So this is what I get with the numbers:
| Total Cases | Dead | Recovered | Total resolved | % deaths of resolved cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43,404,877 | 699,748 | 32,947,854 | 33,647,602 | 2.08 |
Dead + Recovered = Total cases that have been resolved.
% deaths of resolved cases = Dead / Recovered.
So the overall mortality rate of COVID 19 was just under 2.1% per the numbers posted 10 hours ago. I made similar calculations last year, pre-vaccine, and ISTR the percentage of deaths in resolved cases was much higher.
You can see the case fatality rate in the US over time here:
Keep in mind the infection fatality rate (deaths/all cases) is much lower - somewhere around 0.2%-0.3%.
It looks like the current mortality rate on the graph is about 1.4%, which is less than 2.1%. However I was using Snowboarder_Bo’s numbers, which are totals from the start of the pandemic in the United States (January 2020). Since there was no vaccine then and (I think) most of the deaths in the U.S. happened pre-vaccine, that would skew the percentage higher.
I’m not sure what you mean about the infection fatality rate. Do you mean everyone who was, or currently is, infected? If so, my personal opinion is that using the total number of infections isn’t very useful because there’s no telling how many currently infected people will recover, and how many will die. That’s why I used the number of resolved cases – infections that were resolved by recovering or else dying.
It looks like the chart is reflecting the localized fatality rate at moments in time by comparing the recent deaths versus recent cases. So I guess it’s saying that at this moment in time, a positive case today has about a 1.5% chance of being fatal.
Case fatality rate = # of deaths / # of confirmed cases
Infection fatality rate = # of deaths / # of total cases
You may have seen it mentioned that the actual number of case is multiples of the number of laboratory confirmed cases. The IFR uses that number as the denominator. IFR is a better metric to look at if you want to look at real fatality rate.
This is not true for the overwhelming majority of cases. It’s waaayyyy too high. COVID-19 is exponentially more dangerous to older people. To get an accurate picture you really need to break it down by age:
Infection Fatality Rate by age:
0-34: 0.004%
35-44: 0.068%
45-54: 0.23%
55-64: 0.75%
65-74: 2.5%
75-84: 8.5%
85+: 28.3%
It looks like the current mortality rate on the graph is about 1.4%, which is less than 2.1%.
I don’t really like the case fatality rate from ourworldindata. They calculate it by taking the deaths at a given time and dividing that by the number of new cases 10 days earlier. You’ll notice that the case fatality rate is high in May. That’s because number of cases were low at that time.
While you’re absolutely correct that using CFR has all sorts of issues, it used to be the best we had as IFR studies are hard to do right. I was about to point out all of the problems of bias with the IFR studies that are out there and based on things like blood donations and lab results, but they appear to be addressed as much as possible in the study you linked. I’m still short of assuming that it represents a universal IFR, but it’s the best thought out study I’ve seen along these lines. +1
So far, COVID has increased life expectancy in Australia. The massive spike in COVID deaths in the elderly when it got into nursing homes was less than the overall reduction in deaths in the elderly, provisionally attributed to lockdown.
I haven’t looked at the study, but generally you would expect the simple case fatality rate to be high when the number of cases has been falling, rather than when the number of cases if low. Because a 10 day estimator should be >10 days when the number of cases has been falling, and <10 days when it is rising.
But then you get into a circle where you base the case fatality rate on an expectation of the case fatality rate, which isn’t fundamentally more informative than just reporting the case fatality rate.
231,397,264 total cases
4,742,761 dead
208,082,102 recovered
In the US:
43,532,491 total cases
702,978 dead
33,033,525 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
Hawaii has seen two (2) separate air-rage incidents today, but no one is yet quite sure if they were Covid-related. First, on a flight from Honolulu to Hilo on the Big Island this morning, a local passenger just up and punched a male flight attendant twice. It was by all accounts totally unprovoked. At first the news speculated it was mask-related, but now they’re saying no. They’re speculating maybe he was drunk, but it was 7:30am. The attendant was just walking through picking up the passengers’ trash when the guy up and attacked him with no warning. The plane turned back to Honolulu, and the perp is in FBI custody.
Next, a flight from Honolulu to Seattle turned back due to a disturbance onboard. That plane landed here just an hour ago, and details are not yet known.
Jesus Fucking Christ, but even if you are the most radical anti-vaxxer, anti-masker in the world, do you really, really, really think acting violently on board an aircraft is the best of moves?
It was just said on the TV news that it was a passenger refusing to wear a mask two hours into the flight. Did he think they’d just say, “Oh, well,” and keep going to Seattle? He’s in custody now too, back here in Honolulu.
It is also a different calculation now for the vaccinated v unvaccinated.
So if you want to estimate your own specific risk then you need to first of all consider your vaccination status, then your age, then your overall health status.
For me the most telling stat from the above link was this…
- In England, between 2 January and 2 July 2021, there were 51,281 deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19); 640 occurred in people who were fully vaccinated, which includes people who had been infected before they were vaccinated.
yeah, 640 out of 51,281, barely 1% and of that 1% only half got that infection two weeks or more after their second dose, and of that fraction the median age is something like 84 with 76% of those same deaths being classed as extremely clinically vulnerable.
If those numbers don’t convince people to get vaccinated, nothing will.
My bold.
Sadly, the key word in both these comments is “think.” There wasn’t any going on. This was visceral, irrational rage that began and ended below the neck. 
Alaska is really shooting up at an increasing rate. Wednesday’s average value of 1058 is up to 1383 as of yesterday, and it looks as if it will be higher tomorrow.
Montana has set a new record high of 1322, above the previous record high of 1292 set on November 17, 2020. It looks as if it will get higher over the next few days, as well
Wyoming and Idaho look as if they might hit new records, as well. Some other states have rapidly rising rates of new cases, but aren’t yet near their record high values.
In this Alaska Tourism commercial, Gov. Dunleavey says Alaska has one of the highest vaccination rates in the country. USA Facts says ‘In Alaska, 414,509 people or 56% of the state has received at least one dose. Overall, 362,250 people or 49% of Alaska’s population has been fully vaccinated.’ Since Washington is at 70%/62% and other states are even higher, Alaska’s numbers don’t seem impressive.
Today’s NYT uses Alaska as its state breakout comparator in the regional graph at
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
For contrast, Spain (where my friends and associates reported being more stringently locked down and having much less access to vaccines) is 77% fully vaccinated even though the US had much more access much earlier.
Here’s the world, sorted by % fully vaccinated.
A few points of comparison:
Portugal 84%
UK 67%
Cambodia 65%
Japan 56%
Czech Republic 56%
USA is next on the descending list, 41st from the top.
231,919,269 total cases
4,751,656 dead
208,529,845 recovered
In the US:
43,668,680 total cases
705,293 dead
33,112,993 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
Repeating to self over and over “No politics here. No complaints about our governor here.”
# COVID-19 outbreaks 3.5 times more likely in schools without mask mandates, report says