I tripped and knocked my knee very badly earlier today, bad enough that I thought I might pass out or vomit from the pain. The first thought following that was “I better not need a hospital”. Luckily with ice and ibuprofen it appears to be badly bruised and swollen but I don’t think I broke anything.
85,509,035 total cases
1,850,717 dead
60,457,393 recovered
In the US:
21,113,528 total cases
360,078 dead
12,436,958 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
The states achieving a new record high Daily Reported Cases (seven day average) on January 3 are
New York
Arizona
West Virginia
Virginia
South Carolina
Oklahoma
Florida
(Maryland just barely misses it)
Uh-huh. Here we go again - another national lockdown in England. This story appears to be still being updated.
j
There’s a lovely new mutation showing up briskly in South Africa, tagged the “501.V2 Variant.” Seems to be way more contagious than the original strain and also seems to be affecting younger people much harder as well. If we can’t get our stupid motherfuckers to accept vaccination (always assuming the mRNA and DNA vaxxes will also protect against the mutated strains) I very much fear we’re all gonna fuckin’ die.
https://www.who.int/csr/don/31-december-2020-sars-cov2-variants/en/
A link in P&E sent me over to Politico where I just happened across this story, which I had not previously seen. Obviously (from England) I have no idea how big a story this was in the US.
Guessing about the following:
Operation Warp Speed chief adviser Moncef Slaoui said there is evidence that two half doses in people between the ages of 18 and 55 gives “identical immune response” to the recommended one hundred micorogram (sic) dose, but said the final decision will rest with the FDA.
A scout of the published data turned up this document, which states on page 8:
Phase 1 open-label, dose-ranging study to evaluate safety and immunogenicity of mRNA-1273 in healthy adults ≥18 years old
Total of 120 participants in 3 age cohorts:
18-55 yrs (n=60); 56-70 yrs (n=30); ≥71 yrs (n=30)
Dose levels studied: 25 µg, 50 µg, 100 µg, 250 µg
Immunogenicity:
• Two doses induced comparable SARS-CoV-2 binding and neutralizing antibodies in both age cohorts
• Th1-biased CD4+ T-cell response elicited
If that’s right then (from the very little data I could find) it looks like the same sort of study that the MHRA relied on when they allowed a gap of up to 12 weeks between Astra-Zeneca injections (albeit that the A-Z study had higher subject numbers) (plus it wouldn’t hurt for an expert to take a look, if we have one handy).
j
I guess they’re going from Warp Speed to Impulse Power.
86,109,941 total cases
1,860,584 dead
61,060,417 recovered
In the US:
21,353,051 total cases
362,123 dead
12,736,512 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
Only a few new record daily highs in reported cases yesterday
Arizona
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Oklahoma
It’s still rising scarily in other states(Kentucky is definitely poised for a new record high), but we have a statistical respite
Story on CNN:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/04/us/wisconsin-pharmacist-vaccine-vials-court-hearing/index.html
Third day in a row for Arizona. And the other four all appeared in one of your two previous reports…
86,834,916 total cases
1,875,520 dead
61,533,599 recovered
In the US:
21,578,606 total cases
365,620 dead
12,862,216 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
We had a thread that mentioned this subject a while ago. Apparently the LA-like system is also common across the USA. Since that thread, I’ve been paying attention to accident reports here in Australia, and I haven’t heard “was pronounced dead at the scene”, which used to be a common expression, and I have heard “died after ” and “died at the hospital” used in way which make me suspect that nobody is willing to admit that people are dead until they arrive at a hospital.
This from 2 weeks ago:
Vaccine distribution: Why states getting 40% fewer doses than expected (jsonline.com)
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel was quoting Gen. Gustave Perna, chief operating officer for Operation Warp Speed, saying that it was entirely his fault that the number of vaccine doses available was lower than what they had told the states, because he’d personally entirely missed the fact that
… the FDA, by regulation, takes 48 hours just to process the paperwork for each batch of vaccine …
One can only hope that somewhere someone felt embarrassed by that.
New record daily highs for January 5
Rhode Island
New Hampshire
Massachusetts (just extended shutdowns for three weeks)
Vermont
Connecticut
Texas
South Carolina
North Carolina
Florida
Oklahoma
Kentucky
The EMA has recommended approval the Moderna Vaccine.
