Remember the Grand Princess that finally docked 9 March in Oakland?
17 days have gone by and not everyone has been tested yet. And of the ones who did get tested, many are still awaiting results.
Thanks - yeah, I knew I could look at individual graphs. It would be very eye-opening to see them overlaid on top of each other so we could see the curves; so far the only ones I see are by actual date, not number of days since first infection.
We really are overachievers 
I’m actually playing around on a site called data.world which has sets of statistics by country, day, and even geographic info. You can try doing SQL on the file though I’m running into some challenges there; also, the subset of data today is different from last night (e.g today it’s all from Johns Hopkins, and I forget where yesterday’s was). I’m actually doing this as a work-related learning exercise in statistics.
For people who have had no symptoms – those who would be found only by an anti-body test – there is no way the antibody test can tell if they still have no symptoms or are recovered.
One of my wife’s colleagues, a medical doctor, has been both positive and symptom-free for 3 tests over 10 days. He has been tested while symptom-free because of a known contact with the virus.
However, one possibility is that he is symptom free because he is anti-body free. This is an interesting question that will only be answered when anti-body tests become available.
Russia reports at lest four (4) people have died … :eek:
Come on man you think they lie? :smack:
Me too 
I’m more interested in the fact that Spain had more deaths than Italy today. Why are people not paying more attention to Spain?
Who isn’t? I think the reason Italy was so in the spotlight was that it was the first western country to experience that exponential growth in cases and deaths. Now we know that there will be many more, and no one will be all that surprised if the US blows past Spain0s daily totals in a few days.
At least 25 crew members of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt have tested positive, and the entire 5000 member crew is being tested. The ship is docked in Guam for now.
The widespread obsession, here and in the media in general, with total numbers of cases and deaths, puzzles me.
Why is there so much discussion of totals by country, yet only sporadic mentions of numbers of cases per country per capita?
There is so much hand-wringing over which country is ahead in total numbers. Italy for the win! Wait, Spain ahead by a length now! United States coming from behind, may take the lead next week! It sounds like a day at the horse races.
Why is there so little emphasis on the numbers per capita? The Unites States is a big country. Seen that way, we’re nowhere near Italy or Spain in the numbers.
Same remark applies to the numbers being tested. We may have tested more than South Korea by now, but does that mean we’re ahead of South Korea in testing?
gallows humor: humor that makes fun of a life-threatening, disastrous, or terrifying situation
Seen on TV last night (March 25), but I haven’t seen it in this thread yet. (Maybe I missed it?)
Diana Koelliker, a medical officer in San Miguel County, Colorado, says the county will begin testing of county residents en masse for antibodies.
China closes its borders to foreign Chinese.
People start worrying about the coronavirus impact on poorer countries.
There is of course little data at all on asymptomatic infections. How contagious they are (or not) let alone for how long. The best guess so far is from a Science article that estimated undocumented infections in China (which included asymptomatic and some number of mild infections) had likely been about 55% as infectious as infections bad enough to get documented. But for how long? Likely less long that symptomatic infections one would think, so likely by the time the antibodies are detected past the point? No one yet knows.
Meanwhile I found this 3/18 preprint article that might be of interest.
First the timing of the antibody response in symptomatic infections:
Next they looked at identifying asymptomatic infections in a cohort of 164 close contacts of a couple with COVID19.
Of the 164 close contacts 16 infections were identified by RT-PCR, 3 of whom were asymptomatic (13 symptomatic).
All 16 were also identified by the antibody test, which also identified another 7 asymptomatic cases.
Total symptomatic (not mentioned how symptomatic) 13; total asymptomatic 10 (most missed by RT-PCR alone).
Better to do relatively large scale sampling in China or South Korea where they are past the (initial) peak than in NYC where the case number is still in the rapid rise phase. But this suggests that nearly half of all infections are completely asymptomatic, in addition to whatever number is mild enough as to not come to anyone’s attention or get labeled.
The much faster increase in the rate of infections in the US compared to China is that the US had presumably many places that the infection was brought into. China had only one point of origin, the US had tons.
I agree that per capita numbers are probably better to focus on, but with so little that is known about asymptomatic people, the only numbers you can really look at are deaths, and those will also be skewed by longevity profiles of each country.
Does the antibody test require a blood draw?
I already posted the PRC MOFA’s announcement in this thread (Post #1518). The announcement did not distinguish between foreign citizens and those foreigners who are of Chinese ethnicity.
532,237 confirmed infections
24,089 dead
124,331 recovered
In the US:
85,594 confirmed infections
1,300 dead
1,868 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
The US now has the most confirmed infections of any nation on the planet, as well as the most active cases. USA! USA!
It is now highly likely that worldwide infections will top 600k by this time tomorrow. It took 87 days to get to 500k.
We just have to be the best at everything.
#1! With a bullet, baby!
Yes and no. It requires blood, but at least some of the antibody tests that are being, um, tested, can be done with a drop of blood from a finger prick. Also, they can be done in 45 minutes, not the hours it takes to transcribe the viral RNA from a throat swab.
(I no longer have the reference handy, but I googled a day or two ago and found a couple of companies that have not-yet-approved antibody tests already, along with details of how they work.)