You are pretty good with these numbers Bo. How long do you figure that it’s going to take to get to 120k in the US?
6-7 days
I’m sure that has nothing to do with it. First of all, I have never heard that mosquitoes or any other insect spreads this virus. And it’s unlikely to be the case, since the virus is mainly in the respiratory tract instead of the blood, and it would need to survive inside the insect and be passed from its digestive tract into its salivary glands to be transmitted. Only a few specialized viruses can be transmitted by insects.
Second, Panama has been very aggressive about measure to control mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases since Canal construction days, including spraying and getting rid of standing water where they breed. We have had occasional outbreaks of dengue fever and renewed campaigns against breeding sites but I haven’t heard of a significant problem for years. Personally, I have only seen one or two mosquitoes in my neighborhood in Panama City in 28 years here. In my experience, mosquitoes are only common in mangroves and certain other wetlands. Malaria is rare and restricted to certain remote areas, and AFAIK it’s been decades since the last case of yellow fever in humans.
So, not that different than, say, my small city in Wisconsin. Here, too, careful behavior (social distancing and mask use) is positively correlated with income level (as well as with age).
Some of this can be excused as “well, the rich can AFFORD to behave in ways that constrain the practical actions one does to earn a living,” but I’m pretty sure it’s not just that, because it extends to things like food shopping and relaxed gatherings. I need to be careful about avoiding “blaming the poor” — maybe in part I’m conflating income with “working class” (i.e., somewhat less likely to follow guidelines, for political reasons) — as a recent 538 podcast made clear, a plumber who owns his own business is “working class,” but an assistant professor with a much smaller income is not…
Okay, off tangent. Carry on.
I think it’s cultural. Upper-middle-class people, in general, have a really strong “safety culture.” Part of it, like you pointed out, is that they’re living a life where they can afford to avoid risks (it’s easier to get regular medical checkups if you have health insurance, for example), but it also spills over into things like attitudes about how important it is to wear a seatbelt, which should be equally easy for everyone. My guess is that if your life experiences have taught you that you can reliably avoid most risks, you probably think it’s worth a fair amount of discomfort and inconvenience to try, whereas if you’re living in a world where bad stuff happens all the time in spite of people’s best efforts to avoid it, you might have more of a “why bother?” attitude.
Poor people frequenty suffer from either the super positivity of the ultra religious (“I’m covered in the blood of Jesus, so I ain’t studying no corona”) or the super fatalism of the weary and depressed (“We all gotta die of something. If it’s not the corona, it’ll be something else.”)
Sounds about right. Of course we’re all making generalizations, and there is surely data out there to be cited on these matters, but these observations sound plausible.
In my neighborhood, it actually varied by supermarket. I usually go to the Riba Smith near my apartment, which is kind of the “quality” chain, and has lots of US products that the other chains don’t carry. (I often see my gringo friends who live in entirely different neighborhoods there for this reason.) The next closest supermarket is an El Rey, which is the largest chain in Panama, which everyone goes to.
The Riba Smith instituted temperature checks, hand sanitizer, antiseptic mats at the entry, and a mask requirements well before the Rey did. However, they are also much more crowded (although this is partly because they are in the middle of a residential neighborhood, while the local Rey is in banking district with few houses or apartment buildings around), and it can take up to a half hour standing in line to get in. So I end up going to the Rey when I just need a few things, since I can be in and out of there in a hurry. I go to the Riba Smith when I’m out of things that I can’t find at the Rey.
Interesting. Yes, for shopping and such, you can think in terms of three categories: 1. stores that are imposing strict rules, 2. stores that aren’t but most of their customers take strict precautions anyway, and 3. stores that don’t impose strict rules and neither do most clients practice them.
(This doesn’t take into account legal — i.e., government-imposed — rules. It assumes that a place has “opened up” enough that stores in categories 2 and 3 aren’t breaking the law).
Not really breaking news but:
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=Pharmacy
Google is saying that about 161m Americans are on a prescription at any given moment.
From the usage of “pharmacy” as a search term, I would estimate that 12% of Internet users have disappeared from the Internet or stopped their prescription (about 19.3 million people).
That number is much too high to be Corona deaths, so I would take it that a lot of people have decided to stop getting their illnesses investigated and treated. That seems like it will have some ramifications at some point down the road.
For anyone who can read Spanish, here’s another interview today with Jorge Motta, former director of the Gorgas Memorial Laboratory in Panama and one of the most prestigious medical professionals in the country. He points out that the recent increase in cases had to be due to an increase in infections while we were still in stringent lockdown. He attributes the lack of progress to insufficient testing, lack of identification of asymptomatic cases, and lack of aggressive contact tracing and control in clusters of infections.
At this point I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Ministry of Health here.
Or people are getting their meds by mail now instead of at the local CVS or whatever. I am. Also pharmacies stock a lot of things besides prescription drugs. Also people may be limiting going to pharmacies because of fear of encountering people with covid symptoms.
All these. Also, most people know their local pharmacy and don’t need to google it. They need to find a pharmacy when they are traveling in an unfamiliar location. No traveling means no need to google.
What you might need to google are the hours the pharmacy is open–because a lot of stores have been changing their hours due to Covid-19.
Although the conclusion seems valid, for the other reasons given, the premise of the linked article may not be true: there is an argument that COVID-19 is a blood disease:
coronavirus may be a blood vessel disease which explains everything
Nitpick. Blood vessels aren’t blood. They are just the tubes that carry it. But clearly some virus would be carried in the blood in order to infect the vessel lining cells. But it doesn’t infect cells in the blood. So it isn’t a disease of the blood.
As noted, in order for an insect to be a vector for infection the virus would need to survive in the insect. That is a tall order.
I’d call the pharmacy for that. I’ve seen plenty of outdated hours still up on the net (not just recently; a chronic problem with outdated internet info.)
7,200,059 total cases
408,737 dead
3,536,721 recovered
In the US:
2,026,493 total cases
113,055 dead
773,480 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
Yesterday in Austria:
[ul]
[li] The George Floyd protests have reached a global scale, and Austria is no exception. Last Thursday 50,000 demonstrators marched in Vienna, and the following day saw another 9,000. As a result, on Monday the health minister reintroduced the requirement for people to wear face coverings at demos, though this applies only where it is not possible for participants to maintain a distance of one metre from one another.[/li][li] The government approved a €650 million rescue package for Austrian Airlines, which had been hit hard by the coronavirus crisis. €450 million of the money will come from the Austrian government, and €150 million from the airline’s German owner, Lufthansa. As part of the rescue deal, the airline had to commit to reducing its noise and air pollution. Lufthansa also had to commit to maintaining Vienna as a hub and expanding it in line with the German hubs of Frankfurt and Munich.[/li][li] Due to the pandemic, the government has received €2.3 billion fewer in taxes than expected.[/li][li] The state of Vorarlberg is now offering coronavirus tests to anyone who wants one, at a cost of €115 for active infection tests and €20 for antibody tests. Of course, residents who have come into contact with people known to be infected can still get an infection test for free.[/li][li] Current statistics: 16,968 confirmed infections, 672 deaths, 15,839 recovered.[/li][/ul]
COVID spread by people with no symptoms ‘appears to be rare,’ WHO official says.
So maybe that explains why so much spread is by “super spreaders.” When normal people get symptoms and they stay home. Super spreaders (aka "idiots) go out anyway and cough all over everyone.
This sounds huge to me. This means if we are aggressive with weeding out those with symptoms, then opening things up should be more achievable.
Also, who knew zoos had noses? You learn something new every day.