Approval creates a marketing authorisation valid throughout the EU; and an extension mechanism creates national authorisations in some additional EEA countries.
j
Please excuse if this isn’t the right place for this. I couldn’t see a better one.
When experts say we need a 70-80% vaccination rate to achieve herd immunity, are children included in the remaining 20%? There are around 65 million children under age 16 (too young to get the vaccine), comprising about 19 % of the population. That wouldn’t leave much leeway for adults who can’t or won’t get vaccinated.
Further information on the Astra-Zeneca vaccine: the UK Public Assessment Report was published yesterday. Available at this link. - PDF warning.
It’s 57 pages long and (aside from the lay summary) not aimed at the lay reader. So I scanned it and here are a few points to note. I’m omitting much to keep the post short(ish).
All studies were originally planned to investigate a single dose regimen but were amended in July 2020 to investigate a two-dose regimen in view of early immunogenicity results. The booster was planned to be given at the earliest possible time (in principle, 28 days after the prime dose), but due to logistical constraints, this interval was very variable.
(p25)
So: the decision to include a second (“booster”) dose in the studies was made “on the hoof” and resulted in dose intervals between the first and second doses which varied from less than six weeks up to 12 weeks, with patient numbers in these sub-groups just about high enough for analyses – which showed that the 12 week gap produced the highest antibody response (Table 3, p28). Because of a manufacturing error, some of these patients received a low initial dose and a then standard second dose, and had a stronger immune response (which was widely reported) – but subsequent analysis concluded that it was the dose gap, rather than the dose size, which produced these effects.
Note that the above result is ONLY on a biological marker and not proof of efficacy. HOWEVER:
Subgroup analyses were conducted of vaccine efficacy by dosing interval. In line with immunogenicity data where increases in the binding and neutralising antibody responses were observed with increased dosing interval, efficacy was demonstrated with more certainty for dose intervals from 8-12 weeks. For the subgroup with dosing interval 8-11 weeks, VE [vaccine efficacy] was 72.85%, 95% CI (43.45, 86.97), for the subgroup with dosing interval > 11 weeks, it was 81.90%, 95% CI (59.93, 91.90). Exploratory subgroup analyses showed vaccine efficacy around 80% for longer dosing intervals, but data were limited and estimates were associated with wide confidence intervals.
(p35)
In the clinical trial the booster dose worked, and it is now part of the dosage regimen. It is to be given between 4-12 weeks after the first dose – the longer interval appearing to produce better protection in the efficacy analysis. The subject numbers are low, but this is direct evidence of efficacy.
And here’s more good news:
Protection after the first vaccine dose
Exploratory analyses were conducted to investigate whether protective immunity was induced by the first dose and what the duration of protection was. The follow-up time began at 22 days after the first dose and was censored at the time of the second dose. Results indicated that the first dose provided protective immunity at least until 12 weeks.
(p34).
You have to take this in the context of the UK plan to roll out a first dose as fast as possible to create as much initial coverage as possible, followed by a second dose much (12 weeks) later. The two key questions:
Am I covered for those 12 weeks by the first dose? and
Does a booster at 12 weeks work?
-are at least partially addressed by the data (yes; and yes, maybe even better than for an earlier booster) – it’s thin on subject numbers, but the results look good.
Other points to note:
Subjects swab-tested through the study, and this provides information about asymptomatic cases. Analyses indicate that vaccination prevented asymptomatic cases, leading to a further beneficial effect on transmission rates (though it’s oddly phrased.) (p33)
I hadn’t thought about it, but the active component of the vaccine is a GMO (p9). Let’s see how that goes.
j
End note: - no, you can’t just change clinical studies on the hoof. But it’s the simple way to put it.
That 70-80% is a highly educated guess.
My slightly educated guess is that COVID can’t be driven to extinction, as was smallpox (with polio getting close), without vaccinating children. But it probably can get to a point where one could claim it to be an uncommon disease without children.
How uncommon? I don’t know.
Back to normal will depend on public perception of whether severe COVID has become sufficiently uncommon. How rare severe COVID has to become, and what qualifies as mild COVID we can accept, is a known unknown.
It’s pointless to vaccinate children at this point in the raging pandemic.
That does NOT mean we won’t get to the point of having a proper pediatric vaccine and then vaccinating kids too. Just not in 2021 or 2022.