, absent a strong mandate for change, new Presidents do best when they begin with the part of their agenda that falls into the ‘common ground’ range. Once they’ve gained the trust of more of the public, they’re better positioned to bring up some of the more controversial aspects of their agenda. (Clinton never really recovered from starting off with gays in the military.)

What brought this to mind was reading the transcript of Bush’s speech last night, looking at the list of issues that he regarded as being part of that ‘common ground’:

Public schools, Social Security, Medicare, prescription drug coverage, a sound military, a bipartisan foreign policy - yup. These are widely shared goals. The level of agreement on how to achieve each goal varies from issue to issue, but people generally believe these are the things we want.

OTOH, the vast majority of Americans don’t feel we need a tax cut, and don’t expect to benefit from one. That one is merely a Republican concern, rather than an American concern. I don’t want to argue whether a tax cut is appropriate or not, here; I’m just stating that this can’t be characterized as a ‘common goal.’

Also, the statement, “Together we will address some of society’s deepest problems one person at a time,” takes one side of a fundamental philosophical divide between American liberalism and conservatism. Liberals tend to believe that society’s problems aren’t really solved one person at a time, unless one changes the environment in which those persons make the decisions that they make: absent some change in larger-scale forces, changes in the way individuals act is statistical ‘noise’ that, over large numbers of people, cancels out. Conservatives either don’t buy that logic, or don’t worry about it, because they don’t want to change society anyway: society, in their view, should be whatever happens as a result of everybody’s individual decisions. (OK, that’s libertarianism, but I’d argue - elsewhere - that libertarianism is the pure form of conservatism.)

I’ve couched that in language that raises a debate, I suppose, for which I apologize. My point is that, like with the tax cuts, this approach, right or wrong, is not an ‘American responsibility’; it’s something that in fact underlies the partisan divide in this country.

While on the whole, Dubya said the right words last night, I think characterizing positions and approaches on which there is deep partisan disagreement as common ground could get him into trouble, and I hope his brain trust has the sense to get him to back off. There’s plenty of stuff that the two parties can agree on, right now, and it would be good to actually get that stuff done first, and then try to sell us on tax cuts and one-person-at-a-time approaches to societal problems. If he wants to be ‘a uniter, not a divider’, then that’s what he’ll do. Here’s hoping.

Bush only needs to look at his two largest obstacles in his bid for the White House (McCain and the Florida ballot disputes) to find an issue that almost everbody agrees needs to be addressed: Campaign finance and electoral reform.

If you put a prominent enough politician, in front of sufficient news cameras with a large enough flag behind him/her then any speach they make (regardless of content) will sound as inspirational as the sermon on the mount.

It may be terribly cynical of me to suggest this but I don’t believe a word a politician says on any subject until he has successfully resolved the problem. Threats of solving problems simply don’t hold any water because most of the time the solutions are much more complex than they seem and the politician in question has likely given very little (if any) considerations to the compromises and deals he’ll have to make in order to solve these problems. Remember, if they were easy to solve then they would have been solved by now.

This speach, like many more to come is simply a ralley cry to motivate the troops and lull the general public into a false security about how things are not as bad as they seem or how dramatically they are going to improve now that the “right” person is in charge. Bush is not any more guilty of this kind of side show theatrics than Gore would have been in his place. I’m also not suggesting that Bush (or Gore, in an alternate universe) is completely naive about the job ahead. I’m merely suggesting that they can’t come out with an acceptance speach that is full of hand wringing and head shaking about how complex the problems they face are going to be regardless of shared interest in their resolution by both major parties.

The best and only way to judge this presidency will be four years from now at the next general election.

Ummm, QS, many problems are never solved; one just makes progress on them, or not. (Education is a good for-instance.)

So Clinton’s first term was a success, but his second term wasn’t?

I say, nonsense. We can set up standards in advance for judging whether someone’s doing a good job, and see how s/he does, by those standards, over time. This is true for pretty much any holder of any job.

While it’s true that the Presidency is more subject to unexpected tests of acumen than most jobs are, I’m thinking here: “I’m a liberal critic of Bush. Isn’t it fairer to post my expectations of a Bush presidency in advance, and judge him by those standards afterwards as best as I fairly can, than to simply jump in four years from now, and find grounds (which will inevitably be available, by the inherent fallibility of mankind) to say he stunk up the joint?”

If he does the things I say he ought to do, then I’ll be forced to admit, however grudgingly, that he didn’t do too bad.

I suppose I’ll weigh in on the tax-cut.

The way I see this, is kind of like how a normal tax-payer looks at exemptions they claim on their W-4. If you are regularly getting a pretty big tax-refund, it might be better to adjust your exeptions so that less taxes are withheld each paycheck. OTOH, if you are constantly paying extra taxes in April, you might want to adjust your exemptions up, so that you won’t have a huge tax bill come April.

If the government is continually getting surpluses, perhaps the government is taxing at too high of a rate. I don’t think the answer is to spend the surplus, except to perhaps paydown the national debt.

