In any event, it’s been clear to me since this started that different sources get their information from different places. They rarely agree in particular, although the overall trends pretty much agree. That’s why I always have used the same source (The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus map), and frequently say so. Because you can really only make comparisons of the source with its own earlier reported results.
I have no idea why the New York Times has different numbers. I don’t know how or where either the New York Times or Johns Hopkins get their information, and I don’t think there’s much point in comparing them, especially on a short-term basis. In the long run, I’m sure they agree (such as in the epidemic dying down now after hitting a peak that for most states was at the beginning of January).
I’ve already said that I suspect this blip in Nebraska is probably some sort of data tic, as if they suddenly dropped a lot of cases on one day, much as it appears to have been in Maine a week or so ago. If the NYT source didn’t see the same thing, I’m not surprised.
My state reports data organized both by when it’s reported to the state and by when it happened. Both have advantages and disadvantages, but they are always different. And the “day it happened” data changes over time, because not all of the people who test positive today got reported today, so today’s number will grow over time.
So yeah, there are lots of reasons that the various data repositories all disagree slightly.
I just found out that official CDC COVID guidelines have changed. The guidelines are now based on a per-county basis. You can get more data here:
Personally, I disagree with yellow slightly, in that it should also consider not only one’s own risk, but that of those you are most in contact with. And that this should also be considered at least somewhat if you are in a green county.
Do note that these are not permanent changes, as the CDC has made it clear that they reserve the right to ratchet things back up when hot spots arise. The idea seems to be to reduce fatigue in areas where hospitals are not overwhelmed and deaths and severe illness is lower.
My own county is in the green. The NYT had it in the orange (which is below red and burgundy in their system, but well above gold, yellow, and white). It seems, however, that they are now deferring to the CDC.
I found this out by keeping up with Beau of the Fifth Column, BTW. He notes that this is a part of a further push from Biden where you can get four more tests, getting out more testing clinics, and making it where you can get an antiviral as soon as you test positive.
As predicted, the Johns Hopkins coronavirus site lists a new daily reported new covid case record high (7-day average) for Nebraska for March 3 – 5610. It’s probably the remaining fallout for whatever glitsch was responsible several days ago. The only other state showing anything out of the ordinary simmering is Maine, which continues to plummet in the aftermath of its own glitsch.
Globally, the US daily caseload appears to be asymptotically approaching a level of about 50,000 cases per day, well under that of several other countries.
We are way down but not close to down as far as last summer. I wonder if those sorts of numbers are achievable, or if the virus is now just too communicable for us to ever get there again.
(and unlike measles, you can catch it over and over. So we’ll never reach “herd immunity” without high uptake of boosters of an excellent vaccine. I don’t see that happening.)
Some apparent further news on the origin question:
Neither of the papers provides the smoking gun — that is, an animal infected with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus at a market.
But they come close. They provide photographic evidence of wild animals, which can be infected with and shed SARS-CoV-2, sitting in the market in late 2019 — such as raccoon dogs and a red fox. What’s more, the caged animals are shown in or near a stall where scientists found SARS-CoV-2 virus on a number of surfaces, including on cages, carts and machines that process animals after they are slaughtered at the market.
Note that papers haven’t been through peer review yet.
I’m personally anticipating that, as the weather warms up and people move from indoor to outdoor activities. That said, another variant can always pop up. Our 7-day average for this date is about 10,000 cases less than last year, so I’m hopeful. (In terms of deaths, it’s about 6% lower than same time last year.)
FWIW, going by Worldometers’ 7-day average for the U.S., confirmed cases now are the lowest they’ve been since July 22nd, 2021. And still dropping.
The last time the 7-day average of confirmed cases in the U.S. increased was between January 11th and 12th, 2022. So we’re at 51 consecutive days that the 7-day average has decreased.
Starting tomorrow, the island of Oahu, which has an 80% vaccination rate, will no longer require proof of vaccination or a negative test to enter restaurants and other businesses. About the only measure to be left in place is wearing a mask indoors, with Hawaii the only state with no plans to do away with that.
The wife is in Bangkok for a month, so I ventured around Waikiki last Saturday night and could not find a bar with an open seat. Bars and restaurants can operate at full capacity now, but no standing. There were lines at some, people waiting to get in, but I wasn’t that desperate for a drink. Eventually headed home. I think I’ll take a look tonight.
Case counts are very low now in Hawaii. The overall toll for the state since the start of the pandemic is 237,167 cases and 1353 deaths.