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Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2021 Breaking News - #183 by Heffalump_and_Roo.
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Thanks. I’ll dig into that thread. Which is actually this thread, just ~400 posts ago.
Unrelated to the above …
Here’s a good current blog post on virus variants:
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/18/coronavirus-variants
Here’s one of the punchline paragraphs about how dangerous mutations form:
The most likely way that these things happen is for the whole process to take place inside the body of a single patient – one with a grinding long-term coronavirus infection that their immune system is having trouble clearing. This report from December of an immune-compromised patient is exactly that situation: this unfortunate person suffered from at least 154 days of coronavirus before dying from it and his underlying conditions. Sequencing of the virus at different points during this infection shows unmistakeable evidence of its evolution under these forcing conditions – constant immune system attack, but never quite enough to kill the infection off.
The terrifying thing is that, writ large, that’s exactly what we as a species are doing about COVID in general.
We now have widespread infection with humanity collectively mounting a constant but half-assed ineffective counterattack via masking, distancing, and vaccination. All of this is enough to slow it down, but also to produce stronger, better viruses among those who survive.
You as an individual body or we as a collective humanity win by applying overwhelming force without exception until the last virus dies of old age after a month or so. Half-assed measures don’t cut it.
110,837,382 total cases
2,452,582 dead
85,777,631 recovered
In the US:
28,523,524 total cases
505,309 dead
18,703,421 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
Here’s some news:
THE Derek Lowe - chemist who blogs about stuff in labs he won’t work with because; humor, smells, explosions, etc… all good stuff and great reads.
And here’s a decent 5 minute video that also talks about the variants:
111,249,648 total cases
2,463,652 dead
86,123,535 recovered
In the US:
28,603,813 total cases
507,746 dead
18,803,723 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
Hawaii is found to be the second-safest state in terms of the pandemic, behind only Alaska. (Ohio, South Carolina and New York get the lowest marks.)
To date, Hawaii has had 27,107 Covid-19 cases with 430 deaths.
I don’t think Hawaii is surprising. A state of isolated islands should be the easiest to protect.
My best friend, a fellow American who lives in northeastern Thailand, has a daughter who finished her bachelor’s degree in tourism a couple years ago at Khon Kaen University. That plus her being a fluent English speaker landed her a plum job at a five-star resort in Chiang Mai, in the North. That was shortly before Covid hit. She got laid off of course. Her parents are helping her out financially. She’s sticking it out in Chiang Mai for the time being.
111,654,017 total cases
2,472,387 dead
86,819,096 recovered
In the US:
28,706,473 total cases
509,875 dead
18,899,272 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
Some good news. UC Davis hospital claims to have 95% immunity in its staff. The level of staff sickness is way down since the vaccines have been administered. Some of the staff are converted believers in the vaccine. This newsclip says that 56M people have been vaccinated in the country.
California is setting aside 10% of vaccines for its teachers so that schools can open faster. Newsom feels that the April 15 target is not aggressive enough, so he’s trying to get more of the school workers vaccinated faster.
LA is cautiously optimistic with the case rates and hospitalizations going down that the worst is over. They’re hoping that the vaccine and the level of immunity reached from being getting coronavirus will prevent another huge spike. But they’re advising not to let your guard down.
Good news, though a bit optimistic as compared to the New York Times:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Saturday about 42.8 million people have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, including about 17.9 million people who have been fully vaccinated.
After seeing susan’s post, I need to amend this statement. That’s 56M doses, not people.
At this point, they need to get the first dose out to as many people as possible; it’s better to have some immunity spread out across the population than to have a select few who are fully vaccinated. It’s basic math.
It may seem like basic math but it isn’t basic medical science, immunology or epidemiology.
If circumstances were different, I’d be inclined to agree, but what we’re talking about is the difference between more widespread distribution and use of a partial vaccine does that very likely provides some protection and a limited distribution of a more complete vaccination that, while offering stronger immunity in those who receive the dose, offers less protection to the population as a whole.
The way I see it, the vaccine rollout is what it is. It’s not going to be perfect by any stretch - that ship has left port. But we can give at least partial protection to a much larger group of people, which is the better option, IMO.
ETA: One expert agrees with this approach: Top epidemiologist says Biden administration needs to focus on first vaccine doses
Well said.
That’s speaking as someone who will have to wait 12 weeks for my second dose (UK). As it happens, I had the A-Z vaccine, where there is (some) evidence to support this; but if I had been given Pfizer or Moderna I would still have to wait - and there’s no evidence to support an extended gap between doses for those 2 vaccines.
@asahi - I take your point, but there’s no reason to assume plain sailing if second doses are delayed. I posted this upthread - the article is very balanced (and worth a read), and the quote below is from the “case against”, as it were.
Covid-19 vaccination: What’s the evidence for extending the dosing interval?
Could the gap lead to vaccine resistant strains of SARS-CoV-2?
Paul Bieniasz, a retrovirologist from Rockefeller University who is studying how the virus can acquire mutations, has warned that the UK was taking a gamble that risked fostering vaccine resistant forms of the virus. He told the news site STAT, “My concern, as a virologist, is that if you wanted to make a vaccine-resistant strain, what you would do is to build a cohort of partially immunized individuals in the teeth of a highly prevalent viral infection.”
My bold.
j
Somewhat breaking news is
In research published Friday in the Lancet medical journal, one dose of Pfizer’s vaccine was shown to be 85% effective in preventing symptomatic disease 15 to 28 days after being given, according to a peer-reviewed observational study of about 9,000 people conducted by the Israeli government-owned Sheba Medical Center.
Probably paywalled, but I quoted the bit with numbers.
Another article i read, but can’t find now, said that they didn’t see the effectiveness of one dose immediately because they didn’t distinguish between people who’d just gotten vaccinated and those who’d been vaccinated >2 weeks prior in the initial studies. (Also, I think the initial studies gave everyonea second dose after 21 days, so they didn’t have a lot of data for “one dose a while ago”.) The other article also said that most of what was circulating in Israel when this study was done was the note contagious UK variant, so that’s extra food news.
NM, mixed up my threads.