Population of the USA: 308 million.
Pfizer expected production, 2021: 25 million.
And given that they are suggesting 2022 production at 1000 million +, you’d have to think that most of that 25 million would be in the second half of the year.
Getting from the factories and into millions of arms twice is very, very complex and daunting. Storage, vials, stoppers, labels, transport, needles, syringes, alcohol wipes, masks, gloves, forms, clerks, hardware, software, input mechanisms, enough people who know how to poke a needle into an arm and are willing to risk working in PPE in close and constant proximity to by definition unvaccinated strangers for days on end, months on end, while simultaneously enough of those trained professionals are struggling to keep people alive in overwhelmed hospitals. It’s viral D-day, for months.
Their expected production for 2020 is 50 million doses (i.e., 25 million people). Their expected production for 2021 is 1.3 billion doses.
So you aren’t including the other 2 vaccines?
Astrazeneca’s vaccine (the Oxford vaccine) is much easier and faster to produce, and does not require special storage. They say they’ll make 3 billion doses next year. The UK pre-ordered 100 million doses, and the US, I believe, 300 million.
I have no doubt it will be a herculean task, and your prediction may well be true, but it may be slightly less bad.
There’s a thread specifically on this topic now. Perhaps this discussion should move there.
Arizona:
Thanks. Correction noted.
60,105,740 total cases
1,414,868 dead
41,553,773 recovered
In the US:
12,955,007 total cases
265,891 dead
7,636,684 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
Tomorrow the US will have over 13,000,000 total cases.
That’s 2,204 dead in one day, people. 
Aye and over 11,000 deaths worldwide.
Sorry about leaving out “in the United States alone”. Thanks, Snowboarder_Bo for the correction.
Latex gloves might be in short supply, but the US might not be as affected. 2,500 workers have tested positive for the coronavirus in the world’s top latex glove producer. Half the factories of the world’s top latex glove maker will shut down.
Almost half the workers in the plants have tested positive for coronavirus.
The workers are packed in crowded dormitories in Malaysia and have horrible working conditions. Many of them are from neighboring Nepal.
The US had already banned gloves from two of the subsidiaries of the company because of the horrible working conditions that have been reported.
In other news, Rite Aid will start charging $115 per covid test from Dec. 1, when federal funds will cease. The lack of a new stimulus package is affecting many areas of the country from people being evicted to rising prices on covid tests and treatment.
New daily high reported cases (seven-day average) on November 24, 2020
Washington
New Jersey
Ohio
Nevada
California
Virginia
Oklahoma
It’s tomorrow. There are seven states with record highs, and no Puerto Rico this time, so we’re doing still better.
As i said, I’m not comparing the actual daily record, but the seven-day-average of daily reported cases, which ought to average out daily variations (which are definitely there).
These reported cases are continuing to drop, and it’s reflected in the reported daily (seven day averaged) cases for the US as a whole, which is definitely going down
I’d be buoyed in my expectations, but I a.) suspect that this would probably turn around on its own, in the absence of other factors; and b.) I really do expect this to turn around because Thanksgiving gives all indications of becoming a Super Spreader event, with lots of people ignoring medical advice and traveling across the country to get-togethers. This, despite Canada’s experience a few weeks ago of COVID cases shooting up after their own Thanksgiving holiday.
My own view is that the current peak relates to the last weeks of the election when there were many gatherings and a lot less caution.
The timing also appears to support this, then again correlation is not evidence.
Personally I would expect a slow decline in cases with a lagging rise in deaths that will also follow 3-5 weeks later. It seems now that deaths follow infections a little later, it was around 3 weeks but improvements in medical intervention means fewer die and those that do tend to pass on later.
I also think that now the politicisation of the pandemic for election purposes is largely spent, people are less likely to gather and more likely to take some precautions - even on the republican side.
In addition the scale of this wave has been such, and it has hit rural areas that previously were only lightly affected which means more people are affected in the previously less cautious parts of the country - so I hope that the Thanksgiving period will not be quite as bad although it will still see an increase.
Huh. Thanksgiving is definitely going to be worse than any election caused surge, imho. Rather obviously, I would think. A big chunk of spread is private unmonitored gatherings which Thanksgiving is and the election was not. While it’s down, air travel this past weekend was about 50% of last year’s pre-Thanksgiving weekend. That’s still a buttload of people.
We shall see
At least in my neck of the woods, anecdotally the current surge was probably due to Halloween parties (as far as I can tell, there is a significant portion of my city that takes Halloween Parties Very Seriously) rather than the election. But judging from the number of people I know who are traveling and/or having Thanksgiving with others (vs the number of people I knew who went to Halloween parties), I think two weeks from now is going to be much worse.
Two words: “winter holidays”
From the “Do as I say, not as I do” dept.–
Mayor of Denver apologizes for holiday travel after advising residents to stay put | TheHill
60,720,993 total cases
1,426,841 dead
42,032,104 recovered
In the US:
13,137,962 total cases
268,219 dead
7,805,280 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
There were more than 12,000 covid deaths worldwide today; more than 2,300 in the US.