Condos in Montreal

I have been living in Montreal since 2013, and previously lived here for four years in the late '80s/early '90s. For most of the last 20 years my wife and I lived in Ottawa and would visit Montreal once every month or so.

What we don’t understand is what developers are thinking. In any residential area we’ve been through, including our own, there is a huge plethora of for sale signs, including in front of recently completed condo buildings, yet condos keep being built.

So there appears to be a significant oversupply of real estate, including condos while more are being proposed. In Lachine, for example, there is “VillaNova” which according to the Montreal Gazette, “promoters are calling ‘a city within a city’ and the largest real-estate project on the island of Montreal.” This is “expected to increase Lachine’s population of about 42,000 by 25 per cent through the addition of almost 4,000 new housing units…”

20-some years ago I had friends who bought a brand new condo near Atwater market, and could only sell it at a massive loss (I seem to recall $40,000-ish) because as they were selling, new ones were being built.

Can someone, from Montreal or otherwise, please explain to me why developers are doing this? Does this make sense?

Thanks

The first thing to point out is that Montreal has gone through different economic growth than the rest of Canada since the 1970s as a direct result of the separation movement and the Quiet revolution.

From 1971 until 2006 Quebec – largely from the Montreal region – underwent a hefty exodus as noted here: CommunAction
As is frequently the case, the exodus is due in large part because of the loss of work. What is unusual in Quebec’s case is how companies left the province because of a combination of language regulation, separatist fervor, and not just because of high taxes or a collapse in a particular industry.
(Contrarians argue the opening of the St. Lawrence Seaway in 1959 is entirely responsible for Montreal’s decline, but I think that’s far-fetched.)
Essentially (and I’m simplifying here), head offices of companies decided to pull up stakes and move to Toronto, people went with them, and Montreal went from being the most populous city in the country to a distant #2.

Simply put, Montreal has been a very cheap place to live since the 1960s.

Montreal has gone through the standard changes that have happened in North America over the past four decades, as people got more access to education, the job situation improved, except housing became available in desirable areas as people moved away. Given the large amount of rental housing stock already available, and the available pre-owned properties in the suburbs, there simply wasn’t that much impetus to build new construction in the downtown area.

This stagnation ended about a decade ago, about the same time as the Great Recession introduced low interest rates world wide, and mortgages in Canada were allowed to go to 40 years for an eyeblink before being scaled back to 30 years, but it’s still been somewhat sluggish.

But those mortgage changes mean the availability of pre-owned housing is now gone in urban and near-urban Montreal. Prices have jumped, in many places doubling in the past decade.

Meanwhile, construction in Vancouver has been insanely intense, and Toronto’s not too far behind either. Prices in those two cities are now entering what the OECD diplomatically calls unaffordable levels for various reasons including money laundering.

So… developers in Montreal are hoping to cash in on that same increase in prices. Properties that they’ve been sitting on for years are being renovated and transformed from affordable apartments into high-end condos. Those with deep pockets are building towers in areas that haven’t seen construction cranes since the 1950s and 60s.

You also have the city of Montreal pushing to double the population of the city’s core in the next 30 years Montreal wants to double population of urban core | CTV News by transforming former hospitals into condo towers and the like.

I have no idea how much of this is legitimate demand, but I suspect that many of the condos being built are going to be used simply as a way to launder money, as is being done in Vancouver. It doesn’t help that Quebec has a massive number of ‘investment class’ immigrants that use the province as a springboard to move elsewhere in the province.

Barbarian, thanks for the response. I think, regarding the municipal govt’s aim to increase the population on the island is a pipe-dream and I think that the developers are deluded.

Based on personal observation alone (no real research or numbers) I just don’t see how it can work. My wife and I are perpetually boggled whenever we are running errands or going out; Lachine itself has experienced an explosion of condos immediately west of 32nd ave, many of which are for sale; many detached houses in Lachine are also for sale, all the while Villa Nova is being planned by developers.

Whoops. Final word in my previous post should be ‘country’ – not province.

Personally, I think developers are/were counting on two ideas: a new train line from downtown to the West Island, and the supposed desire of retirees to move into more urban areas.

Well, we know that the train line is going to run on a completely different route that anyone ever anticipated – which puts Lachine out of luck (although it is a gorgeous neighbourhood).