Here’s a story about confidence within your country. The propensity toward hysteria there is leaving people more frightened, in a place with next to zero virus activity, on a relative scale, cumulatively since this began, than even people in the places that have been hardest hit.
“We’ve been briefed on a project that is usually a large trade show and a multi-day event, clearly they don’t feel confident enough by mid October to be able to get 600 people to gather in a room.”
What was gained by your lockdown in March/April if you can’t have even that event in October? Your country has invested incredibly heavily in its approach yet can’t seem to collect the benefits.
Because I’m Papa Bear of the Sacred Order of the Banquet Bears. Because I spent 15 years working in the conference and events industry here in NZ. I managed the State Dinner for HM the Queen in 2002. I’ve worked at the Sky City Conference Centre, Te Papa, the Wellington Convention Centre, I’ve served royalty and Prime Ministers and celebrities, and worked at more hotels than you can count on my hands. I’ve done everything from wash pots to coordinating events to the value of 4 millions dollars a year. When I started my own business in 2012 the first market segment I targeted was the Conference market because I knew the market so well.
So congratulations on googling an industry that I probably have more knowledge about than anyone else here on the boards. As soon as Covid hit the very first thing I did was pivot my business away from the conference sector. It was obvious what was going to happen. I talk to people every day in this industry. I’ve worked for and with some of the people quoted in the article. Do you think you know more about what is going on in in the conference sector than I do?
Like everywhere else the conference industry is just going to have to adapt. And they are and I know that they are because I see what they are doing, because I’ve filmed promotional pieces for venues that have flipped the services they are offering, because my bookings (all previously canceled) have started to pick up. Its a global pandemic. The entire conference industry all over the world has been hit by this. And nobody knows that better than me.
You are acting as if the GOP and the Democratic Conventions didn’t just happen online only, that every single major convention hasn’t gone online, that this hasn’t had a major impact on the conference industry globally. You are acting as if we had widespread community spread here in NZ that would mean that the conference in question would have gone ahead regardless when we all know that wouldn’t have happened.
We’ve only had 22 deaths. So far nobody has died during the latest outbreak. Our economy is doing better than most other comparable countries. The schools are open, I can go to the movies, I can go and meet my friends at a cafe and have a coffee, the nations excess mortality rate is down, and the only reason Sweden is lower on the stringency index is because we are currently in Level 2.5 but we are on track to drop back down to Level 1 very soon.
We’ve collected the benefits in lives saved. There is no “propensity toward hysteria” here. We don’t have near “zero virus activity” because of magical thinking. We have near “zero virus activity” because that’s the better bet for the people of Aotearoa, its the better bet for the economy, its the better bet for us to have the freedom to be out and about and to do our own thing. We all know what we have to do to keep it that way, and most of us overwhelmingly approve the strategy, even though we know not every business is going to make it. Because if we don’t keep Covid out then even more businesses will fail. We will end up looking like the rest of the world. And with all due respect that isn’t looking too great at the moment. The Resurgence Strategy was an overwhelming success. Lockdown for 24 days then almost back to normal. Compare that to countries that are still lockdown harder than we are and will remain that way probably for at least another year, maybe longer. Why would we want to give up what we have?
And why do we have to have this very same conversation every time I post an update?
I have to admit I was hopeful for an moment when I saw that headline. Then I instantly remembered how politicized the CDC has become, with articles written by former officials like this one, a Nobel laureate and former head of the NIH:
I am very happy that this flare seems to have been contained, as it looked like it would be, and very much hope that all future ones can also be similarly contained, that New Zealand can keep it up for however long it takes, which is a complete unknown. On the US side Vermont is a somewhat similar circumstance and I hope the same for them. They seem to be pulling it off so far.
Can I just ask for some links to back up that the New Zealand economy is, for now at least, doing better than most comparable countries? I suspect you are correct but I’m not finding good comparison numbers myself so easily.
I’ve been doing these things since late May. Chain theaters started opening a few weeks ago. Locally owned theaters opened in June. My state daily death average attributed to Covid has been single digits all along. The numbers for the state are about the same as a mid sized city daily newspaper obituary page. Rural and smaller city kids are in school full time. Colleges are giving it a shot. Life except for statewide mask mandate is very close to last year. Travel industry and large gatherings are hit and miss because of attendance and corporate caution, not by mandate.
