A report from South Africa yesterday:
The hospitals have 7,915 Covid-19 patients of which 6.7% are in intensive care units, the National Institute for Communicable Diseases said in a report on Saturday. Of the 532 people in ICU, 209 are on ventilators, the institute said.
The number of people in hospital due to Covid-19 is, so far, a fraction of the total at the height of earlier infection waves. Covid-19 inpatients peaked at nearly 20,000 in January and July, the peaks of the country’s second and third waves respectively.
Lockdown is still being maintained at the lowest level here, and will be reviewed again next week.
When I look at the UK data, I’m seeing the same pattern as SA, though a couple of weeks behind.
I seem to be almost a lone voice here, but I still think people are panicking unnecessarily about Omicron, focusing on case numbers instead of hospitalizations and deaths. What we are seeing is an uncoupling of case numbers with severe illness.
People seem to be grasping at straws to find reasons why the SA experience with Omicron doesn’t apply elsewhere, but in fact most countries in Europe and the US have higher exposure rates and higher vaccination rates than SA, and there’s no real reason why the experience with Omicron would be different.
Worst case modelling is misleading here. It’s too early for hard science and peer-reviewed studies, and so most scientists are still covering their asses and unwilling to commit themselves – but there’s such a thing as risk evaluation and common sense.