This strongly supports an impression I’ve been getting from various reports. That is, most infected people do not spread the virus at all, not even to people they are in very close contact with, but a small subset spread it like crazy. If we could just figure out why and how that happens, or even just be able to identify these superspreaders before they infect dozens of people, we’d be way ahead of this epidemic.
Because in a breaking news thread a link to an updated story is enough? Not everyone needs their every post to be a multi-paragraph tirade against the “CCP.” We get it already-- you don’t like China.
So, if I post a breaking news story that is obviously bullshit or at least suspect, I won’t be questioned on it or whether I actually believe the bullshit because it’s breaking? Good to know! Thanks for letting me know that as it might be good for future use.
This isn’t about my dislike of the CCP. I don’t dislike China btw, unless you are saying what the CCP thinks, which is that China is the CCP and vice versa. But regardless, if you are going to post a breaking news article in a drive by I think asking whether the poster themselves believe it when there is more than a bit of doubt about both the number (10 million checked) and the results (almost zero found) is being asserted. YMMV of course, and if we aren’t questioning this stuff then that’s fine. I’m sure you will show the same leniency when someone posts breaking news that is bullshit as well.
Let’s drop the personal remarks and snark directed at other posters, and don’t impute motives to them. No warnings issued, but if you have a beef with another poster take it to the Pit.
If that were the case, then reports where infected people, usually in lockdown situations, did not transmit the virus to people in their own household should be very rare. They’re in the same house for days, breathing each other’s exhalations, the other people should not be able to avoid contracting it. Yet I’ve seen way too many such reports. And here we have about 300 of them.
I’ll admit that this is just an impression on my part, based on news reports. Hardly a scientific result. But hypotheses based on weaker support have been investigated in the past and turned up true. It’s something that should be investigated.
[ul]
[li] A study from the Medical University of Vienna has revealed that Austrians working from home office during the lockdown have gained an average of two kilograms.[/li][li] With the lifting of travel restrictions from all neighbouring countries except Italy, Austria is dismissing 600 soldiers, nearly half of the 1400 that were called up to secure the borders during the pandemic. All neighbouring countries except the Czech Republic have likewise opened their borders to travel from Austria. The Czech Republic was due to open their side of the border on 15 June, but today they announced that the border would instead open tomorrow, on 5 June.[/li][li] The government of Vienna has announced an interesting stimulus plan involving 16- to 30-year-old consumers: all 360,000 of them resident in Vienna will receive a €25 coupon which can be redeemed at businesses in their local district.[/li][li] Current statistics: 16,805 confirmed infections, 670 deaths, 15,717 recovered.[/li][/ul]
These remaining 9 patients seem to have been taking a long time to be released from the hospital - quite a few weeks? I wonder how long the typical hospitalization stay for Covid is.
Aye; that pretty much sums it up: it’s a breaking news thread, not a debate thread or an IMHO thread or a rant. I’ve been posting links and snippets of COVID-19 news daily in it now for almost 4 months.
This (non-paywalled) article is very scary and depressing. When ever I think about going out mask-less in the next few weeks/months, I think about these people.
This guy is an infectious disease specialist!
There is a boatload of stuff that we still don’t know about COVID. The trouble is, what you don’t know can kill you… or maybe you will just wish it had.
…NZ currently only has one active caseand they have been active for a while. We get the stats daily and people are jokingly demanding that this person “gets better” so that our stats look better Will see if they drop off the board today.
My uncle has it — classic symptoms, then a positive test. His wife, my aunt, had been quarantined with him for weeks — before, during, and after his symptomatic phase — and she has tested NEGATIVE, twice. (She had a brief episode of one or two mild symptoms, almost surely just a regular cold).
So, while we don’t know everything yet, I believe this evidence that there is a wide range of contagiousness among individuals — from “super spreaders,” to my uncje, to everything in between.
Answer: Tests on an individual are not statistically independent events, but not because some persons are more susceptible to false negatives than others. Rather, it’s correlated with WHEN during the course of an illness the person is tested.
On average, anyone is least susceptible to a false negative on Day 8 of their infection (typically about three days after they show symptoms). The likelihood of a false negative increases from then on.
If she was infected, I estimate my aunt was tested about two weeks later — when the false negative rate is about 50%! This, a second test also being negative doesn’t mean much.
Will see if they drop off the board today.