New Zealand was Covid-free for over 100 days. We haven’t had a Covid-death since May. We raised our alert levels with the mystery resurgence about a month ago which has limited event sizes in our biggest city: but these are likely to be removed once we drop back down the alert levels soon.
…“pretty average” is pretty fucking good considering the fact the world is in the middle of a global pandemic. Income falling dramatically obviously hasn’t happened here before. Because we are in the middle of a pandemic.
And the comparison graph that I think you are looking at doesn’t include the New Zealand Q2 numbers, which from searching looks like they will be released mid-September. Q1 was measured month-end March, so the table doesn’t actually tell us anything about post-lockdown GDP for NZ.
I’m pretty sure there probably is, and you are welcome, if you wish, to take the time seek them out.
Below the graph there is a “Countries” menu. Click and under “Background” select “All.” Note that New Zealand’s Q2 numbers aren’t displayed yet (as of Sept 3, 2020), so the -1.59% isn’t accurate - that’s from Q1 2020. Tough to find Q2 GDP forecasts for NZ. This article suggests “the economy” is going to shrink by 20% in Q2. It’s unclear to me if that’s an apples to apples comparison. I’d imagine NZ’s official Q2 numbers should be out soon.
The 310 billion New Zealand dollar ($200 billion) economy shrank 1.6% in the January-March period from the previous quarter, Statistics New Zealand said Thursday, ending nine years of expansion.
A Wall Street Journal poll of economists had forecast the economy to contract 1.0%. Forecasters say the economy will contract about 20% in the second quarter.
New Zealand uses a happiness index as an indicator for the wealth of its citizens.
The coronavirus gives another stark example of how measuring the wrong thing will give bad results. Putting profit ahead of people’s lives benefits relatively few people at the expense of the vast majority of people who live fearful, desperate and unhappy lives. The US has the highest suicide rates in decades, high rates of mental health issues and many other societal issues caused by measuring the wrong metrics in terms of societal wealth and well-being.
New Zealand has a much more progressive stance, placing the well-being of its citizens above a metric that wasn’t meant to measure societal wealth.
I don’t see this posted anywhere above this, so sorry if my search failed. This article is intensely interesting, though I have no expertise to judge how medically compelling it is. Still, they are claiming it explains most of the Covid symptoms and even the aftereffects.
When you had stated that New Zealand’s economy was doing better than most it had sounded like a very reasonable and likely true statement that you stated based on some actual knowledge, that you could point me to for my education.
Instead it seems that better than most means average at best, that you have no factual basis for the claim.
Maybe it will turn out to be the case for Q2. It would not surprise. There was no intent at a gotcha here: I really had assumed other than that you were making it up when you stated something as fact.
A happiness index may be a worthwhile tool but I wouldn’t offer it as evidence of an economic claim, even if one defines happiness as so measured as wealth.
Waaaay outside my field [and had to look up what a bradykinin was] but it seems these bradykinins are also implicated in some types of cancer. if so, there may be significant long-term health impacts for those who feel they dodged a bullet with a mild or asymptomatic case.
Not that I am convinced at all they even have a coherent case to start with, but the herd immunity approach could be far less beneficial than its advocates are claiming based on a history of less than a year of exposures and monitoring.
I saw this two days ago and found it to be very interesting. They’re saying that instead of a cytokine storm, there may be a bradykinin storm. Bradykinin is a small peptide hormone that promotes vasodilation under certain stimuli like inflammation. Interestingly, ACE inhibitors used to treat high blood pressure also tend to increase bradykinin levels. Side effects can include things like a mild dry cough and fatigue. I’m assuming that a bradykinin storm would then be a more serious dry cough and fatigue. The scarier signs and symptoms of Covid 19 most strongly mimic a bradykinin storm which is associated with severe vascular permeability (leaky blood vessels).
Which quotes an article from July, on an idea that has been around from March at least. Interesting how some ideas (quinine) get all the publicity, and other ideas float under the surface.
Clinical trials on some of the bradykinin ideas started in April, and should be showing results in September. For example Methylene Blue – which may interfere with the bradykinin process, or may actually be a disinfectant doctors can inject into your veins (both have been suggested) MB is cheap, available, has known thearaputic applications, has particularly been suggested for poor countries, and (I think) been listed in India as one of the therapies doctors shouldn’t be just trying ‘because some of the patients got better after a couple of weeks’