How many US deaths do you expect in early 2022?

Last winter, in spite of mask mandates, in spite of limits to how many people were supposed to gather for the holidays, just under 100,000 Americans died in January (99,998 subtracting Snowboarder_Bo’s January 1 cumulative deaths from February 1 cumulative deaths) and another 42,961 Americans died over the next two weeks. Averaging those 45 days we get 3177 deaths a day.

So…how many people do you think will end up dying a day over the course of those same 46 days in 2022?

On one hand compared to a year ago we have far fewer mask mandates and unrestricted travel and unlimited size of gatherings, possibly significantly waning immunity of those who were vaccinated first (i.e. the elderly and immune compromised) and freaking delta. Plus, in colder states like where I am, cases have risen sharply the past 2 weeks.

On the other we have a lot of vaccination of those ages 12 and up, and just within the past 2 weeks kids ages 5-11 have become eligible for vaccination (though only a million or so kids 11 or younger have been vaccinated yet) and booster shots (which 1 in 3 people over 65 have gotten).

Which of these sets of variables do you weigh more heavily as we stare down the barrel of another holiday season?

What do you anticipate the average daily covid death toll in the US to be from January 1 to February 15?

  • less than 1000/day
  • 2000/day
  • 3000/day
  • 4000/day
  • 5000/day
  • more than 5000/day

0 voters

We’re roughly at the US numbers we had 1 year ago, and rising as they did last year. I think they will peak lower for the reasons you gave, but will rise sharply as people gather for holidays and spend more time indoors in general.

Lots of vaccinations, but evidently the efficacy declines pretty quickly which would negate it from the calculus. Antivaxers are still around, assured by their survival that they are truly immune or that it’s all an overblown hoax. I’m seeing a lot less caution as well, and the variants we have are a bit more vicious. Gonna go with 2,000.

Since you started this thread there is now another variable: the new omicron variant which may well spread much for easily than Delta.

The ranges in the poll don’t quite overlap, so I’m assuming they’re “Up to x thousand”, so I chose 2000/day. I’m actually expecting about 1500/day, though.

About half the US population is properly vaccinated, and taking reasonable precautions, so the death rate will likely be about half what it was same time last year before vaccination became easily available.

But yeah, the new Omicron variant might blow it all out of the water.

Oops. I was thinking approximately XXXX, and you can round up or down to whichever you think is closer.

Remember that the older age groups have a much higher death rate than the younger groups, but note that:

The CDC reports 98.5% of adults 65 and older have received at least a first vaccine dose as of Wednesday, while 85.8% are fully vaccinated.

Yeah, but half the younger group seem determined to catch COVID, so that balances out.

And yet the death rates per infection are not markedly better than they were a year ago. This I do not understand.

The obvious caveat of ‘it depends’ is factored into my own vote. Basically, it will depend on how bad this new variant really is…and whether or not the current vaccination regimes will continue to be effective and/or how quickly they can roll out targeted new vaccinations if it’s really nasty and the current ones aren’t effective.