There’s an interesting project discussed here where a researcher did some work to estimate the “lived density” of various countries in Europe - ie, how dense an environment do the actual people who live in that country, live in.
He puts the lived density of Iceland at around about France, and a fair bit less than Italy.
It’s an interesting list, because ‘lived density’ does seem to match up slightly better to bad corona outbreaks than traditional country-level density - mostly because of Spain and Andorra, who are quite high up on that list, but low on country-level density
The coronavirus may have in fact actually result in a net gain of over 70,000 lives saved in China?
Hmm, why am I thinking this is a far more accurate interpretation of that headline, Study: Lockdown Likely Saved 77,000 Lives In China Just By Reducing Pollution
than this Study: Coronavirus Likely Saved 77,000 Lives In China Just By Reducing Pollution
is?
They may be highly urbanized in one sense but their largest city barely rates as a large town in many other places and the density of that one city is nowhere near the density of many genuinely large cities.
So yes, disease is going to spread better in Reykjavik than anywhere else in Iceland, but because it’s absolute density is orders of magnitude smaller not as badly as someplace like New York City or London or Mexico City or Mumbai or a bunch of other places that in every way are MORE populous and MORE dense than Reyjavik.
I live in a genuine small town in fracking Indiana and our population density is nearly four times that of Reykjavik! Sure, in absolute terms we have fewer people but we pack 'em in four times tighter. Chicago packs in twenty five times as many people by unit of area than Reykjavik does. Then densest city in the world, Dhaka, Bangladesh, has one hundred times as many people per unit of area than Reykjavik.
That is what you don’t seem to grasp - what is, in Iceland, “densely populated” is not that by the standards of other people.
Sorry for your confusion but … no. Iceland as a country has very low population density. But most live in the Capital Region and some in Reykjavik itself!!! And that metropolitan region is less dense than most tiny town. NO ONE in Iceland lives in an actual dense urban environment. If “city” is defined by population density then no one there lives in a city. Most live in one region with the density of a sparsely populated country town. Reykjavik’s population density, that’s THE CITY is about 40% less than the typical American suburb, and the Capital Region about 70% less dense. What is a “city region” in Iceland is an exurb in the United States. This is low population density experience that very much affects how epidemic diseases behaves or impact the population.
Yes, if two-thirds of the US lived in an conurbation with the density of Huntsville, I would refer to it as extremely “low density”. Instead about a quarter live in cities of urban density like Chicago, about half in suburbs (with much more density than Reykjavik) and even the 20% who live in rural America are often clustered together closer than those in the Capital Region are.
Taiwan had its first new case in two weeks, but it was somebody who had become infected overseas and had returned. The person was showing symptoms prior to coming home so they were immediately quarantined in the quarantine center upon their return. It’s still been a month and a half or so since the last domestic transmission.
[ul]
[li] Tomorrow Hungary will be opening its border with Austria, albeit only for those travellers who are in possession of negative coronavirus test results no older than four days.[/li][li] Vienna’s famous amusement park at Prater will re-open on 29 May.[/li][li] Current statistics: 16,335 confirmed infections, 633 deaths, 14,951 recovered.[/li][/ul]
Looking at the current trend for US from 1st May up to 22nd May so far has resulted in 31k deaths, that figure will very likely be around 40k by month’s end.
It’s only when you consider the new infections that you see things are looking to b difficult for some time to come.
Most of those deaths will be from infections from 3 weeks or more in the past, yet the rate of infections had only declined slightly.
We have folk thinking that the curve has flattened, but all that means is that the rate has stabilised and infections are now continuing at a steadier rate.
That surely has to mean that deaths will follow a similar trend - perhaps it will fall a little as care and medical interventions improve but it seems to say to me that US can expect deaths in the range of 500 to 1000 per day for more than three weeks.
All this is with one caveat, and its a big one, the effects of states reducing the stringency of their control measures. I do not hold out much hope due to the oncoming Presidential election - if anything I think there will be much more pressure to unlock further and to either massage figures as has been alleged in some states or to simply spin the deaths away somehow.
At the moment I’d now be expecting deaths to get near to 140k with current rate of growth given the current level of infections in the Covid pipeline, but if the rate of infection continues with the very slow decline that number could be higher - and that’s not considering a further wave of infections.
“The Five Ones” = 1 airline can fly to 1 country, 1 time, 1 route, each 1 week.
This appears to be happening because other countries cannot get their act together and stop spreading the virus. My summer vacation is supposed to start July 19 and I really would like to be able to fly out of China and, of course, return at the end of the school break. And I would like even more for the wife to be able to come back. Get it together, people, and stop doing stupid stuff!
If you check the first link, you’ll see a number of procedures for the meetings. I’m finding it interesting in a kind of morbid (I guess) way. Our branch presidency here in Beijing was contacted by the police station for the area where we meet to begin the process for us to return to the chapel. As it turns out, there are two foreigner branches sharing the chapel in the morning and one Chinese branch using the chapel in the afternoon. I’m wondering what changes to the meeting schedule will occur to comply with both the government regulations and the Church’s directions. I’ll report here as it pans out.
Oh, I forgot to mention that right now is The Two Sessions. Oh, joy! Usually that’s in March, but good ol’ COVID-19 caused a couple of delays and it’s happening now.
Realistically, I think this is best possible outcome we can expect in America. It’s clear that many Americans aren’t willing to make great sacrifices for the pandemic. They’re not even willing to make moderate sacrifices, such as wearing masks and not going to crowded bars. If we can get to a state where the infections are at a constant level and the medical systems aren’t overwhelmed, that’s likely the best possible scenario that could be achieved. Trying to lower the rate significantly by enforcing more restrictions will likely have major push back and lead to more civil unrest.
Do the different names for this virus have any particular differences of meaning? Do COVID-19, Novel Coronavirus, and SARS-COV-2 mean different things?
[ul]
[li] A survey on attitudes towards vaccination revealed that 62% of Austrians would like to be vaccinated against coronavirus if/when such a vaccine becomes available. (This number is actually much higher than that reported in previous surveys on the desire to be vaccinated against influenza.) The same survey showed that 25% would not want to take a coronavirus vaccine.[/li][li] It’s been one week since restaurants were permitted to reopen, and already many of them are closing again due to a lack of customers. Particularly hard-hit are restaurants in downtown Vienna, which depend much more on tourists than locals.[/li][li] A group of 30 people blocked an Austria–Slovakia border crossing to protest Slovakia’s quarantine rules for incoming travellers. The protesters succeeded in backing up traffic for a kilometre, preventing thousands of travellers from crossing the border.[/li][li] Current statistics: 16,388 confirmed infections, 635 deaths, 15,005 recovered. Vienna has gone 12 days without any coronavirus deaths.[/li][/ul]
To expand on this, “novel” is a term of art in scientific research writing that means something a little more specific than just temporally “new”, it means something more like “not previously described in the literature”.
