More on the Merck antiviral. The wording on the Merck site is
At the interim analysis, molnupiravir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by approximately 50%; 7.3% of patients who received molnupiravir were either hospitalized or died through Day 29 following randomization (28/385), compared with 14.1% of placebo-treated patients (53/377); p=0.0012. Through Day 29, no deaths were reported in patients who received molnupiravir, as compared to 8 deaths in patients who received placebo.
That wording “through day 29” suggests to me that they are talking about the time period from day 1 to day 29 and that indeed no-one in the molnupiravir group died. But absent the full trial data I can’t be certain.
Part of the problem may be that they are using the term “hospitalized or died” collectively and don’t explicitly break it down further in the press release. i.e.
Placebo group - 53 hospitalised and 8 died
Active drug group - 28 hospitalised 0 died.
Happy to be corrected on this though if anyone can find more detailed data.
I must say, if my interpretation is correct I’m surprised that this isn’t bigger news. This is potentially a huge game-changer of the magnitude not seen since the first vaccines. Perhaps we’ve just taken those successes for granted now?
Yeah, the full publication will follow and that’ll have a clear timeline of what happened to the cohorts.
Mind you, the real big giveaway for me is that the indepent analysts stopped the trial as soon as the effect became apparent. (if you see a huge and immediate life-saving effect early on then it becomes unethical to carry on giving a placebo, something which is obvious when you think about it but many people aren’t aware of)
The one thing we do know for sure is that whatever the effect was, it’s a biggie, which is great news.
Incidentally, I think the Nobel awards for medicine are up for release soon, it’ll be interesting to see what happens there as it must surely be Covid-related. You’d imagine they are spoilt for choice.
Merck stock was up 8% on Friday. Moderna closed down 12% and Novavax closed down 13% on (and was down almost 30% intraday) on this news - which are large moves. Pfizer fell, but not as much, as they have a larger drug pipeline.
This news might not be making headlines, but following the money, it is very big news.
I heard yesterday that Merck thinks they’d only be able to make 10 million doses by the end of the year andmale or female you have to take birth control while on it so it’s likely fetal toxic, so I’m honestly not sure it’s going to get emergency approval soon.
One reason people may be agreeable to the pill versus the vaccine is that the pill is taken when someone is infected. When they are at the threshold of their own death, reality hits and they may realize they need the pill to survive. The vaccine isn’t really like that. It’s preventative. It’s easy to not get vaccinated since there’s no immediate benefit. But hopefully when they need it, they don’t realize that a pill that size can be stuffed with a lot more 5G tracking chips than the vaccine.
I could easily be wrong about this, but my understanding is that this new pill is only effective if taken shortly after one becomes infected. Don’t know the exact timing, but being at death’s door is likely well outside that window.
They also won’t trust a fully FDA approved vaccine that costs the federal government $20 but they will take emergency FDA approved monoclonal antibodies that cost the feds $2000. They opened a clinic in my area but the demand is higher than the availability.
Drugs in the same class as molnupiravir have been linked to birth defects in animal studies. Merck has said similar studies of molnupiravir – for longer and at higher doses than used in humans – indicate that the drug does not affect mammalian DNA.
Having to be on birth control while you are actively sick doesn’t seem like a huge impediment.
I mean, what’s the alternative? Not have the drug at all, because you can’t be sure that someone won’t lie about being pregnant and might end up losing a pregnancy or having a child with developmental abnormalities?