I’d also submit that it might be to early to gauge if the surplus is regular enough to warrant a huge tax cut. If we start hearing more roaring from the Recession monster, start hearing the fiscal conservatives start grumbling about cutting taxes. That being said, I think a tax cut should probably be low on the priority list, and more political clout might be mustered by ticking off the little things that need to be done.

My $.02

On the other hand, given that both major parties were promising some form of tax cutting, one could state that it was a common goal; it’s just a question of how much and to whom.

On the other hand, most Presidents do have a small ‘honeymoon’ period in which they gain a large amount of bipartisan support regardless of their mandate or lack thereof. So pushing the more ‘conservative’ programs first while they have a chance to succeed may be his best strategy for ever getting them implemented- should he focus his ‘honeymoon’ period on completely bipartisan matters, it won’t make it any easier for him to later bring up the issue of tax cuts and his version of social responsibility and justice. And given that he believes that those issues were part or most of what got him elected in the first place, one would expect him to make those issues a priority. Had Al Gore won by the slimmest of margins, would you truly expect him to put campaign finance reform on the back burner because it was too ‘partisan’ an issue?

True, Bush may not get much of a honeymoon at all, and the tax issue may blow up in his face. But on the other hand, he has a serious advantage over Clinton in this regard- he actually has a detailed plan on taxes. The Clinton Health Care program was largely an unfocused grouping of desires and wants, and the time it took to actually turn it into a bill meant that Clinton’s honeymoon period was months over by the time he got it to Congress.

I think we’re seriously overestimating the attention span of the general public. I don’t believe that either the closeness of this election, the lack of a mandate for Bush, or the extraordinary circumstances surrounding Florida are going to matter one whit to most Americans nine months from now. I don’t think the deadlock in Washington will be any greater in the next two years than it would normally be with a tightly contested Congress, and I don’t think Bush will have any less room to maneuver, in the long run, because of the way in which he was elected.

People have a tendency to forget about things that aren’t in the news every day. It’s my opinion that, with one caveat, the only ones still talking about the last month come summer will be political science professors and serious partisans. (The caveat is that the Democrats will likely make significant gains in the 2002 midterms, and retake control of Congress. Even this, though, will be due more to the normal losses an incumbent party experiences than to any lingering public memory about the Florida mess.)

Looking back on the Bush administration in fifty years, I think we’ll see the following things:

[ul]
[li]A repeal of the estate tax[/li][li]A reduction of the capital gains tax[/li][li]A partial privatization of Social Security[/li][li]Four new Supreme Court justices, replacing Rehnquist, O’Connor, Stevens, and Ginsburg–one of whom will be Latino, one of whom will be a woman, one of whom will be Chief Justice, and one of whom will turn out more liberal than expected (but not as liberal as Blackmun or even Souter)[/li][li]A failed school voucher initiative[/li][li]A relaxation of gun control laws[/li][li]Supreme Court decisions narrowing the scope of SOCAS and Roe, but eliminating neither[/li][li]The passage of a watered-down McCain-Feingold bill which bans soft money but raises hard money limits, thus effectively chasing its own tail in the name of progress[/li][li]Tightened bankruptcy laws[/li][li]Oil drilling in Alaskan wildlife preserves[/li][li]No Supreme Court decision regarding Vermont’s civil unions statute–SCOTUS will deny all cert. petititions to avoid ruling on the constitutionality of the Defense of Marriage Act[/li][/ul]

I’ll post more when I can think of them. It’s not hell on earth, obviously…but neither is it a world that I particularly want to live in.

Oh, well. I don’t know about the rest of you, but I’ll be blaming the Democrat who approved the Palm Beach ballots. :slight_smile:

Thoughts on the predictions, y’all?

Some common ground? Some??!

Considering that both of your presidential candidates were fundamentalist Christians who have spoken out against abortion rights, gun control, protecting HIV patients against discrimination, and gay rights; have records on the environment that are mediocre at best; are both supported by immense moneyed interests; support further loosening of trade regulations, NAFTA, and further spending on massive arms projects… I think that finding common ground between the Democratic and Republican Parties are the least of your worries!

Call me back when you’ve got some disagreement going on, mkay?

matt, you do, of course, have cites from the recent campaigns and the Democratic platform in which Al Gore spoke out against abortion rights and gun control. Right?

And I wouldn’t classify them as having the same position on the environment either…

I am not certain I agree with this. There is a lot less “honey” in GWB’s honeymoon than is perhaps customary. The narrow split in he house and senate and the serious Republican defection from Lott/DeLay leadership are just two of the factors which inhibit Bush’s conservative agenda. McCain has just joined Breaux and Snowe’s troublemaking bipartisan senate coalition, and according to The Hill, Dec. 13, he is expected to play an extremely active role. This is a serious slap to the Republican leadership, overrepresented by staunch conservatives.

If Bush wastes all of his honeymoon capital trying to pass conservative concerns in the face of enormous opposition, it will only paralyze the rest of his administration. If he can’t learn to work with these people now, he never will.