Last winter, in spite of mask mandates, in spite of limits to how many people were supposed to gather for the holidays, just under 100,000 Americans died in January (99,998 subtracting Snowboarder_Bo’s January 1 cumulative deaths from February 1 cumulative deaths) and another 42,961 Americans died over the next two weeks. Averaging those 45 days we get 3177 deaths a day.
So…how many people do you think will end up dying a day over the course of those same 46 days in 2022?
On one hand compared to a year ago we have far fewer mask mandates and unrestricted travel and unlimited size of gatherings, possibly significantly waning immunity of those who were vaccinated first (i.e. the elderly and immune compromised) and freaking delta. Plus, in colder states like where I am, cases have risen sharply the past 2 weeks.
On the other we have a lot of vaccination of those ages 12 and up, and just within the past 2 weeks kids ages 5-11 have become eligible for vaccination (though only a million or so kids 11 or younger have been vaccinated yet) and booster shots (which 1 in 3 people over 65 have gotten).
Which of these sets of variables do you weigh more heavily as we stare down the barrel of another holiday season?
What do you anticipate the average daily covid death toll in the US to be from January 1 to February 15?
- less than 1000/day
- more than 5000/day