I actually think there will be a better understanding of exponential growth in the general public after this is over.
Would that necessarily be a good thing? People with average or below average intelligence are suddenly geniuses. Who is going to do the menial labor society needs taken care of?
They will be so smart that they will build robots to do those jobs.
There are plenty of smart people who do menial jobs. They just lack educational credentials, not brain cells.
Ah, the old “gods and clods” thing, eh?
I’m sorry but today is not a good day for me. I am more worried about this than I was yesterday.
I just went to the City of Toronto website and saw this
Holy shit pickles, we do not need blackouts and flooding to go along with this. Then I realized we are heading into tornado season. What happens if a community is hit by a tornado in the middle of the outbreak? The idea of setting up cots in the high school gym doesn’t seem like a good alternative all of a sudden.
I think I am going to go and have a stiff drink.
Doubling time for reported US cases continues to be about 2 days. That means that by next weekend there may be more than 300,000 cases. The swabs are the limiting factor for testing in many placed here. You need a flocked swab on plastic, not wood and everybody is out.
Illinois is now locked down.
Not now but officially tomorrow at 5pm.
I hear you. This had actually occurred to me over the weekend as I looked at the snow still in my yard. Sure, it’s technically spring now but there was a blizzard here on April 1st in 1997. There was an April blizzard in the Midwest last year. The weather gives not a fig that we’ve got other things to deal with, and it’s still going to do whatever it does, even if we’re already in crisis mode.
And some smart people, even with educations, like physical-work jobs.
I was also thinking recently about how a disaster now in some places would be doubly disastrous.
Exponentially disastrous. A Big One (quake) on the west coast, or the usual massive wildfires when atmospheric rivers dry up, or fun in Tornado Alley, or another regional power outage, or fuel-line blasts - casualties galore and inadequate coverage. What’s the limiting factor?
Still no cases within my small rural county but the week isn’t over.
I find the story of the Rice and the Chessboard to be a powerful tool towards this understanding.
Given that reported cases are as much a function of test (and test supply) availability, total deaths attributed to COVID-19 might be a better number to follow. Right now that seems to be between 3 and 4 days, with the number yesterday at 207 - so by the 22nd would be expected to be over 400 deaths if it continues exponentially. (A lagging indicator of the number of cases but those sick enough to die are likely all tested.)
Just thought I’d throw some links in:
Canada has diagnosed just over 1,000 cases with 13 deaths. This is an important number since it is used to show community spread exists. Of course it does, and there is now a moderate increase in tests being done, which are still restricted to those with symptoms or a history of exposure in many provinces.
Italy waited 18 days before instituting social isolation measures after reaching the 1000 case marker (according to an Economist article, I have not verified this). In fairness, this is a novel and difficult problem. There is some concern cases in Southern Italy are rising due to Northern Italians who travelled to avoid these measures. Spain and Iran also continue to be local epicentres. My heart goes out to all the medical professionals dealing with this crisis and my hope that things improve relatively quickly.
I don’t understand how the 1000-case marker is significant. Canada’s population is lower than Italy’s: surely 1000 cases here means things are farther along than Italy? But we also have a much greater geographic spread: doesn’t that also have implications for diagnosing community spread?
Oh, yes! Following the Italy model is sure to be helpful. Their handling of the crisis is clearly superior.
Rural areas are exposed to the same bugs but cases tend to occur and peak later — now all 50 States and Canadian provinces have reported cases. Cities obviously have more airports, travellers, population number and density. Rural areas have many fewer cases and deaths at this point, and are more likely to lack resources.
This outbreak has obviously garnered a lot of attention. And despite the paucity of testing it is obvious community spread has occurred in several places. Without testing, epidemiologists often use 1000 as a marker for whether community spread is occurring, and the Health Canada officials did not really acknowledge community spread until the number of cases was close to this number.
There are differences in Italy and Canada but they are of unclear significance. The Economist sees some similarities between the US and Italy. It also has a good article on the response in India. I would hesitate to speculate on how “much ahead” one country might be. We’ll have a better idea on whether community measures are working in 1-3 weeks.
For detailed charts of the numbers and growth in Canada, see the wiki article: 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Canada. The numbers are broken down by province, and there’s a map showing cases per million per provincial health district. It shows quite clearly that the highest rates (at the moment) are clustered around major metropolitan centres, particularly those with large international air flights. That pattern could change, of course.