I’m not yet convinced that el donald is as bad as Hitler but, we may be able to draw some parallels. In the early 1930’s, Hitler’s base was large enough to get him elected. Eventually, things got bad enough that, according to Merkel, D-Day was seen as a rescue. West Germany is one of the few places where an invading army installed a democracy that survived.
That base, the Nazis, seems to be still around. There are enough of them that Germany sees the need to make them illegal. That makes it hard to see how big it really is.
Hitler consolidated his power and eliminated elections. We can’t really tell when public opinion turned against him. In those days, it was also unthinkable to question a war. For most of the period, he did not really need popular support. Fear was a good substitute.
If it gets bad enough that el donald loses a large chunk of his base we could see him removed from office. It needs to be so big that it is in the interest of those Republican senators. It’s not really clear how bad that will need to be. He will put up more resistance than he did with the Epstein files.
As expected (since it was Dem vs. Dem), a Democrat was elected to TX-18. That makes the House
Rep: 218
Dem: 214
Vacant: 3
That cuts the number of defections the Rs can have to one, since two would make for a tie, which is a loss in trying to pass legislation.
More interesting is a different result from Texas: a Democrat won a special election for the Texas Senate in a district that Trump won by 17 points. Trump posted about it several times, but that wasn’t enough to get out the R vote. Also, the Republican heavily outspent the Democrat. The weather likely had something to do with it, since turnout was way down from the primary back in November.
But this round, they’re overperforming by more than usual and in this race even more. The average for special elections is 13 points more than the 2024 election. Trump won this district by 17%; Rehmet, the Democrat, won by 14%. That’s about a 30 point flip!
The weather may have an effect (it’s a lot colder in Fort Worth now than it was last November), but the recent events in Minnesota probably had more. I understand the Ds won in the votes cast on election day (which usually go more R than D), not just the absentee votes.
The Democrats need to run fewer lawyers and more trades people. Of course, if the Republicans would run more cell phone executives, that might also help
A couple things about that special election for a Texas State Senator: the Texas legislature only meets in odd numbered years. And the seat is up for election this year. So Rehmet has to run for reelection almost immediately (the primary is March 3) and, barring a special session this year, he won’t be able to cast a vote in the legislature until he’s been elected twice!
OK, I doubt anyone is going to challenge him in the primary, but he still has to win in November.
It affects the turnout of low-propensity voters. Right now, those are mostly Republicans, for two reasons, one of which is temporary (Republicans are in control right now, and it’s usually the out-party that is unhappy about how things are going and more motivated to vote). The other may be more permanent, but it’s still not an iron law: well-educated people who are comfortably middle-class or above are much more likely to turn out, especially in situations like this one (special election, at an odd time of year, for a low-level office). Right now, that is a Democratic demographic, but it wasn’t that long ago that it was a fairly Republican one, and in some ways both parties haven’t completely caught up.
Another vacancy has been filled. This time in GA 14, Marjorie Taylor Greene’s old district. It’s a very red district, so no surprise the R candidate, Clayton Fuller, won by 55.9% to 44.1% (11.8 points) over Shawn Harris. However, in 2024, Greene won (against Harris) by 28.8 percentage points, making a 17 point swing towards the blue end of the spectrum.
The House is now
Rep: 219 (includes one Independent who caucuses with the Rs.)
Dem: 214
Vacant: 2
The next special election is on the 16th of this month to fill NJ 11. That vacancy was caused by Mikie Sherrill being elected Governor. Analilia Mejia (D) is favored to win that seat over Joe Hathaway (R).
Yesterday, two Congressmen (Gonzales and Swalwell) announced that they were going to resign. However, as far as I can tell, neither has actually resigned yet. But if they do before the next special election, the House will look like this:
Rep: 217 (includes one Independent who caucuses with the Rs.)
Dem: 213
Vacant: 4
ETA: Somehow I got the number of Republicans wrong in my last couple posts. I’ve just corrected it for this post.
ETA2: The by election to fill the NJ vacancy is today, so it’s not likely either of these guys is going to resign before that.
Damn it! I still have the numbers wrong. The two Congressmen (Swalwell and Gonzales) did resign yesterday. But I undercounted the Rs. Here are the right numbers:
Rep: 218 (includes one Independent who caucuses with the Rs.)
Dem: 213
Vacant: 4
Ballotpedia still has GA 14 listed as vacant. I’m going to guess that that election, which happened only a week ago, hasn’t been certified yet.
Here’s the schedule of upcoming special elections:
NJ 11 – general: April 16 (tomorrow) [D favored]
CA 1 – primary: Jun 2; general: Aug 4 [R favored]
CA 14 – primary: Jun 16; general: Aug 18 [D favored]
TX 23 – date not set yet. [district is R+7, so a flip is possible]
In NJ 11, the Democrat crushed it, probably greater than 65% of the vote. Note, this candidate is much (much!) further left than Mikie Sherrill, and is a minority woman, and still may pull in a higher percentage than Sherrill was able to accomplish. (Mejia is running for Sherrill’s old seat before Sherrill became governor)
It’s a special election, so GOTV efforts matter a ton, but still, this makes me hopeful for a blue wave in the fall.
I fully expect a blue tsunami in November. All signs point to it, but exactly how big will depend on what evil things the Trump Admin does in the runup. As an extreme, if ICE/BCP shoots another US citizen in Sept or Oct, it’d be the biggest wave ever, as in maybe 10 or more Senate seats changing parties. Even without that, I expect the Ds to pick up 5 or 6 Senate seats.
