According to ourworldindata.org which says it gets its data from John Hopkins, the last time the 7-day rolling average in the US was lower than it is now was March 31st, 2020. I’m guessing the holiday weekend is making the numbers today lower than they would otherwise be but we’re testing more today in both absolute terms as well as tests per case.
So anyway, daily new cases haven’t been this low since two weeks after the initial shutdowns.
Yeah, I’d wait a couple weeks to celebrate. Holiday weekends produce huge delays in the data, and it won’t catch up until probably this Thursday.
Yes, but:
We’ve been heading this way for a while now. Based on the rate of decline in new cases in the last few weeks, I’d been anticipating that we’d get to this number later this week. So even with post-holiday catch up, there’s a decent chance that the average number of new cases does no worse than stay flat.
I’m hopeful of that, at least. I was an early and constant pessimist throughout this whole thing so even though I’m not celebrating anything, it’s good to finally be on the other side of most people I talk to.
I am curious to see what happens in a week or two. Will there be a holiday surge among the unvaccinated and how big can that get now that most people eligible are at least partially vaccinated?
I’m also curious, but it will probably take more than a week or two to really see anything. At any given party, 3 people catch it, then give it to 1-2 other people over the next week or two, who give it to a few more over another couple of weeks, etc. Sturgis, for instance, appeared to show up in a big way after several months. You could watch it slowly pick up speed in the surrounding states and finally peak about 2.5-3 months after the rally.
The military bases have gone beyond that. Signs at the golf courses now read [paraphrase] Fully vaccinated individuals more than 14 days after last vaccination do not require masking in the facility [pro shop]. Masking still advised, just not required.
171,471,511 total cases
3,565,190 dead
153,779,490 recovered
In the US:
34,113,146 total cases
609,767 dead
27,863,840 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
I bet state and local health officials would love to have that data. Is it possible that ones vaccination status has to be voluntarily revealed by the patient and that is the data being reported by Duchin?
Is it possible to detect whether one is vaccinated or not by blood test? If so, is it ethical/legal to collect that data without permission? Maybe it can be reported anonymously to help discern trends?
Can’t be detected via blood test.
You can’t collect that without permission, but you could ask it on a survey when you get the covid test. That’s what I assumed they were doing in some counties. The data wouldn’t be that great, but 97% unvaccinated is a huge number (and matches the previous data).
Theoretically, you could report it anonymously. I recall that in Florida, the state stopped counting positive covid retests to reduce their numbers and test positivity rates. They tracked people by giving them a number originally linked to their names.
I’m not sure if you meant that it can’t be detected by blood test because of the need to get permission, but vaccination status can certainly be detected by blood test (with the usual caveats about error rates). It can even determine if you have antibodies from a vaccine or from having COVID.
From here:
What Does My Test Result Mean?
Reactive test result: …This result means that you likely received the COVID-19 vaccine and did not have a COVID infection.
Positive test result: …A positive test result indicates that you were likely exposed to the virus, regardless of whether you experienced symptoms or received a COVID19- vaccine.
Cool. I didn’t know that you could distinguish antibodies from vaccines vs infection using typical tests. Do you know how they’re doing that?
One test looks for antibodies to the spike protein, which is what the vaccines all target. The other test looks for antibodies to a different protein which is found on the virus but not in the vaccines. Link.
Antibodies that an individual produces when they’ve been exposed to the virus are slightly different from the antibodies that an individual produces when they’ve been vaccinated. When an individual has been infected with a virus, they produce antibodies to multiple regions of a virus. At the Red Cross, we use two antibody tests to generate our results on blood, platelet and plasma donations. One test – Ortho’s total test – detects antibodies to the spike protein of the virus. The other detects antibodies to a different protein of the virus called the nucleocapsid protein. If a donor has had the COVID-19 vaccine, they will generate an antibody against the spike protein but not the nucleocapsid protein, which will only occur in the event of a COVID-19 infection.
Yes, and you can distinguish someone who has been vaccinated but not exposed to the virus from someone who has been exposed to virus. But you can’t distinguish vaccination status among those who have been exposed.
There are currently two broad classes of antibody tests on the market. One class tests for antibodies to the spike protein, and the other door antibodies to the nucleotide capsule, basically, the “shell” of the virus.
People who have been vaccinated, but not exposed to covid, only have antibodies to the spike. Their immune system has never seen the shell. Those who have been exposed to covid have antibodies to both the shell and the spike.
Now… It’s more complicated than that, and there are separate tests for antibodies that develop quickly and then go away as compared to antibodies that take longer to develop and hang around longer. So if you knew exactly when someone was exposed, you might be able to tease out if they had prior exposure. On the other hand, not everyone develops antibodies. And those who were vaccinated and then catch covid may have fewer (or no) antibodies to begin with.
I think the only way to know if a person currently ill with covid had been vaccinated is to ask them out check their medical record.
Good point, and on review, my “correction” to Tfletch1 wasn’t really correct. If someone had COVID, you can’t necessarily tell if they’ve been vaccinated from an antibody test. I’m not sure it makes a difference for the data set we’re discussing, but it’s a valid point.
@troutman and @puzzlegal, I understand the difference between epitopes and ability to detect them. Is it true that if you order a typical antibody test, you’ll get tested to distinguish between the presence of N + S proteins vs S alone? If so, we have a repository of data. Not as much as rna tests but there may be something there.
I’ve actually been researching this, and the answer is that most testing is just for the spike protein, but other options exist.
For instance, you can buy an antibody test from CVS, and it will just test for igG and igM antibodies to the the spike protein. Same with the consumer-advertised test that Qwest is selling, although Qwest also offers a test for antibodies to the shell for doctors who are ordering tests for their patients.
The red cross is doing both for blood donations.
Well, that might be enough for some data. It would be completely anonymous. Just have a patient # so you can disaggregate the data. People positive for anti-S alone and not anti-N would be less likely to have been infected but got the vaccine.
Sorry for the hijack. I thought this was interesting way to collect large amounts of data without having to survey people on whether they were vaccinated.
The Red Cross data would be an excellent dataset for detailed study. The antibody tests are already associated to all the survey questions about if/when you had symptoms, any positive COVID tests, and when you had a vaccine.
I donate platelets regularly, so I’ve had an antibody test every few weeks. It was cool to see it switch from Negative to Reactive two weeks after my first shot.
I researched this because my husband’s test results switched from “Negative” to “Positive” two weeks after his first shot. NOT to “Reactive”, which is what he’d been expecting. He had no symptoms, and extremely little potential for exposure beyond the visit to donate blood itself. So we’re guessing a false positive.
And now I’m going to kick myself for contributing to a hijack to the breaking news thread. I think if we want to keep talking about this, it needs to be in a new thread.
I work for a university that is telling us that we’re going back to full, as normal teaching in the fall, with classrooms at 100% capacity with 300 students. And we’re not allowed to even ask anyone if they have been vaccinated. And they are “looking into” the shitty ventilation systems in some of the classrooms.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/01/us/las-vegas-reopening/index.html
In a city built on knowing the odds, I think they are going to lose that bet.