I have a friend who claims this is the baseball record least likely to be broken. His theory is that in the modern age complete games are rare, especially for pitchers whose teams are losing. He cites Cy Young as the holder of this record, but I’m unable to verify what is his total.
Does anyone know of a website where this statistic would be presented for all ML pitchers? Anyone have a candidate for a record less likely to be broken?
Ugh. I’d take a look at www.retrosheet.org but that’s pretty obscure.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Cy Young had it. The guy has more decisions than God.
Someone has to have figured this out before, but I have yet to find it. The list for leaders in complete games can be found here.
Odd’s are it’s Cy based on sheer volume, but Pud Galvin and Tim Keefe may have a shot at him. A guess based on results and records.
W L GS CG Svs TG StartRate DecRate CGRate
Cy 511 316 815 749 17 906 90% 91% 92%
Pud 364 310 689 646 2 705 98% 96% 94%
Tim 342 225 594 554 2 600 99% 95% 93%
After looking at that, I might actually guess Pud would hold the record. He would have had fewer chances for a relief related loss than Cy based on % of games started/games played(StartRate). It’s fairly likely that a larger portion of Cy’s losses came in relief appearances since he had so many of them. Almost every start that Tim and Pud had resulted in them getting a decision (DecRate). And they both had higher rates of finishing games (CGRate).
If losses fell fairly evenly, then losses * StartRate * CGRate is a somewhat educated shot in the dark at most complete game losses (short of combing through box scores.) Using that method, I get the following.
Theoretical most complete game losses
Cy Young - 261
Pud Galvin - 284
Tim Keefe - 208
There’s nothing unique about complete-game losses in this respect. Any endurance-related pitching record (innings pitched, decisions, wins, losses, complete games, games started, shutouts) will never be broken unless we see a reversal of trends that have lasted for more than 100 years.
I’ve never seen statistics on this, but I’d wager that a surprisingly high percentage of today’s small number of complete games occur in losses, because on the road you need pitch only eight innings for a CG loss.
I would suggest that the overall least likely record to be broken would be “Unassisted Triple Plays, Game” which a select few players have tied at 1. It’s happened 12 times in the period 1909-2003. The odds against it happening for the same player twice in a game must be astronomical.
If you just mean pitching records, I’m afraid I’m of no help.
Well I guarantee you that the record for Unassisted Triple Plays, Inning won’t be broken. Even the record for Double Plays (unassited or not), Inning isn’t going to bduge.
Along that same line but for pitching redords, many people might guess no one would ever strike out more than 3 batters in an inning, but quite a few pitchers have struck out 4 batters, with one reaching base on a droped third strike.
There’s a “hitting” stat that only been achieved by four hitters—being Hit By Pitch twice in the same inning.
This have happened to only [url=“MLB Hit by a Pitch Records | Baseball Almanac”]four players
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, and i think the odds of this record being broken and a batter being Hit By Pitch three times in an inning must also be huge.
Anyone know if those HPBs in the same inning were intentional/retaliatory?
No way to se sure, unless you were there, or have a report of the game.
But i think you can safely say that Brady Anderson’s first one wasn’t retaliatory, as it was in the first inning, and he was the lead-off batter. As for his second HBP, it’s possible. The Orioles scored 10 runs in that inning, and that’s enough to get any pitcher’s temper up.
Although it’s not even clear whether Anderson was hit by the same pitcher both times. The starter, Morgan, pitched only 0.2 innings, for 5 hits and 8 earned runs. He might already have been benched by the time Anderson came up for the second time.
There are rolling disputes between team sometimes, I know the league frowns on this but I believe baggage has been known to carry over multiple games in a series or after some major bench clearing brawl earlier in a season. So I wouldn’t rule that out automatically.
It’s obviously the “scoring the huge number of runs in one inning” part that makes this so unlikely. I just wonder whether something that’s happened as many as 50 times (all-time record to be sure) to the same player in a season is less likely mathematically 3 times in an inning than something that’s happened 12 times ever happening in the same game to the same player.
The Society for American Baseball Research Records Committee had a list of records that were considered unlikely to ever be broken. Some were because of rules changes, others because of strategy changes, and some just because they were so unusual that it was hard to imagine anyone doing better (such as hitting more than two grand slams in an inning)