We know why Dems won’t vote for her.
The black people voting for her would be Republicans and possibly conservative-leaning Dems. But I don’t think the majority of black people would. At least, not enough for Democrats to worry that much.
I have some ideas for why she wouldn’t be popular with Republicans either.
She’s black. No, Republican does not equal racist. But Republican does equal conservative, especially socially conservative. Many social conservatives are polite and not-so-polite racists, let’s face it. They may express their excitement for her in public, but behind closed doors feel uncomfortable about being represented by her.
She’s a woman. See above.
She’s not married. We’ve never had a single president before. A single adult doesn’t represent the banner of “family values” as well as a married one. The Republican party has recently exploited “family value” rhetoric and will feel pressure to keep it up.
Also, a strong, educated, business-suit-wearing woman will come across as a GIANT LESBO to a lot of dumb people, especially if she’s not hanging on a man’s arm all the time. These dumb people would have a big problem with a GIANT LESBO representing them. Better believe it.
(Actually, I see a higher proportion of Democratic women switching teams than black Democrats, if Condi were running. Especially self-proclaimed “strong” women. I can’t explain why.)
She has a Ph.D. and comes across as an intellectual. A lot of people like Dubya because he comes across as a “guy I’d like to have a beer with”. Condi comes across as…someone who’s class you’d like to take, if she was a professor and you were majoring in political science. More Americans like to sit back with a beer than listening to a college professor. Let’s face it.
She’s a talking head, not a politician. She has never run for office AFAIK. Her area of expertise is limited and her governing ability has never been tested.
She’s tainted by this war. It’s her face we remember from last year’s 911 hearings, not Bush’s. It will be Condi’s words that will be dissected if this country’s actions are investigated by the war crimes tribunal. Bush will be able to point his finger at Condi for giving him bad information; he will escape unscathed. Condi will not, not in the public eye, not when the dust settles.